There are six teams on bye this week, but there’s still plenty of action for Sunday’s slate! Game totals are higher this week than last at SI Sportsbook, and that makes it more fun to bet some overs. This week, I am targeting a number of running backs that are in good situations. I also will bet the over on both Justin Jefferson’s and Terry McLaurin’s receiving props when they are released. As of this article, they haven’t been offered, but both wideouts should have big days on Sunday. If the receiving prop is 66 or fewer for Josh Palmer of the Chargers, also jump on that one.
Let’s take a look at some SISB player props where you can lock in some early value!
Now that Travis Etienne is the bell cow in Jacksonville, expect solid production.
Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA Today Sports
Travis Etienne over 77.5 rushing yards (-118)
Over 12.5 receiving yards (-120)
Etienne has now rushed for back-to-back 100-yard games. Last week, with James Robinson in New York, Etienne carried the ball 24 times for an average of 6.5 yards per attempt. On the season, Etienne is averaging 6.2 yards per attempt, and he is officially the bell cow now. Even though the Raiders are allowing only 3.92 yards per rush, Etienne would only need 24 attempts to easily clear this rushing prop. The Raiders run defense has allowed 84 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs across the past three contests while also allowing 75.6 yards per game to opposing running backs through the air. In five of eight games this year, Etienne has also had 18-plus receiving yards. Jacksonville has done well to feature its young back, and I don’t see that changing.
Aaron Jones over 65.5 rushing yards (-118)
Jones continues to out-carry AJ Dillon by more than a 2:1 margin, but this Lions run defense is so bad, I am actually looking at props for both players. Jones has continually gashed the Lions. In his last three games vs. Detroit, he has averaged 142 all-purpose yards and totaled seven touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Detroit defense is allowing 131 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game to running backs in 2022. Though Jones has only exceeded this prop three times this year, this is definitely a week to bet the over. I’ll take the over on AJ Dillon’s measly 36.5 as well.
Raheem Mostert over 63.5 (-120)
We bet a Mostert prop last week and we missed it by two yards, but I’m going back to the well! Game script didn’t work in our favor last Sunday, but it should this weekend vs. Chicago. Chase Edmonds is now gone to Denver, and even with Jeff Wilson Jr. now in town, this should be Mostert’s backfield. This Chicago team just surrendered 131 yards and three touchdowns to Tony Pollard. Mostert got to 64 last week on 14 carries, and he hasn’t had fewer than 14 carries since Week 4.
Austin Ekeler receiving TD (+215)
I’m going to specifically bet on an Ekeler receiving TD for a more than two-to-one payout. Why? Well, Justin Herbert is going to be without both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and Ekeler is the most targeted player in Los Angeles (yes, even more than Williams). Ekeler is tied with Williams for a team-high three touchdown catches, and this matchup vs. Atlanta is the perfect opportunity for Ekeler to catch a pass in the end zone. Atlanta has allowed 14 touchdown receptions this season.
Zach Ertz over 38.5 receiving yards (-118)
We can’t do only running backs, so let’s throw in a TE for fun. The Seahawks are allowing a league-leading 10.27 yards per target to opposing tight ends, and Ertz is averaging 7.5 targets and five catches per game. Simple math says take the over. Ertz has exceeded this prop five out of eight times this year.
More betting & NFL coverage:
• NFL Week 9 Betting Guide
• Week 9 Perfect 10 Spreads
• Titans-Chiefs Week 9 Odds, Lines, Spread
• Rams-Bucs Week 9 Odds, Lines, Spread
• Week 9 Power Rankings
