The Commanders have nothing to gain when they host the Cowboys at FedEx Field on Sunday, having already been eliminated from playoff contention.
Dallas, which has already clinched a spot in the postseason, has an outside shot at moving up from the No. 5 seed in the NFC to the No. 1 seed. It would take a win and losses by the Eagles and 49ers for that to happen. The scenario may be unlikely, as Philadelphia and San Francisco are double-digit favorites against the Giants and Cardinals, respectively, but it’s certainly not out of the question.
When these teams last met way back in Week 4, the Cowboys, at the time quarterbacked by Cooper Rush, came away with a 25-10 win. Dallas is going for its second consecutive season sweep of its division foe while Washington can salvage a .500 campaign and end a three-game skid with an upset win.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Odds
Moneyline: Cowboys (-250) | Commanders (+205)
Spread: DAL -5.5 (-110) | WAS +5.5 (-110)
Total: 41 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Jan. 8, 2023 | 4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Cowboys Straight-Up Record: 12–4
Cowboys Against the Spread Record: 10–6
Commanders Straight-Up Record: 7–8–1
Commanders Against the Spread Record: 7–8–1
Bet on Cowboys-Commanders at SI Sportsbook
The Cowboys’ vaunted defense has not had the same success it had early in the season as of late. It recently allowed 23 to the short-handed Texans, a season-worst 40 against the Jaguars and 34 versus the Gardner Minshew-led Eagles.
But due to the recent play of Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and the two-headed backfield, Dallas is 6–1 over its last seven games. Prescott has thrown for at least 250 yards in each of his last four games and Lamb has accounted for at least 100 of those aerial yards in his last three.
Prescott does have seven interceptions, half his season total, over that same stretch, though the Washington defense isn’t known for picking off passes.
A season after leading the league in scoring, the Cowboys are up to No. 2 by averaging 28.8 points per game. And even after a down stretch, the defense allows the sixth-fewest points (19.8) and leads the league in turnovers (32).
The Commanders will also be trotting out a different quarterback in the rematch; Taylor Heinicke is the starter, again. Carson Wentz got the start against Dallas earlier in the year prior to his injured reserve stint and he started last week for the first time since Week 6 with the team’s playoff life on the line. He tossed three interceptions and no touchdowns in a loss to the Browns and Washington was later eliminated when the Packers and Lions both won.
Now it’s Heinicke’s turn once again, and there’s a chance rookie Sam Howell makes his debut in the season finale. Even with so much turnover at quarterback, Terry McLaurin put together another 1,000-yard season, though he was held to 15 yards on two catches against the Cowboys. Rookie running back Brian Robinson has also come on late in the year with 20-plus carries and 85-plus rushing yards in three of the last four games.
Washington’s league-average defense (21.1 points per game) cannot make up for its bottom-10 offense (18.4 points per game). The team has had more success with Heinicke under center than Wentz, but he’s winless in his last three starts.
Odds and Betting Insights
Dallas covered its most recent two games but is just 4–4 against the spread over its last eight. It covered a three-point spread against Washington early in the year in a game that stayed under the 41-point total. The over hits in Cowboys games at one of the highest rates in the league (9–7) and it has done so in five of their last six.
The Commanders’ late-season collapse includes an 0–4 mark against the spread in recent weeks. Just five Washington games have hit the over this season and it’s only happened once over the last six games.
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