One of two ties this entire season occurred the last time the Texans and Colts took the field.
That first meeting between Houston and Indianapolis was the season opener and the second will be the finale. Both teams, which have been out of playoff contention for some time now, will be picking early in the 2023 draft, which means there’s actually incentive for both sides to lose.
The Colts are favored by less than a field goal at home against the Texans, who have the worst record in the NFL and can lock up the No. 1 pick with a loss.
After winning its first game under interim coach Jeff Saturday, Indianapolis has since dropped six in a row. Houston, on the other hand, has been surprisingly competitive of late, pushing the Chiefs to overtime, the Cowboys to the brink and recording a rare win two weeks ago against the Titans.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds
Moneyline: Texans (+120) | Colts (-143)
Spread: HOU +2.5 (+100) | IND -2.5 (-118)
Total: 38 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Jan. 8, 2023 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Texans Straight-Up Record: 2–13–1
Texans Against the Spread Record: 7–8–1
Colts Straight-Up Record: 4–11–1
Colts Against the Spread Record: 6–10
Bet on Texans-Colts at SI Sportsbook
The Texans were held to a season-low three points by the Jaguars in a loss last week. Rookie running back Dameon Pierce and receiver Nico Collins are both on injured reserve, which removes some of the explosiveness from what is already one of the league’s worst offenses.
Houston ranks 31st in scoring (16.1 points per game), 25th in passing yards (190.2 per game) and 31st in rushing yards (88.6). Quarterback Davis Mills has veteran pass-catcher Brandin Cooks to throw to and not much else.
Defense is not as big of a weakness for the Texans, but it’s no strength either. They allowed 30 or more points in three of their last six games and rank 26th in the league in points against (24.3). Houston holds up relatively well against the pass, allowing a little over 200 yards per game, but that’s perhaps a byproduct of its league-worst run defense.
Indianapolis is going back to rookie Sam Ehlinger at quarterback after Nick Foles, the team’s third different starter this season, was injured in the Week 17 loss to the Giants. Ehlinger relieved Foles last week and tossed his first career touchdown. He’ll be without the team’s top weapon, running back Jonathan Taylor, who was placed on injured reserve two weeks ago. Instead, the Colts offense will rely on pass-catchers Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell, as well as running back Zack Moss against the Texans’ porous run defense.
The Indianapolis offense is only marginally better than Houston’s with a nearly identical scoring average (one more point scored) despite slightly better passing (201.9) and rushing (104.4) yard game averages. And the Colts’ defense, which was supposed to be a strength of this team, is 28th in points allowed (24.7). It defends the pass well enough, but struggles to stop the run.
Between these two bottom-tier offenses, neither of which have much incentive to score, it’s no wonder the point total is set below 40.
Odds and Betting Insights
Given their record, it’s somewhat surprising just how good the Texans are against the spread (ATS) this season. They covered three of their last four games and both of their wins have come on the road as underdogs. The under, which has hit 10 times this season for Houston, delivered in six of its last eight game.
The Colts are 3–4 ATS under Saturday and lost their only game as a favorite outright to the Steelers. Though the under has hit more often than not for Indianapolis on the year, the over is 5–2 in its last seven games.
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