One of the best games of the Week 18 slate takes place in prime-time Saturday night when Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars host Derrick Henry and the Titans with the AFC South division title on the line.
Tennessee will look to snap a six-game losing skid Saturday with a corresponding 0-5-1 against the spread (ATS) mark. The Titans have struggled immensely on offense, averaging a disappointing 10.5 points per game since Week 12.
The Titans have announced that they will start Josh Dobbs under the center for the second straight week in the showdown against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville owns a four-game winning streak and has been a great team to back at the betting window by posting a 6-1-1 ATS mark over their last eight games. The Jaguars are 4-2 ATS at TIAA Bank Field this season but have suffered their two defeats against the number at home as favorites (Texans, Giants).
Oddsmakers have listed Jacksonville with a 6.5-point home demand.
The Titans are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS over the last 10 games in the AFC South rivalry dating back to 2017. Jacksonville won the first meeting this season, 36-22, back in Week 14, covering as three-point road underdogs.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
- Spread: Tennessee +6.5 (-110) | Jacksonville -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: TEN (+225) | JAX (-275)
- Total: 40– Over (-110) | Under 40 (-110)
- Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: TEN 37% | TEN 63%
- Game Info: Jan. 7, 2023 | 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
Titans Straight-Up Record: 7-9
Titans Against The Spread Record: 8-6-2
Jaguars Straight-Up Record: 8-8
Jaguars Against The Spread Record: 8-7-1
Bet on Titans-Jaguars at SI Sportsbook
Odds and Betting Insights
The Jaguars rank eighth in total yards per game (365.8), and should find success against a Titans’ defense that ranks 25th in yards allowed per game (279.3).
Lawrence, who has led the Jaguars to six wins over the last eight games, ranks ninth in the NFL in passing yards (3,901) and touchdowns (24). Despite not throwing a touchdown over the last two games, the second-year quarterback has piloted the club to two dominating victories over the Jets and Texans.
The former No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft was outstanding in the Week 14 meeting, completing 71.4% of his passes for 368 yards and three touchdowns while adding one additional score on the ground.
Lawrence and Travis Etienne, who have combined for 10 rushing touchdowns, face a stout Titans’ rush defense that ranks second in the NFL and surrenders 80.5 rushing yards per game. Tennessee has only yielded nine rushing scores.
Etienne, who rushed for only 32 yards in the first matchup against the Titans, has been outstanding over the last three games. The explosive back has averaged 102.8 yards from scrimmage over the club’s four-game winning streak.
Christian Kirk leads the club in receiving yards (1,009) and touchdowns (seven) but has struggled since Week 12, averaging just 55 yards per game with no touchdowns. The fifth-year wideout finds a favorable matchup against a Titans’ defense that has allowed 19 touchdowns to wide receivers.
The Titans have decided to go with Dobbs over Malik Willis. Willis, a rookie signal-caller from Liberty, only completed just 50.8% of his passes while failing to top 99 yards or throw any touchdowns in his limited game action this season.
On the flip side, Dobbs flashed in the loss to the Cowboys by throwing for 232 yards and a touchdown.
The Titans rested Henry last week against the Cowboys and will lean heavily on the star back who ranks third in the NFL in rushing yards (1,429), while adding the second-most touchdowns (13) on the ground. Prior to sitting in Week 17, Henry topped 100 yards in three straight games while scoring in each of those games.
The elite talent rushed for 121 yards and a touchdown in the Week 14 loss. The former Alabama standout has shined in 12 career games against the Jaguars, averaging 105.3 rushing yards per game while scoring 16 total touchdowns.
Respected money believes a surging Jaguars club should find success and win the AFC South for the second time in franchise history and first time since 2017. Tennessee has been outstanding ATS over the last eight games, covering the spread at a 85.7% clip (6-1-1). The Titans, following the loss of starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, simply do not have enough firepower to keep pace in this matchup. This should be a repeat of the outcome we witnessed Dec. 11.
Let’s play this game in the form of a two-team teaser backing the Jaguars and the over.
EXOTIC BET: Two-team seven-pt teaser: Jax +0.5 / Over 33
Trends
- The Titans are 0-4-2 ATS over their last six games
- Tennessee is 5-1-1 ATS over its last seven road games
- Jacksonville is 4-0 ATS over its last four games
- The under is 10-3 in Tennessee’s last 13 games
- The Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings against Jacksonville
- The under is 9-3 in the last 12 matchups between these teams at TIAA Bank Field
2022 SI Betting NFL Football: 28-31-1+ Props +1.45 U
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 25-20 ATS + Props +5.75 U
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS + Prop Wagers +4.00 U
2021 SI Betting NFL: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 SI Betting NFL: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
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