Super Bowl LVII is just around the corner and early passing player props have been released.
SI Sportsbook has the game total listed at 49.5 with the Eagles favored by 1.5 points. The game total and small point spread suggest this game could be an offensive shootout, though bear in mind the Eagles eliminated the 49ers, 31-7, without a single passing touchdown. Meanwhile, a hobbled Patrick Mahomes connected twice with his receivers vs. the Cincinnati defense to earn a victory.
Here are where the player prop lines are opening this week. If you see value, be sure to grab it early.
Passing Touchdowns
Jalen Hurts – 1.5
Over (-118) | Under (-133)
Patrick Mahomes – 1.5
Over (-250) | Under (+155)
Jalen Hurts had 22 passing touchdowns during the regular season. While he did not toss a touchdown vs. the 49ers last weekend, he had two passing touchdowns vs. the Giants in the divisional round. The Chiefs allowed a league-leading 33 passing touchdowns during the regular season, but they have allowed only two passing touchdowns across two postseason games this year.
Remember that Hurts is always a threat with his legs. He led all quarterbacks with 13 regular-season rushing touchdowns and he has one in each playoff game.
Mahomes led all quarterbacks this year with 41 passing touchdowns, six more than both Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. However, the Philadelphia pass defense allowed only 21 passing touchdowns this season and has not yielded a single passing touchdown this postseason. It’s worth mentioning that the Eagles faced the Giants and the Niners – who were missing a healthy quarterback – but nonetheless the defense has been impressive. While Mahomes is hobbled, it did not prevent him from scoring twice in the AFC championship game.
Passing Yards
Jalen Hurts – 242.5
Over (-120) | Under (-120)
Patrick Mahomes – 287.5
Over (-125) | Under (-120)
Hurts averaged 246.7 passing yards per game this season and he’s averaged only 137.5 per game across two postseason games.
The Chiefs allowed 243.5 passing yards per game in the regular season, and they have allowed 243.4 per game in the postseason.
Mahomes led the league with an average of 308.8 passing yards per game this regular season, and he’s thrown for 260.5 passing yards per game this postseason. However, he sustained an injury and did not play the full game vs. the Jaguars in the divisional round. In the AFC championship game, Mahomes threw for 326 yards despite having a high ankle sprain and being sacked three times.
The Eagles ‘defense has been the toughest in the league vs. the pass, allowing 207 passing yards per game during the regular season and 161.5 per game across two playoff games. It’s worth mentioning, of course, they have not faced a quarterback of Mahomes’s caliber in the postseason. If he is unable to run easily due to his ankle, Mahomes could exceed this passing prop if it’s a high-scoring affair.
Interceptions
Jalen Hurts – 0.5
Over (+110) | Under (-167)
Patrick Mahomes – 0.5
Over (-133) | Under (-118)
Hurts threw only six interceptions during the regular season (15 games), and he has yet to throw one in the postseason. The Chiefs had 11 regular-season defensive interceptions, which tied for 21st in the league, but they have three interceptions across only two postseason games played this year.
Mahomes has not thrown a postseason interception, despite not being 100%. He threw 12 during the regular season. That was tied for seventh with Aaron Rodgers and Burrow. The Eagles’ defense tied for fourth in the league with 17 regular-season interceptions and has one postseason interception this year.
Longest Completion
Jalen Hurts – 37.5
Over (-125) | Under (-120)
Hurts exceeded this prop in eight of 15 regular-season contests this season and also in his postseason game vs. the Giants. The Chiefs have allowed only two plays of 30-plus yards in the postseason.
Passing + Rushing Yards
Jalen Hurts – 294.5
Over (-120) | Under (-125)
Hurts has gone way under this mark in both postseason games, but during the regular season he went over this prop in nine of 15 contests.
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