The first of two College Football Playoff (CFP) games gets underway when No. 3 TCU takes on No. 2 Michigan in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl.
TCU brings the No. 6 scoring offense (40.3 ppg) into the Fiesta Bowl to battle the country’s No. 5 scoring Michigan defense (13.4 ppg). The Horned Frogs’ impressive numbers were thanks in part to the production of quarterback Heisman trophy runner-up Max Duggan (3,321 passing yards; 36 total touchdowns).
The Horned Frogs enter this showdown off a 31-28 overtime loss to No. 9 Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game and will be eager to show the world they are capable of responding with a big effort on the big stage.
Michigan, who is 13-0 straight-up (SU) and 8-4-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, finished the regular season in strong fashion for bettors by posting a solid 5-1-1 ATS mark since mid-October.
In the midst of those strong showings down the stretch were arguably the two most impressive wins of the season. Michigan dominated No. 4 Ohio State, 45-23, as a nine-point road underdog, followed up by a 43-22 dismantling of Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game as a 16-point favorite.
After earning cashes with Duke (-2) and Kansas (+3) in our initial 2022 Bowl plays, my respected money information from Vegas has posted a 13-6-3 against the spread (ATS) record (68.4%) run over the last 22 plays.
Spread: TCU +7.5 (-118) | Michigan -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: TCU (+240) | MICH (-333)
Total: 58.5– Over (-110) | Under 58.5 (-118)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: TCU 51% | MICH 49%
Game Info: Dec. 31, 2022 | 4 p.m. ET | ESPN
Editor’s Note – Odds are subject to change.
TCU Straight-Up Record: 12-1
TCU Against the Spread Record: 9-3-1
Michigan Straight-Up Record: 13-0
Michigan Against the Spread Record: 8-4–1
Bet on TCU-Michigan at SI Sportsbook
The line has ticked down since opening with Michigan as a nine-point favorite at SI Sportsbook before settling with the Wolverines as only a 7.5-point favorite.
Duggan has been one the most exciting players in the country to watch this season, completing 64.5% of his passes with a stellar 30:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Duggan has displayed great command of Sonny Dykes’s offense, while showing the ability to be an effective runner by rushing for six touchdowns.
The senior quarterback has dangerous weapons in the passing game led by top wideout Quentin Johnston (903 receiving yards; five touchdowns). On the ground, TCU possesses one of the running backs in the country in Kendre Miller, who has amassed 1,342 yards and 17 touchdowns this season. Look for Dykes to try and establish Miller in a less than favorable matchup against Michigan’s No. 3 run defense surrendering only 85.2 rushing yards per game.
The Wolverines, who won’t have leading rusher Blake Corum (1,463 rushing yards, 18 rushing touchdowns) due to a knee injury, are in capable hands thanks to the talents of Donovan Edwards. The sophomore tailback rushed for 185-plus yards and three touchdowns in wins over Ohio State and Purdue.
If TCU is able to shore up its run defense, then this game will fall onto the shoulders of JJ McCarthy (2,376 passing yards; 24 total touchdowns). Michigan’s sophomore signal-caller has been on fire of late, tossing 10 touchdowns while adding three more scores on the ground in his last five games.
Respected money in Vegas is backing a Duggan-led offense to keep this game within the big number. After coming up short in the Big 12 title game, the Horned Frogs will be out to prove they belong among the elite programs in the country.
BET: TCU +7.5 (-118
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2022 SI Betting NCAA Football: 16-14-3 ATS
2021 SI Betting NCAA Football: 14-12 ATS
2020 SI Betting NCAA Football: 32-21 ATS
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting’s Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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