The Week 6 slate features only one game with a game total over 50 at SI Sportsbook and it’s the highly anticipated Bills–Chiefs matchup. It’s easy to play the over on most of those props after the incredible divisional round shootout last season, but I have chosen only one for the value it offers. It’s a fun menu of options for that game, so be sure to check out all the options at SI Sportsbook.
I expect stud wide receivers to perform like stud wide receivers this weekend, while the running back options are not as exciting. The only running prop I am targeting in this article is an under. Keep your eye out for a Rhamondre Stevenson prop for Sunday. One hasn’t been published as of this article, but with Damien Harris out and the soft matchup with the Browns, it’s probably a good running back prop to target if you like to play the over.
Surprisingly, a few tight ends look to be in good value spots this weekend. I’ve listed a couple below among the eight player props to consider Sunday!
Bet on NFL Player Props at SI Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+140)
It won’t be easy versus the Bills, but with the game total set at 53.5 at SI Sportsbook and the Chiefs as 2.5-point underdogs, it sure makes sense that Patrick Mahomes can beat this prop for the fourth time this season. I don’t see Clyde Edwards-Helaire gaining much on this Bills defense that has allowed an average of only 55 rushing yards per game, and this game should be in the hands of the star quarterback. NFL fans are all hoping for another shootout between these two high-powered offenses, so let’s bet on the one that gets us the most value!
Justin Jefferson Over 86.5 receiving yards (-120)
Despite two down games early in the season, Justin Jefferson is still averaging an NFL-best 109.4 receiving yards per game—more than even Cooper Kupp. Jefferson has a 29.4% target share for the Vikings, and he should have no trouble putting up big numbers versus a Miami defense that has allowed 170 yards per game to opposing wideouts (10th-most) and 9.26 yards per target (fourth-most).
Mike Evans Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown (+110)
There’s no debate that Tom Brady’s top option is Mike Evans. Evans averages 79 yards per game and 10.90 yards per target, and leads the Buccaneers with three receiving touchdowns. Pittsburgh has allowed a league-leading 221 yards per game and nine touchdowns to receivers, so Evans is in line for a big day.
Najee Harris Under 44.5 rushing Yards (-120)
My fantasy team hopes I am wrong about this one but, after putting up only 20 rushing yards versus a tough Bills’ run defense last Sunday, I just don’t have a lot of hope for Najee Harris versus the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is a 9.5-point road favorite, so game script doesn’t work in Najee’s favor—nor does the Pittsburgh O-line. Perhaps Harris can still get a few catches from new quarterback Kenny Pickett, but the smart bet here is on the under for the ground game.
David Njoku Over 38.5 receiving yards (-120)
David Njoku Anytime Touchdown (+200)
The Patriots have allowed five touchdowns – an average of one per game – to tight ends this year. They are also allowing an average of 35 yards per game to the position. David Njoku is averaging 58 receiving yards per game and he is tied with teammate Amari Cooper with a 28% red zone target share.
Zach Ertz Anytime Touchdown (+200)
Zach Ertz’s 11 red zone targets for Arizona are a whopping 42.3% share. For reference, Hollywood Brown has the next most with four targets for a 15.4% share. This week, Ertz faces a Seattle defense that has allowed a league-leading seven touchdowns-an average of more than one per game- to tight ends.
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