The 2023 NFL playoffs begin Saturday, and the new overtime rules that were spurred by last year’s divisional round shootout between the Bills and Chiefs are now in effect.
“Play will continue regardless of how many overtime periods are needed for a winner to be determined.”
Thank you, Josh Allen.
Everything you need to know for wild-card weekend and beyond can be found in today’s newsletter. Buckle up. It’s playoff time.
In today’s Winners Club you’ll find:
Betting Breakdowns for Wild-Card Matchups
The march to Super Bowl LVII is about to begin.
Review all six matchups taking place Saturday, Sunday and Monday, complete with spreads, totals, betting breakdowns and picks and prop bet advice.
And be sure to consult the team-by-team betting profiles for the AFC and NFC competitors first.
Saturday
4:30 p.m. ET (Fox): Seahawks vs. 49ers (-9.5) | Total: 42.5
SEA-SF Betting Preview and Pick | Player Prop Bets
“The Niners were favored and easily covered the spread in both regular-season games. Jimmy Garoppolo got the win in Week 2, while rookie Brock Purdy led San Francisco to a Week 15 victory. Both games went under the SI Sportsbook total.” — Jen Piacenti
8:15 p.m. ET (NBC): Chargers (-2.5) vs. Jaguars | Total: 47.5
LAC-JAX Betting Preview and Pick | Player Prop Bets
“When these two teams faced off in Week 3 in Los Angeles, Jacksonville pulled off the 38-10 upset in a game where the Chargers were favored by 6.5 points. Justin Herbert threw only one touchdown pass with receiver Keenan Allen sidelined.” — Piacenti
Sunday
1 p.m. ET (CBS): Dolphins vs. Bills (-13.5) | Total: 43.5
MIA-BUF Betting Preview and Pick | Player Prop Bets
“The two AFC East rivals split the season series with Miami covering the spread in both contests. The Bills are 8-2 straight-up (SU) but are just 4-5-1 ATS over the last 10 games in the heated rivalry dating back to 2018.” — Frankie Taddeo
4:30 p.m. ET (Fox): Giants vs. Vikings (-2.5) | Total: 47.5
NYG-MIN Betting Preview and Pick | Player Prop Bets
“It’s the Giants, a popular upset pick that outperformed expectations by all accounts under first-year head coach Brian Daboll, against the Vikings, whose impressive record was propped up by a seemingly unsustainable mark in one-score games and marred by a few ugly losses.” — Kyle Wood
8:15 p.m. ET (NBC): Ravens vs. Bengals (-9.5) | Total: 40.5
BAL-CIN Betting Preview and Pick | Player Prop Bets
“After upsetting the Bengals, 19-16, as three-point home underdogs back in Week 5, the Ravens were beaten soundly last week by Cincinnati, 27-16. Baltimore has won six of the last 10 meetings against Cincinnati but—more importantly for bettors—the Bengals hold a decisive 6-3-1 ATS edge.” — Taddeo
Monday
8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN): Cowboys (-2.5) vs. Buccaneers | Total: 45.5
DAL-TB Betting Preview and Pick | Player Prop Bets
“The Bucs dominated the Cowboys in Week 1 (19-3), but they finished the year with only six wins in their final 15 matchups. Their saving grace is Tom Brady, who has a 35-12 record in the postseason with seven Super Bowl titles.” — Shawn Childs
Super Bowl and Playoff Predictions
The odds for each team to win the 2023 Super Bowl can be found here. The Chiefs enter as the favorites with the Bills a close second and the Dolphins and Giants have the longest odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
SI Sportsbook also offers markets with longer odds where you can bet on the matchup or even the exact result for larger payouts. A matchup between the 1-seeds, Kansas City and Philadelphia, would only pay out +600 odds, but a long shot Dolphins-Vikings Super Bowl is +400000.
Our expert picks can be found here. I was in on Bills-Eagles before the season and I’m not backing off that now.
We also asked our writers to recommend three bets for this weekend: A lock, an upset pick and a prop bet. There was quite a bit of difference of opinion, save for the Giants being a common upset pick. See everyone’s rationale for their selections.
Playoff Yards Leader Odds and DFS Picks
You’ve already seen our writers’ prop bet picks for the six wild-card games taking place this weekend.
SI Sportsbook is offering three intriguing specials for bettors to wager on that last the entire postseason. You can bet on which player will lead the playoffs in passing yards, rushing yards and receiving yards. Our writers broke down each of those markets below, where you can also find the odds for the top five contenders.
Playoffs Passing Yards Leader:
Josh Allen +225
Patrick Mahomes +300
Jalen Hurts +550
Joe Burrow +600
Brock Purdy +800
Playoffs Rushing Yards Leader:
Christian McCaffrey +450
Miles Sanders +600
Josh Allen +600
Isiah Pacheco +850
Joe Mixon +900
Playoffs Receiving Yards Leader:
Stefon Diggs +600
Ja’Marr Chase +800
Travis Kelce +900
Gabriel Davis +1200
A.J. Brown +1200
Another great way to stay engaged throughout the playoffs is by participating in DFS leagues.
Piacenti has picks for Saturday leagues that are broken down by the tier of player: top-tier, mid-tier and bargain-tier. I really like Purdy as a bargain option given the way he’s played since taking over as the starter.
Shawn Childs employs a different approach in his advice for Sunday leagues, where he advises DFS players on the best stacks to assemble to maximize scoring.
In Other News
Relive the 2022 Fantasy Season with the Fabby Awards: Michael Fabiano shares his awards picks for everything from MVP to breakout player of the year to bust of the year.
NFL Awards Picks Voting Breakdown from the MMQB Staff: With the regular season in the rearview, let’s look back at the year that was and get an idea of what expanded ballots might look like for each award.
Raiders Will Cut Derek Carr if Not Traded by Mid-February: Las Vegas will reportedly release its veteran quarterback if it’s unable to trade him by Feb. 15. Carr posted a goodbye to Raiders fans Thursday on Twitter.
Lottery Picks Uncertain in Latest NBA Mock Draft: By now, you probably know the names expected to be called first in the 2023 draft: Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson. In Jeremy Woo’s latest mock draft, he takes team needs into account in predicting all 58 picks.
AFC Championship Could be Played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium: The potential neutral site AFC championship game between the Bills and Chiefs will be played at the Falcons’ home stadium. A resolution was agreed upon following the cancellation of the Bills-Bengals Week 17 game to address the unequal number of games played as it relates to seeding.
NBA Awards Watch at the Season’s Midway Point: See which players are making their case for MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year and Most Improved Player and which coaches could be up for Coach of the Year as teams cross the 41-game mark.
Thanks for reading Winners Club! Enjoy your wild-card weekend. I’ll talk to you next week.
