The AFC South champion Jaguars (9-8) host the Chargers (10-7) for Saturday evening’s wild-card weekend matchup. The Chargers are slight 1.5-point road favorites and the game total is set at 47.5 points.
When these two teams faced off in Week 3 in Los Angeles, Jacksonville pulled off the 38-10 upset in a game where the Chargers were favored by 6.5 points. Justin Herbert threw only one touchdown pass with receiver Keenan Allen sidelined.
Both the Jaguars and the Chargers have found more rhythm since the beginning of the season, and this game total suggests we should see both put up a good fight. Both teams are expected to be fully healthy, with wide receiver Mike Williams expected to return to practice this week for the Chargers after suffering a back contusion in last week’s loss to the Broncos.
The Jaguars have a top-10 offense and average 23.8 points per game. Sophomore Trevor Lawrence has flourished in his first season under Doug Pederson with receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones and tight end Evan Engram all emerging as major receiving threats. The Jaguars’ run game is in excellent shape with Travis Etienne Jr., who logged 1,106 yards in 16 games.
Jacksonville’s balanced passing and running attack has produced 357.4 total yards per game this year (10th), while its 41.9% 3rd down completion rate ranks ninth.
Expect Lawrence to use his mobility and Etienne to put up big numbers versus a Chargers’ run defense that has allowed an average of 148.5 rushing yards per game (28th), while Los Angeles allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards..
At a glance, the Chargers’ offense looks very similar to the Jaguars on paper. Los Angeles averages 23 points per game (13th), 359.3 yards per game (ninth) and converts 43.6% of third downs (eighth). However, despite having one of the top running backs in Austin Ekeler, the Chargers’ ground game is not a major part of their attack. The Chargers’ 89.6 rushing yards per game rank 30th in the league.
Herbert’s 269.6 passing yards per game ranked third behind only Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. With Allen, Williams, Josh Palmer and the pass-catching Ekeler all healthy, the Chargers should be expected to try to air it out versus a Jacksonville team that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game this year.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Wild-Card Odds
Spread: LAC -1.5 (-110) | JAX +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: LAC (-125) | JAX (+105)
Total: 47.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Jan. 14, 2023 | 8:15 p.m. ET | NBC
Chargers Straight-Up Record: 10-7
Chargers Against The Spread Record: 11-5-1
Jaguars Straight-Up Record: 9-8
Jaguars Against The Spread Record: 8-9
Bet on Chargers-Jaguars at SI Sportsbook
Odds and Betting Insights
Here are some trends to consider when placing your wagers.
The Chargers are 7-2 against the spread (ATS) as the away team, while the Jaguars are 4-3 ATS as the home team Los Angeles is -1 ATS as an away underdogs, while Jacksonville is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Chargers’ games have gone over only six times this season, while Jaguars games have gone over only eight.
BET: Chargers -1.5 (-110)
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