The Tuesday night national TV doubleheader pits two pairs of Western Conference contenders against one another.
In the early slot, the Pelicans host the Mavericks. New Orleans is coming off its first loss of the season and will be without one of its best players and potentially more against Dallas, which blew the doors off the Grizzlies over the weekend.
Later in the evening, the Warriors hit the road for the first time this season to take on the Suns. Golden State has the best offense in basketball in the early goings, while Phoenix’s success can be credited to its defense.
Today’s format calls for “SO/UP.” What does that mean? It means I’ve got spread, over/under and prop bets for each game. Let’s get into it.
Bet on Pelicans-Mavericks and Warriors-Suns at SI Sportsbook
Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT)
Spread: Mavericks -4.5 (-110) | Pelicans +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Mavericks (-188) | Pelicans (+155)
Total: 219.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Mavericks Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 1-1
Against The Spread Record: 2-0
Over/Under Record: 1-1
Points Per Game (Rank): 121 (5)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 101.5 (2)
Pelicans Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 2-1
Against The Spread Record: 2-1
Over/Under Record: 3-0
Points Per Game (Rank): 125 (2)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 114 (16)
Spread Bet: Mavericks -4.5 (-110)
New Orleans will be shorthanded when Dallas comes to town Tuesday. Brandon Ingram (concussion) is out and Zion Williamson (hip/back) and Herb Jones (knee) are both questionable. The Mavericks are on two full days of rest coming off a 41-point win against the Grizzlies and they will be at full strength for this Southwest Division showdown. The Pelicans have scored at least 120 in each game this season but will be missing roughly 20 points from Ingram, potentially another 20 from Williamson and Jones, their best perimeter defender to throw at Luka Dončić. Without them, that top-two offense will not be what it’s been through three games and the Mavericks’ defense can divert all of its attention to slowing down C.J. McCollum. Dallas won three of four against New Orleans last year and I expect them to begin the season series with a win, and one against the spread.
Over/Under Bet: Over 219.5 (-110)
This is a low total for how these two offenses have performed. What the Pelicans are missing is baked into it, but Jones’s potential absence would make life easier for the Mavericks outside, where they are connecting on more than 15 threes per game. With Dončić running things, Dallas will get its points—the only worry is how well New Orleans performs without its top scorers. It doesn’t bode well that the Mavericks shut down the Suns and Grizzlies, but so long as the Pelicans get in the neighborhood of 100 points it seems Dallas can take care of the rest.
Prop Bet: Christian Wood Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds (-104)
Christian Wood has shined in limited minutes off the bench this season,. He averages 25 PPG and 10 rebounds in less than 25 minutes of action. Wood is hitting threes, getting to the line, everything the Mavericks need of him on offense. The Pelicans are one of the NBA’s best rebounding teams, so he’ll have to vie with Jonas Valanciunas for rebounds, but the 6’9” center has already shown plenty of promise in a new uniform and perhaps coach Jason Kidd rewards him with an expanded role. Almost even odds feels like a steal for this combo prop.
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns
Time: 10 p.m. ET (TNT)
Spread: Warriors +1.5 (-110) | Suns -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Warriors (+105) | Suns (-125)
Total: 225.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Warriors Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 2-1
Against The Spread Record: 1-2
Over/Under Record: 3-0
Points Per Game (Rank): 125.3 (1)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 120.7 (25)
Suns Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 2-1
Against The Spread Record: 1-2
Over/Under Record: 0-2-1
Points Per Game (Rank): 110 (21)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 104.3 (5)
Spread Bet: Suns -1.5 (-110)
The defending champions had the luxury of starting the season with three straight home games. Now, their first test on the road comes against a Western Conference contender that has already downed two other top teams. The Warriors and Suns have essentially opposite team profiles to date: Golden State has the best offense and a poor defense and Phoenix’s stellar defense has made up for its lackluster offense. Something has to give, and I think it will be the Dubs’ offense. Steph Curry has gotten off to a scorching start with at least 33 points in each contest. There’s no shutting down the best shooter ever, but he can at least be contained, and, more importantly, chased off the three-point line where he’s connecting from five times per game. And Phoenix’s offense—especially Chris Paul—may finally come to life against a Golden State team that hasn’t been able to stop anyone. Say both teams regress toward their mean on either side of the ball, I like the home team in this one by a handful of points.
Over/Under Bet: Under 225.5 (-110)
This is me doubling down on a Suns victory (and cover). If they win the game, they’ll control the pace. Golden State operates at the fastest pace in the league—Phoenix ranks in the bottom five with Paul methodically dissecting defenses. Once again, seeing as every Warriors game has gone over and no Suns game has yet to do so, something will have to give. For what it’s worth, all four regular-season meetings between these teams finished below this figure.
Prop Bet: Devin Booker Over 2.5 Made Threes (-115)
Devin Booker is shooting more than 50% from deep on the year and is averaging exactly three made threes per game. He somewhat inexplicably only attempted one long ball against the Mavericks in the opener, though he got his attempts up over the following two games and his makes increased accordingly to three and then five. Phoenix is relying more on Booker’s offense than it has since Paul joined the team and against a high-powered offense he’ll need to let it fly from outside.
DFS Value Plays for Tuesday’s Games
PG Monte Morris, Wizards (FD: $4,900 | DK: $5,000)
SG Jaden Ivey, Pistons (FD: $6,500 | DK: $6,800)
SF Trey Murphy, Pelicans (FD: $5,600 | DK: $4,800)
C/PF Isaiah Stewart, Pistons (FD: $6,000 | DK: $5,300)
C/PF Kevon Looney, Warriors (FD: $4,800 | DK: $4,600)
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