With the kickoff to the NFL playoffs only days away, SI Sportsbook is adding intriguing futures markets for sports bettors.
Outside of Super Bowl futures, one of the most popular offerings involves predicting which quarterbacks will lead the league in postseason passing yards.
From a sportsbook perspective, the handle on these types of offering continues to soar as bettors look to invest on either quarterbacks from their favorite team or backing those whom they believe will pilot their teams to Super Bowl LVII.
At first glance, what sticks out is that two elite AFC signal-callers sit atop the betting board prior to any postseason passes being tossed.
In order to find a winning investment in this market, you need to correctly wager on a quarterback who will lead his club to the Super Bowl and thus play in the most playoff games. A quick historical dive reveals that dating back to 2010 postseason, every winner in this market advanced to play on the game’s biggest stage: 2021 Matthew Stafford (1,188); 2020 Tom Brady (1,061); 2019 Patrick Mahomes (901); 2018 Brady (953); 2017 Brady (1,132); 2016 Brady (1,137); 2015 Cam Newton (761); 2014 Brady (921); 2013 Peyton Manning (910); 2012 Joe Flacco (1,140); 2011 Eli Manning (1,219); 2010 Aaron Rodgers (1,094).
Let’s dive in closer.
2023 NFL Playoffs Passing Yards Leader Odds
Josh Allen +225
Patrick Mahomes +300
Jalen Hurts +550
Joe Burrow +600
Brock Purdy +800
Tom Brady +1000
Justin Herbert +1400
Dak Prescott +1600
Kirk Cousins +1800
Trevor Lawrence +3500
Tua Tagovailoa +4000
Daniel Jones +5500
Lamar Jackson +6000
Geno Smith +6600
CONTENDERS
Josh Allen (+250)
Josh Allen threw for the third-most yards in his five-year career, which resulted in finishing seventh among all quarterbacks in passing yards (4,283). Buffalo, thanks to the superb talents of Allen, is primed for another deep playoff run as the Bills look for their first Super Bowl appearance since 1993. The dual threat signal-caller is listed ahead of Patrick Mahomes due to Buffalo playing in the wild-card weekend, while Kansas City earned the 1-seed and the first-round bye. Playing this weekend affords Allen an extra game of stats to accrue yardage. However, Allen will likely have to make it past Cincinnati in the divisional round in order to not lose that advantage if Mahomes advances to the AFC Championship Game.
Patrick Mahomes +300
Mahomes led the NFL in passing yards (5,250) for the first time in his outstanding career. Kansas City is poised to make its third Super Bowl appearance since 2019 thanks to the production of star gun-slinger, who will likely be named NFL MVP for the second time. Tight end Travis Kelce anchors the Chiefs potent passing and finding Mahomes listed behind Allen offers solid value for bettors. He will give the field a head start due to the bye, but he wont stay behind for long.
SLEEPERS
Joe Burrow (+600)
Bettors don’t have to look far down the betting board to find the best value sleeper in this market. Joe Burrow, who threw for the fifth-most passing yards (4,475) in 2022, will be looking to make his second consecutive Super Bowl appearance. Loaded with arguably the best tandem of wideouts in the NFL playoffs in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Burrow is sure to attract attention at healthy +600 odds. The potential divisional round matchup against Buffalo looms as one of the best games of the playoffs.
FINAL BETTING BREAKDOWN
The winner in this market will likely come from the top five options of Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy. However, the shoulder concerns for Hurts and the ‘game-manager’ philosophy for Purdy leads me away from the NFC options. Although Mahomes will start off behind both Allen and Burrow, they will likely face off in the divisional round and that makes me shy away from investing in either of them. I have no issue investing in the NFL’s best quarterback at solid +300 odds to continue his torrid regular-season production. Give me the 2022 NFL MVP.
BET: Patrick Mahomes (+300)
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