Postseason player prop markets are intriguing wagers as bettors weigh both the talent and success of individual players and gauge how long their playoff runs will last. That’s the case for one of three SI Sportsbook playoff specials: most playoff receiving yards.
This is one scenario where having the bye is actually a disadvantage for players on teams who earned the No. 1 seeds as they automatically have one fewer game on their schedule. This postseason, that applies to the Chiefs and Eagles, which might be why Travis Kelce and A.J. Brown can be found at slight discounts.
Before getting into the market, let’s look at the players who led the playoffs in receiving yards in recent years to inform our betting decisions.
To no surprise, Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp led the way in 2021 with 478 yards. It should be noted the Rams not only went to the Super Bowl last year, but did so as a No. 4 seed, so Kupp had four games to hit this mark. In 2020, Kelce led all players with 378 en route to a Chiefs’ Super Bowl win. Kansas City did earn a bye, so Kelce accomplished this in three games.
Davante Adams is an outlier on this list as his 298 receiving yards were the most in the 2019 playoffs and the Packers fell short of the Super Bowl. He did that in only two games as Green Bay also earned the bye that year. In 2018 and 2017, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola finished first with 388 and 348 receiving yards, respectively, on Patriots teams that had a bye and made the Super Bowl.
That means four of the five players to lead the playoffs in receiving yards were on teams that made the Super Bowl, though having the bye was not necessarily a huge obstacle to overcome. Now, let’s see how the odds stack up for the coming postseason and where the value might lie.
2023 NFL Playoffs Passing Yards Leader Odds
Stefon Diggs: +600
Ja’Marr Chase: +800
Travis Kelce: +900
Gabre Davis: +1200
A.J. Brown: +1200
George Kittle: +1600
Deebo Samuel: +1600
CeeDee Lamb: +1600
Tee Higgins: +1800
Juju Smith-Schuster: +1800
Brandon Aiyuk: +1800
DeVonta Smith: +1800
Justin Jefferson: +2000
Keenan Allen: +3000
Mike Evans: +3300
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: +3300
Dallas Goedert: +3300
Austin Ekeler: +3300
Chris Godwin: +3500
Tyler Boyd: +4000
Mike Williams: +4000
Tyreek Hill: +4500
Michael Gallup: +4500
Dalton Schultz: +5000
Jerick McKinnon: +5000
Mark Andrews: +5000
Adam Thielen: +5000
Contenders
Stefon Diggs (+600)
Stefon Diggs finished with 1,429 receiving yards in 16 games this season, good for fifth-most in the NFL and the second-most in his career. He was by far quarterback Josh Allen’s favorite target and saw 154 targets. hauling in 108 of them. Diggs had some poor games by his standards in December, totaling 37 and 26 yards in two contests, both wins.
Diggs’s best playoff run was in 2020 when Buffalo made the AFC championship game. He finished third among all receivers with 311 yards across three games. He was not nearly as effective in 2021, though. Diggs tallied 67 yards in two games and only accounted for seven yards in the divisional round game against Kansas City.
The Bills (+400) have the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl, meaning a long playoff run could be in order.
Travis Kelce (+900)
Kelce’s 1,338 receiving yards fell short of setting a new career-high, but they were enough to finish eighth in the NFL. With Tyreek Hill now in Miami, the undisputed No. 1 option for the league’s best quarterback was targeted 152 times and caught 110 passes, which was a career-best mark and the third-most in the league. Two of Kelce’s three worst games came in the Chiefs’ final last two regular-season contests: He had 43 and 38 yards in Week 17 and 18, respectively.
In 2020, Kelce set playoff career-highs in receptions (31) and targets (40) on his way to leading the playoffs in receiving yards. He was Patrick Mahomes’s most-trusted target on the way to a second consecutive Super Bowl appearance.
Kansas City has a first-round bye but is the favorite (+350) to win the Super Bowl, which would mean three games for Kelce to rack up yards.
Sleepers
Justin Jefferson (+2000)
Justin Jefferson’s 1,809 receiving yards led the league by 99 yards. It was the most he’s logged so far in his young career and he finished with more than 100 yards nine times this season—and more than 200 once.
This will be his first-ever playoff appearance and his stay could be short-lived. The Vikings are a slight favorite in the first round against the Giants and they have long odds to make any sort of run in the NFC, let alone to the Super Bowl. Eight teams have better odds than Minnesota (+800) to win it all.
The case for Jefferson leading the postseason in receiving yards is either an improbable run from his team or two ridiculous games, a la Adams in 2019, which isn’t necessarily out of the question for the third-year pro.
Mike Evans (+3300)
Even in a difficult year for the Buccaneers, Mike Evans kept his streak of 1,000 yard seasons alive. He logged 1,124 yards in 15 games, his most since 2019, and he crossed the 1,000-yard threshold in Week 17 with a bang, going for 200 yards and three scores against the Panthers, by far his best game.
No player in NFL history passed more than Tom Brady this season. His 733 attempts and 490 completions both set records and Evans was one of the biggest beneficiaries of this pass-happy attack. Evans had 236 yards in the 2021 postseason across two games.
Tampa Bay is a home underdog in the wild-card round against the Cowboys, so its postseason could be over rather quickly, though that almost never seems to be the case for Brady-led teams.
BET: Travis Kelce (+900)
Kelce is the only player on this list who’s accomplished this feat before and he’s available at what feels like a bargain price. The Chiefs are as sure a bet you can get to at least appear in the conference championship, if not the Super Bowl, which means more yards for Mahomes’s go-to option. Kelce has topped 200 yards receiving in three consecutive postseasons. He’s the best play here.
