As the NFL season progresses, oddsmakers begin to tighten point spreads. This makes it more difficult for bettors to build bankrolls.
Just look at the Week 5 betting board.
Six of the this week’s 16 games feature lines at SI Sportsbook of seven points or more, including the largest spread of the season at 15.5 points (Steelers–Bills).
When faced with difficult decisions on NFL games, where point spreads can wreak havoc, bettors can often find more value investing in Player Proposition wagers.
For example, betting on markets such as “Anytime Touchdown Scorer”, is a simple and thrilling way to make small investments at plus-odd payouts without having to tackle conventional game spread or point total betting.
It has been proven to be highly profitable to pay attention to game totals assigned to games when looking to target overs on player props and in Week 5 we uncover that only one game (Raiders–Chiefs) has a posted total of 50-plus.
As such, respected money in Las Vegas has targeted two overs and two unders as solid investments. Let’s see where bankrolls should be focused Sunday!
Bet on NFL Player Props at SI Sportsbook
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
With Jimmy Garoppolo under center the last two weeks, Deebo Samuel has returned to being a dominant force in the passing game. The versatile receiver has hauled in 11 of 15 targets for 188 yards and a touchdown over the last two games. The veteran wideout, who has exceeded this receiving yards demand in six of his last eight games, faces a Panthers defense that has allowed four players to surpass this projection of 55.5 receiving yards (Donovan Peoples-Jones, 60; Chris Olave, 147; Tre’Quan Smith, 105; Marquise Brown, 88) through four games.
Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Tee Higgins has been sensational this season, leading the Bengals in receiving yards (315) while slightly outperforming teammate Ja’Marr Chase (293). The third-year wideout has surpassed this projection in three consecutive games this season and in 10 of his last 14 games (including the playoffs and Super Bowl). Baltimore’s defense has allowed four wideouts (Corey Davis, 77; Tyreek Hill, 190; Jaylen Waddle, 171; DeVante Parker, 156) to outperform this projection. The Ravens, who own the league’s worst pass defense and are surrendering 315.3 passing yards, will have their hands full against a powerful Bengals‘ aerial attack. In four career games against Baltimore, Higgins has averaged 79.5 receiving yards per game.
Allen Robinson, WR, Rams UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-158)
The expectations for Allen Robinson playing opposite Cooper Kupp led to fantasy managers fighting to acquire his talents in the early rounds of drafts this summer. However, the veteran is one of the biggest busts in the first month of the season, grabbing only nine receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown. Oddsmakers have Robinson posted with 3.5 receptions against the Cowboys in Week 5 and he just doesn’t appear to be an integral part of the Rams’ offense. The ninth-year wideout has posted two or fewer receptions in three of his first four games this season and has gone under this projection in 10 of his last 15 games. Hitting at a 66.7% clip, it is time to jump aboard the fade train.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Falcons UNDER 23.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Marcus Mariota was superb on the ground in Week 1 against the Saints, rushing for 72 yards and a touchdown. However, over his last three games the veteran quarterback has only rushed for a total of 23 yards against the Rams, Seahawks and Browns. The eight-year signal-caller will now face a stout Buccaneers run defense that has only allowed one quarterback (Patrick Mahomes, 34) to exceed 11 rushing yards.
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting’s Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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