Pittsburgh has the slimmest of slim chances of making the postseason. They need wins over the Ravens and Browns, while all other contending playoff teams for the AFC seventh seed finish with fewer than nine wins. They have weakness in their conference record (3-7) and lose head-to-head tiebreakers to the Patriots and Titans. Also at stake for the Steelers is their streak of 18 consecutive seasons with a .500 or better record. In Week 14, Baltimore beat Pittsburgh 16-14 at home. The Steelers went 5-2 over their past seven matchups, but all of their wins (NO, IND, ATL, CAR, and LV) came over teams with losing records.
Since the injury to Lamar Jackson in Week 13, the Ravens have had three wins and one loss despite scoring only 46 points. Their success was helped by playing a favorable schedule (DEN, @PIT, @CLE, and ATL). On the positive side, Baltimore’s defense allowed only 45 points over this span. The Ravens have the inside track at the five seed in the AFC.
The Steelers defense played much better over their previous seven games since the return of T.J. Watt. They’ve allowed 17 points or fewer in five straight matchups. Over their past 10 contests, Pittsburgh had severe issues vs. top offenses (BUF, PHI, and CIN) in points allowed (38, 35, and 37). Their run defense grades well (392/1,584/7 – 4.0 yards per carry) while picking up the pace in sacks (9) over the last three games. The Steelers held the Saints, Colts, Ravens, and Raiders wide receivers to fewer than 100 yards (7/89, 9/75/1, 7/86, and 7/64/1). Pittsburgh started to run the ball better midseason, but they gained only 3.3, 3.5, and 3.9 yards over the previous three weeks. The Steelers threw more than one passing touchdown once in 2022 (Week 6 vs. Tampa).
Even with Jackson behind center, the Ravens only have eight passing touchdowns since Week 3 (10 over their first three games). In addition, they have the second-worst wide receiver production (117/1,374/7) in the league. Baltimore’s wideouts gained fewer than 95 yards in 10 contests this year. They ran the ball well over the past three weeks (42/215/1, 28/198, and 34/184). On the defensive side of the ball, the Ravens allowed only one rushing touchdown over the previous seven matchups, with a respectable pass rush (44 sacks) on the year.
Steelers vs. Ravens Odds
Moneyline: Steelers (+155) | Ravens (-188)
Spread: PIT +3.5 (-110) | BAL -3.5 (-110)
Total: 36.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Game Info: January 1st, 2023 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Ravens Straight-Up Record: 10-5
Ravens Against The Spread Record: 6-8-1
Steelers Straight-Up Record: 7-8
Steelers Against The Spread Record: 6-9
Bet on Steelers-Ravens at SI Sportsbook
Odds and Betting Insights
The early posting of the betting line by SI Sportsbook may hint that Jackson returns this week. Pittsburgh swept the Ravens in 2019 and 2020. The under in the game total for the Ravens is 10-2 since Week 3, even with the over/under slipping below 40 over the past four games (39.5, 36.5, 38.0, and 34.5).
Both coaching staffs have a long history of winning, and this game projects to be a low-scoring battle. Pittsburgh has the receiving corps to test the Ravens’ defense while also needing their young quarterback to make plays in the heat of an important game on the road.
If Jackson doesn’t play, my investment in this game would be on the Steelers.
- Baltimore is 1-5-1 vs. the spread at home, with the under being the winning play on the betting total in the last six games.
- The Steelers went 7-2 vs. the spread after falling to cover from Week 2 to Week 5. The under has been the correct play in three of their past four matchups but 4-4 in their last eight games.
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