In the first of two Monday night games this week, the Tennessee Titans are likely to be overmatched as they head to Highmark Stadium in Buffalo. The Bills remain the Super Bowl favorites at SISB at +550 after coming out sharp in their first week of play, crushing the reigning Super Bowl champion Rams, 31-10, and easily covering the -2.5 point spread in that one. The Titans, meanwhile, dropped their Week 1 matchup to the Giants, despite being -5.5 point favorites.
- Spread: Titans +9.5 (+100) | Bills -9.5 (-118)
- Total: 47 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
The Bills have arguably the best QB in the league in Josh Allen and a deep receiving room that features Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Jameson Crowder and Dawson Knox at TE. Davis was on the injury report Friday and is in question for Monday’s matchup, but the Bills have plenty of options to pick up the slack should he not be able to go. Allen’s mobility should match up well with the Titans’ defense that allowed a league-leading 188 yards on the ground to the Giants in Week 1.
The Bills defense looks even more menacing with Von Miller in tow. As a whole, the Bills defense allowed only 47 rushing yards, which could make for a tough matchup for Derrick Henry.
Speaking of Derrick Henry, this game will probably run through the king. Henry gashed the Bills for 143 yards and three TDs in 2021, so I imagine that game plan sticks. Let’s face it, Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers are no Derrick Henry. It’s unlikely the Bills will be able to limit the Titans to only 47 yards as they did the Rams in Week 1.
Even so, Ryan Tannehill has a group of new receivers, and he may not be able to take full advantage of a Rams defense that allowed the 10th-most yards to receivers in Week 1. Just as Akers and Henderson are no Henry, Robert Woods and Treylon Burks are no Cooper Kupp.
The Bills have won 67% of their games when favored since 2021. The Titans have won six as underdogs in the same stretch (tied for second-best). That’s a 75% rate for Tennessee.
Even still, I can’t possibly see Titans upsetting the Bills. I can’t even see them covering. It looks like SISB can’t either. Even with the +9.5, the Titans are plus-money.
Since 2021, Bills games have gone under the game total in 55.6% of contests, while the Titans have gone under in 61.1%.
I’m sticking with the home favorites and playing the under.
The Pick:
Bills -9.5 (-118)
Under 47 (-110)
More betting & NFL coverage:
