Category: Betting

The Kentucky Derby is one of the hardest horse races to bet because it’s unknown territory for the equine competitors. They’ve never run this far and never been part of a field this size. With 20 3-year-olds going 1¼ miles, things can get wild and weird.

But that won’t stop the betting public from trying. It might be a fool’s errand trying to hit the Derby, but it’s also a badge of honor. You have to take a swing, if only for the bragging rights if you somehow get it right. 

Accordingly, this is how I would bet $100 in the 150th Run for the Roses on Saturday at Churchill Downs. (Disclaimer: If you unwisely choose to follow my sketchy strategy, that’s a you problem and not a me problem.)

Fierceness is the deserving favorite, and in early wagering, he was bet down from 5–2 to 2–1 as of Thursday afternoon. As is often the case in the gossipy racetrack world, there has been a lot of whispering about whether Fierceness has lost his fastball this week. I’m not buying it.

He’s not physically imposing and isn’t a dazzling morning galloper, but when asked to race, his best is far better than any of his competition. He could, to use a racing term, “bounce” (regress) off his massive Florida Derby effort and still win. Fierceness has the raw speed to get away from early traffic problems as long as he breaks well. 

I look for him to be on or near an honest pace before taking command of the race with about five furlongs to go. If the first half mile is run faster than 46 seconds, that will tax the front-runners; if it’s 46 or slower, they’re in good shape. John Velazquez, Fierceness’s excellent jockey, could dictate the early fractions if he gets to the lead without serious pressure.

The win bet: $40 on Fierceness.

Most of the other $60 will go into exotics in search of a bigger payday. I’ll play a $5, three-horse exacta box with Fierceness, Sierra Leone (5–1 as of Thursday afternoon) and Just A Touch (a juicy 14–1). That bet—which calls for two of those three to finish 1-2, in any order—will cost $30.

I’ll also take a swing at a $1 trifecta part wheel, trying to hit the top three finishers. I’ll play Fierceness and Sierra Leone in first with those two, Just A Touch, Catching Freedom (8–1) and Forever Young (8–1) in both the second and third spots. That’s a $24 bet.

I’ll play a $2 Oaks-Derby double, which is picking the winners of both the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and the Derby on Saturday. The wager there will be on Thorpedo Anna in the Oaks and Fierceness in the Derby.

The last four dollars are simply to avoid actively hating myself. I’ll place a $2 win bet on the horse that’s looked good every morning on the track but I don’t have covered otherwise (Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold at 34–1) and $2 to win on the longest shot on the board (currently Society Man at 59–1). The latter hedge bet is in deference to the Rich Strike fluke-burger win in 2022.

Good luck to everyone. We can all complain about how bad our wagers turn out Saturday night.

The 150th Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday, May 4, at the famous Churchill Downs racecourse. The sesquicentennial celebration is shaping up to be a good one, with a loaded field of competitors backed by the always-high energy surrounding the Louisville race track. It should be a memorable race.

As post time approaches, it is important to take stock of the horses the audience will see on the racetrack and the odds each has to win. Part of what makes the Derby so popular is that there are very few regular competitors. The audience is annually introduced to a new grouping of horses and jockeys. There is comfort in the familiar, true, but there's always something special about the Derby and the horse that gets to capture lightning in the bottle yearly.

Here's what this year's crop looks like.

Kentucky Derby Horses 2024

Below is a full list of the 20 horses (and their morning line odds to win, as of time of publication) participating in this year's Kentucky Derby, as per the event's official website.

Fierceness: 5-2
Sierra Leone: 3-1
Catching Freedom: 8-1
Forever Young: 10-1
Just A Touch: 10-1
Dornoch: 20-1
Honor Marie: 20-1
Just Steel: 20-1
Track Phantom: 20-1
Stronghold: 20-1
Reilience: 20-1
Mystik Dan: 20-1
Catalyic: 30-1
T O Password: 30-1
Endlessly: 30-1
Domestic Product: 30-1
Epic Ride: 30-1
Grand Mo The First: 50-1
Society Man: 50-1
West Saratoga: 50-1

The group features horses with straightforward favorites and other underdogs and great storylines, like West Saratoga, whose trainer is battling cancer.

How Many Horses Race in the Kentucky Derby?

Each year, 20 horses are permitted to run in the Kentucky Derby. It was not always this way, however. The first Kentucky Derby, held 150 years ago, had 15 horses in the field and the number fluctuated from year to year until 1974. That year's Derby featured 23 horses, which prompted criticism from assembled media and the jockeys themselves. From 1974 on, the Derby was capped at 20 horses to ensure the field was competitive without putting too many bodies on the racetrack.

It's also part of what makes the Derby unique. Other major horse races, such as the Preakness and Belmot Stakes, have a maximum of 14 horses participating every year. When the question was raised a few years ago of why the Derby stuck with 20 instead of whittling down the field to match other events of its ilk, the length and popularity of the race was cited by Churchill Downs' senior director of communications, per the Courier-Journal.

In short, the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance permits there to be more horses on the track, and as the capstone event of the year it can be afforded a larger field.

How Does a Horse Qualify For the Kentucky Derby?

To qualify for the 2024 Kentucky Derby, each horse in the field had to run in a series of designated races, titled The Road to the Kentucky Derby. These races, which number in the dozens, take place all over the world between each Derby. The top five horses in each race are awarded a certain number of points.

At the end of the racing season, the top 20 horses in terms of points totaled throughout the year are awarded a post at the Kentucky Derby.

Now you're primed and ready to engage in the horse racing discourse for this year's Kentucky Derby. Enjoy the race.