As we head into Week 5 of the NFL season, only one team remains undefeated and it’s not the Chiefs, Buccaneers, Bills or Packers – it’s the Eagles.
Just like we drew it up, right?
Meanwhile, the reigning AFC champion Bengals are off to a mediocre 2-2 start and the Chiefs and Bills look ready for another AFC postseason shootout.
The reigning Super Bowl champion Rams have been lackluster offensively in their 2-2 start, as have the Bucs and the Packers to start the season.
So, is there some value to be had on SI Sportsbook? Or should we bet on the favorite? Let’s see where the market stands after four games.
Bet on NFL Futures at SI Sportsbook
Buffalo Bills +400
Kansas City Chiefs +700
Philadelphia Eagles +800
Green Bay Packers +1000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1100
Los Angeles Rams +1600
Baltimore Ravens +1600
San Francisco 49ers +1600
Los Angeles Chargers +2000
Minnesota Vikings +2200
Miami Dolphins +2200
Cincinnati Bengals +2500
Dallas Cowboys +2500
Denver Broncos +2800
Jacksonville Jaguars +4500
Tennessee Titans +4500
Las Vegas Raiders +5000
Arizona Cardinals +5000
Cleveland Browns +5000
Indianapolis Colts +6000
New Orleans Saints +6000
New York Giants +8000
New England Patriots +10000
Detroit Lions +12500
Washington Commanders +12500
Atlanta Falcons +15000
Carolina Panthers +15000
Pittsburgh Steelers +15000
Chicago Bears +15000
New York Jets +17500
Seattle Seahawks +20000
Houston Texans +20000
The Bills remain the favorites to hoist the Lombardi trophy. Josh Allen and co. had 6-1 odds entering the season, and they have moved to 4-1 odds after a strong start – including a big come-from-behind win Sunday versus the Ravens. The Bills look strong both offensively and defensively, averaging 28.5 points per game and converting 55.8% of third-down opportunities, while the defense has allowed opponents to average only 14.5 points per game and has logged 13 sacks. After adding Von Miller in the offseason, it’s hard to think the Bills don’t go all the way.
The Chiefs come in right after the Bills at 7-1 odds, after entering the season at +900 odds. No Tyreek Hill? No problem. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes looks as frisky as ever, and the Chiefs’ defense is good enough when the offense is that flexible and explosive. Clyde Edwards-Helaire emerging as a weapon in the run game has been a good development for a 3-1 Kansas City team.
The Eagles have moved up to the third-best odds (+800), knocking Tom Brady and the Bucs down to +1100 odds behind the Packers (+1000). The 2-2 Bucs entered the season at 7-1 odds, while the 3-1 Packers’ odds remain unchanged.
The Eagles have earned their spot with their 4-0 start and look like a complete team both offensively and defensively. Their running game continues to dominate, while quarterback Jalen Hurts also has grown as a passer with talented weapons A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. The Eagles have allowed only 17.8 points per game, while scoring 28.8. The pathway through the NFC looks easier than the AFC, making the Eagles an appealing pick – though they were far more attractive entering the season at +1800 odds.
The Rams (+1600), Ravens (+1600) and Dolphins (+2200) are all intriguing values. I would have said before the season the Dolphins have no chance because they’d have to get through the Bills but, after defeating Buffalo in Week 3, Miami looks like a contender if quarterback Tua Tagovailoa remains healthy.
The Cowboys (+2500), Vikings (+2200) and the Giants (+8000) have all started strong with 3-1 records, but the best value is with the Cowboys, who dropped from +1800 odds entering the season. Despite playing without Dak Prescott, Dallas is getting it done on the back of its sharp defense and backup quarterback Cooper Rush. The Vikings have seen their odds improve from +3300, so the time to grab them was one month ago. The Giants will sputter out any day now.
The Chargers should be considered at +2000 odds after entering the season with +1400 odds. Defensive losses and Justin Herbert‘s injury have moved the market.
Finally, if you love a long shot, the Jaguars could be the play. They are +4500 to win it all and look like a completely different team under new head coach Doug Pederson. The way the Titans and Colts are playing leaves plenty of room for the underdog to sneak in through the AFC South.
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• Week 4 NFL Betting Recap
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• Week 5 Waiver Wire
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