Another NBA season tips off Tuesday and last year’s Finals competitors—who also own the best odds to win the 2023 title—are both in action.
The Celtics, with coach Joe Mazulla at the helm in place of the suspended Ime Udoka, host the 76ers, who made a flurry of offseason moves in hopes of building a competitor capable of advancing past the second round.
Later in the evening, the Warriors welcome the Lakers to the Chase Center, where they will raise their banner in celebration of their fourth title in eight years.
With the return of NBA action, your favorite SI Betting series “SO/UP” is back as well! What exactly does that mean? It’s an acronym that stands for spread, over/under and prop—the three types of bets you can count on for a pair of nationally televised games each and every week.
Now that you know which teams are taking the court, let’s get to what you came here for. Who’s favored? Should you back the underdog? What’s each team’s over/under history? And which prop bets are going to hit, anyway?
It’s all below. Let’s SO/UP.
Bet on NBA Opening Night at SI Sportsbook
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT)
Spread: 76ers +2.5 (-110) | Celtics -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: 76ers (+115) | Celtics (-138)
Total: 215.5 — Over (-118) | Under (+100)
76ers Betting Profile
2021-2022 Regular-Season Record: 51-31 — lost Eastern Conference Semifinals
Against The Spread Record: 38-43-1
Over/Under Record: 39-41-2
Points Per Game (Rank): 109.9 (18)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 107.3 (8)
Celtics Betting Profile
2021-2022 Regular-Season Record: 51-31 — lost NBA Finals
Against The Spread Record: 43-36-3
Over/Under Record: 41-40-1
Points Per Game (Rank): 111.8 (12)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 104.5 (1)
Spread Bet: 76ers +2.5 (-110)
These Atlantic Division foes split their four meetings last season, though Philadelphia went 3-1 against the spread (ATS) against Boston. The 76ers have the upper hand in the most important matchup of the game: Joel Embiid vs. the Celtics’ frontcourt. Boston center Robert Williams III (knee) is out for several weeks, which puts the onus on 36-year-old Al Horford and 6’6” Grant Williams to try to contain Embiid, who won last year’s scoring title by averaging north of 30 PPG. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are going to get theirs but I like Philly to keep it close, if not outright win its fourth season opener in a row. The Embiid matchup issue, the offensive edge that the backcourt of Tyrese Maxey and James Harden have over Marcus Smart and Derrick White as well as this being Mazzulla’s first game as an NBA coach has me fading the Celtics at home.
Over/Under Bet: Over 215.5 (-118)
The under cashed in the two early-season meetings between the 76ers and Celtics and the over hit in both games after Jan. 1, which is when Boston began to come into its own. Even though neither team ranked among the top-10 scoring offenses in the league last year and prided themselves in their defense, their over/under records were around .500. The point total was relatively low in each meeting and the highest was an identical 214.5—they combined for 211. Boston will be without one of its top defenders and both units flashed hot three-point shooting in the postseason, all of which makes me inclined to take the over on this modest total.
Prop Bet: James Harden Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-118)
Harden is one of the premier stat sheet stuffers of our time. In 21 regular-season appearances for the 76ers, he averaged 21 PPG and added 10.5 assists per game and 7.2 rebounds. That’s a combined total of more than 38 points, rebounds and assists, and that scoring average was down several points from what we’ve seen out of Harden in the past. His preseason comments paint the picture of a return to All-NBA form where he easily tops this total. For now, I’m buying in. He’s fully capable of hitting this over on points and assists alone, never mind rebounds.
Time: 10 p.m. ET (TNT)
Spread: Lakers +6 (-110) | Warriors -6 (-110)
Moneyline: Lakers (+205) | Warriors (-250)
Total: 225.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Lakers Betting Profile
2021-2022 Regular-Season Record: 33-49 — Missed playoffs
Against The Spread Record: 35-47
Over/Under Record: 47-35
Points Per Game (Rank): 112.1 (11)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 115.1 (28)
Warriors Betting Profile
2021-2022 Regular-Season Record: 53-29 — Won NBA Finals
Against The Spread Record: 41-37-4
Over/Under Record: 35-45-2
Points Per Game (Rank): 111 (15)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 105.5 (3)
Spread Bet: Warriors -6
The Lakers have lost five consecutive season openers, including last year at home against the Warriors. It will be tough to end that streak Tuesday on the road when the defending champions raise yet another banner. L.A. went 1-3 straight-up against Golden State last year and 2-2 ATS. The Dubs won outright as underdogs in the first meeting and were favored the rest of the way, in one instance by as many as 14, a game which they covered. Remember, it took a 56-point effort from LeBron James to will the Lakers to their one win in the series. This will be Darvin Ham’s coaching debut and Russell Westbrook will potentially come off the bench, a move that could save the season or go south quickly. On a night of celebration, I’m banking on Stephen Curry and a full-strength Warriors team to deliver.
Over/Under Bet: Under 227.5
I’m going against the grain here seeing as the last four meetings went over primarily based on the belief that the Lakers’ defense simply can’t be as bad as it was last season. And even if it is, the Warriors can and will keep a middling L.A. offense from pouring on points. This is a high bar to clear for two offenses that finished outside the top 10 in scoring. If Westbrook is indeed relegated to a sixth-man role, the Lakers could operate at a slower pace than last season.
Prop Bet: Stephen Curry Over 24.5 Points (-133)
Curry has gotten off to some slow scoring starts in recent years. He scored 21 in the first game of the season last year (he also finished with a triple-double), had 20 in the opener a year prior and 23 in his injury-shortened 2019-20 campaign. Coming off his first Finals MVP, I expect Curry to pick up where he left off in June when he averaged better than 30 PPG and five threes to down the Celtics.
DFS Value Plays for Tuesday’s Games
PG/SG Jordan Poole, Warriors (FD: $6,000 | DK: $6,700)
SG/SF Lonnie Walker IV, Lakers (FD: $4,000 | DK: $4,200)
SF/PF Andrew Wiggins, Warriors (FD: $6,800 | DK: $7,000)
PF Grant Williams, Celtics (FD: $4,600 | DK: $3,900)
C/PF Kevon Looney, Warriors (FD: $4,800 | DK: $4,500)
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