The 2024 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs came right down to the wire.
Mystik Dan edged Sierra Leone and Forever Young by a nose on Saturday, surging ahead on the final turn and barely holding on to secure an upset victory.
The race was so close it took officials several minutes to officially proclaim Mystik Dan as the winner.
Mystik Dan, guided by jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., previously finished third at the Arkansas Derby in March and won the Grade III Southwest Stakes in February.
“Brian just did an amazing job,” Mystik Dan’s trainer Ken McPeek said after the race. “Just a brilliant, brilliant jockey and ride.”
McPeek completed a career Triple Crown as a trainer, previously winning the Preakness in 2020 with Swiss Skydiver and the 2002 Belmont Stakes with Sarava.
Mystik Dan will have a chance to notch the second title of a Triple Crown pursuit on May 18 at the Preakness Stakes in Baltimore.
For those in the game, horse racing is an accrual of scar tissue. Itās a steady layering of disappointments that is blessedly alleviated by the soothing balm of occasional victory. If hitters in baseball are celebrated for being successful 30% of the time at the plate, thatās still better than horsemenānone of the top 25 North American trainers for 2024 has a win percentage higher than 29.
And no race is harder to capture than the biggest of them all, the Kentucky Derby. Chad Brown is one of the most successful trainers in the sport and Mike Repole is one of the most successful owners, yet the Derby has kicked them around plenty. Theyāre a combined 0-for-14 in the Run for the Rosesābut that stat only scratches the surface of their scars.
This year, maybe, one of them will break through. The irrepressible Repole owns the Derby favorite, Fierceness. The pensive Brown trains the Derby second choice, Sierra Leone. On paper, they appear to loom over their 18 rivals. But paper can be shredded quickly when the starting gate springs open Saturday evening at Churchill Downs.
They know better than to get overly optimistic. Itās all too fragile.
Repole has seen his blue-and-orange racing silksāthe colors of his beloved New York Mets and Knicksāgo to post seven times in the Derby. His best finish is fifth. But the real heartache came in 2011 and again last year, when his best colts were scratched late in the lead-up to the race.
Thirteen years ago, 2-year-old champion Uncle Mo was the second choice in the morning-line odds, having won four out of five career races. But the day before the Derby, Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher pulled Uncle Mo out of the race after he developed an illness that caused him to lose weight.
āI donāt think Iāve ever had a horse as good as Uncle Mo,ā Pletcher said at the time, one year after winning his first Derby with Super Saver.
āUncle Mo, in my opinion, heās five to seven lengths better than any horse in this race,ā Repole said. āAs bad as I want [to] win this race, [Pletcher] is 43 and Iām 42. He looks a lot older than I do, but the bottom line is that weāre going to be around a while.ā
Pletcher and Repole hung around long enough to see gut-punch history repeat in 2023, when favored 2-year-old champion Forte was stunningly scratched by Churchill veterinarians the morning of the Derby. Forte had stumbled slightly during a Thursday breeze on the track and was diagnosed with a foot bruise. In a week rife with racing tragedy, with a dozen horses dying due to a variety of issues, caution prevailed and the colt was sidelined.
āIām devastated,ā Repole said last year. āIām shocked. I think they were overly cautious, but I have to respect the fact that theyāre overly cautious.ā
Last yearās devastation has been rinsed away. An entrepreneur who has made a lot of money in a variety of ways, Repole is a font of optimism. Heās fourth among North American thoroughbred owners in earnings for 2024 and is always looking for his next score. He is not easily discouraged.
āA year after Forte, and I got Fierceness?ā Repole said last week. āWhat great luck. Like, what the f***? Thereās 20,000 foals born every year, and the Derby favorite was one out of 20,000 and now you come back a f***ing year later and you have one out of 20,000 again? What great luck. Iām humbled by this. This is not normal. Three 2-year-old champions.
āNo one should feel bad for Mike Repole. Iāve got a pretty awesome life. Iāve got an awesome familyāmy parents, my daughter, my wife, my friends from childhood. Iām 0-for-7 with [Derby] starters, 0-for-2 with [scratched] favorites, 0-for-9. This will be No. 10. Who would have thought that growing up in Queens and going to Aqueduct, Iād be on my 10th Derby entry? Itās all great.ā
Brown has been teased by the Derby gods even more than Repole. On three separate occasions, heās felt the massive adrenaline rush of seeing his horse enter the home stretch with a chance to wināNormandy Invasion was on the lead in 2013, while Good Magic and Zandon were giving chase in second place in ā18 and ā22. None hit the wire first.
Normandy Invasion faded to fourth after chasing a hot early pace. Good Magic couldnāt catch Justify, a monster on his way to winning the Triple Crown. Zandon dueled with Epicenter before both were passed in deep stretch by a certifiable fluke, 80ā1 long shot Rich Strike.
āWhat a feeling both ways,ā Brown says. āIāve had the fortune of having the feeling that most trainers will never getāwhen you turn for home in the Derby, three times I thought I was going to win.
āThat long walk [to the barn] afterwards, each time I walked back on the track thinking, āIām not positive Iāll be back with a horse quite as good.ā Itās one thing to get a horse to the Derby, but can you get to the quarter pole in the Derby? By the quarter pole, most of them canāt win. Thatās a hard spot to get to.ā
The only spot harder to reach is the Derby winnerās circle. If either Repole or Brown is going to get there this year, it will be via distinctly different race scenarios.
The 5ā2 morning-line favorite, Fiercenessās weapon is sheer speed. A slight, wiry colt, the Repole homebred doesnāt look like much until heās in full flight. Fierceness has lost two of five lifetime races after poor starts, breaking poorly in the Champagne Stakes as a 2-year-old and being pinballed by other horses after the break in the Holy Bull Stakes. But when he breaks cleanly and avoids trouble, itās over.
The most recent evidence of that was a 13Ā½-length blowout in the Florida Derby. Fierceness got to the front, dictated terms and then drew off in a jaw-dropping performance.
āWhen he runs his race, heās just faster than these horses,ā Brown says of his top competition. āIf he gets the position early in the race he likes, and he gets away from there cleanly and he takes to the Churchill track, heās going to be tough to run down. Heās just running a bit faster than these horses. So I respect the horse a lot, and weāll just see how it plays out into that first turn. Iād say that heās a deserving favorite for sure.ā
Sierra Leone, 3ā1 in the morning line, is a closer who will come from off the pace. The regally bred son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner looks the part of a championāheās a physical specimen. His pedigree and conformation led a deep-pocketed ownership group to spend a whopping $2.3 million on him as a yearling in ā22.
āYou could breed literally many thousands of horses and not get one to come out that perfect, in every regard,ā Brown says.
āThereās a lot of pressure associated when the ownership group chooses you to train a sale-topping yearling like this,ā Brown says. āThey have a lot of choices. When they pick you as a trainer, you take a lot of responsibility with that. They donāt apply pressure; you apply pressure yourself. Itās a wonderful group to train for, very experienced ownership. But yes, the expectations are high, so itās extra rewarding to get to at least this moment, to confirm that they made a good decision.ā
Sierra Leone has lost only once, by just a nose, last December. His two 3-year-old races have been stirring stretch wins in the Risen Star and Blue Grass Stakes, displaying the requisite stamina to handle the Derbyās 1Ā¼-mile distance.
The question for Sierra Leone will be traffic, since he will be starting from the problematic No. 2 post and coming from well back in a 20-horse field. There figures to be a lot in the way for jockey Tyler Gaffalione to weave through.
āA big horse with his running style, it does make the trip more challenging,ā Brown says. āIronically in this race, youād probably prefer a handier horse that maybe has a little more speed and is not quite as big, because of the 20-horse field and tight turns at Churchill. But he does have other attributes that you like.ā
Sierra Leone has many attributes. So does Fierceness. Their accomplishments to date have moved them to the forefront of the 150th Kentucky Derbyāso close they can almost touch it. Mike Repole and Chad Brown are just two minutes and change away from a breakthrough victory in a race that has haunted them. But only one can get there, and maybe neither will.
This is the game. Even the most successful horsemen lose far more often than they win, and no race is harder to win than this one.
The Kentucky Derby is one of the hardest horse races to bet because itās unknown territory for the equine competitors. Theyāve never run this far and never been part of a field this size. With 20 3-year-olds going 1Ā¼ miles, things can get wild and weird.
But that wonāt stop the betting public from trying. It might be a foolās errand trying to hit the Derby, but itās also a badge of honor. You have to take a swing, if only for the bragging rights if you somehow get it right.
Accordingly, this is how I would bet $100 in the 150th Run for the Roses on Saturday at Churchill Downs. (Disclaimer: If you unwisely choose to follow my sketchy strategy, thatās a you problem and not a me problem.)
Fierceness is the deserving favorite, and in early wagering, he was bet down from 5ā2 to 2ā1 as of Thursday afternoon. As is often the case in the gossipy racetrack world, there has been a lot of whispering about whether Fierceness has lost his fastball this week. Iām not buying it.
Heās not physically imposing and isnāt a dazzling morning galloper, but when asked to race, his best is far better than any of his competition. He could, to use a racing term, ābounceā (regress) off his massive Florida Derby effort and still win. Fierceness has the raw speed to get away from early traffic problems as long as he breaks well.
I look for him to be on or near an honest pace before taking command of the race with about five furlongs to go. If the first half mile is run faster than 46 seconds, that will tax the front-runners; if itās 46 or slower, theyāre in good shape. John Velazquez, Fiercenessās excellent jockey, could dictate the early fractions if he gets to the lead without serious pressure.
The win bet: $40 on Fierceness.
Most of the other $60 will go into exotics in search of a bigger payday. Iāll play a $5, three-horse exacta box with Fierceness, Sierra Leone (5ā1 as of Thursday afternoon) and Just A Touch (a juicy 14ā1). That betāwhich calls for two of those three to finish 1-2, in any orderāwill cost $30.
Iāll also take a swing at a $1 trifecta part wheel, trying to hit the top three finishers. Iāll play Fierceness and Sierra Leone in first with those two, Just A Touch, Catching Freedom (8ā1) and Forever Young (8ā1) in both the second and third spots. Thatās a $24 bet.
Iāll play a $2 Oaks-Derby double, which is picking the winners of both the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and the Derby on Saturday. The wager there will be on Thorpedo Anna in the Oaks and Fierceness in the Derby.
The last four dollars are simply to avoid actively hating myself. Iāll place a $2 win bet on the horse thatās looked good every morning on the track but I donāt have covered otherwise (Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold at 34ā1) and $2 to win on the longest shot on the board (currently Society Man at 59ā1). The latter hedge bet is in deference to the Rich Strike fluke-burger win in 2022.
Good luck to everyone. We can all complain about how bad our wagers turn out Saturday night.
The chemo port is hidden beneath three layers of shirts and peals of laughter. Larry Demeritte is having far too much fun these days to waste precious time worrying about the cancer assailing his body. There is a dream horse to train, a dream race to run, a late-career climax to soak up.
Demeritte is flashing toothy smiles and telling jokes outside Barn 42 at Churchill Downs, the happiest man in racingās happiest place this time of year. Itās the last Saturday in April, which means weāre approaching the first Saturday in May, the high holy day in American thoroughbred racing. The 70-something trainer (he wonāt give up an exact age) has the first Kentucky Derby runner in his life in West Saratoga, a typical Demeritte bargain find that heās turned into a graded stakes winner.
Demeritte eyed the gray son of Exaggerator in the auction ring in September 2022, one of the last horses up for bid at that Keeneland Yearling Sale in Lexington. He counseled owner Harry Veruchi to spend $11,000 for the colt, and Veruchi named him after the street he grew up on in Littleton, Colo. West Saratoga has since returned $460,140 in purse money on that modest initial investment.
Now, West Saratoga will try to win the $5 million Derby on Saturday. He is a long shot at 50ā1, winless in his last four starts since capturing the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill last September. But Demeritte is an even longer shotāto be here with a horse, yes, but really to be here at all.
Demeritte says he was first diagnosed with cancer in 1996 and given five years to live. He says he was diagnosed again in 2018, and endured a bone marrow transplant at Vanderbilt University. He was given six months that time. Heās still here, radiating optimism and joy.
āI always say, doctors canāt count,ā Demeritte says with a high-pitched giggle. āThe doctor said I have cancer. I donāt say that, O.K.? Iām gonna do the treatments just in case theyāre right, but I donāt look at it like I have anything wrong with me. I donāt ever sit and worry about what I have or what Iām dealing with.ā
This is what Demeritte says heās dealing with: multiple myeloma and amyloidosis. He gets a five-hour chemo treatment via a drip once a month in Frankfort, Ky. The most recent round of chemo was last week, knocking him back for a couple of days and limiting his duties with the string of horses he stables in Lexington. His legs swell up and fatigue sets in after working all day.
āThere were some days when I didnāt think Iād survive,ā he says. āIād go to bed and Iām so sick and my prayer is, If I donāt wake up on this side, God will wake me on his side.ā
The eternal wake-up call hasnāt come. And so Demeritte keeps showing up at the barn in the morningārepresenting his native Bahamas and diversity in horse racing, where he will be just the second Black trainer to saddle a Derby horse since 1951.
He drove his Toyota Tundra west on Interstate 64 to Louisville with a horse trailer attached and West Saratoga onboard late last week. He oversaw the coltās final major pre-Derby workout Saturday. After a lifetime at the racetrackāincluding the last 48 years in the United Statesāthe best medicine for Larry Demeritte now is seeing West Saratoga.
āSome days, my boys have to give me a ride home, Iām so sick,ā Demeritte says. āBut whatās the use staying at home feeling sorry for yourself, when the horses are going to bring a smile to your face watching them train? No, youāve got to get up and go. Then go back home afterward and lie down after they make you feel good.ā
Says Veruchi: ā[The horse] is keeping him alive.ā
Larry Demeritte doesnāt hunt pigeons at Churchill Downs anymore. But he did, half a lifetime ago as a fresh American immigrant, in the 1970s.
Demeritte says he was living in one of the barns on the Churchill backside where he was working as a groom. He put his childhood Boy Scout training to work, climbing on the barn roof with a slingshot to take aim at the birds that have roosted there since time immemorial. That was dinner.
āWhen youāre a Boy Scout, you learn survival,ā he says. āSo all weād do is take a little rice, cooked rice, put it in a brown paper bag and go and get the sling and get the little birds. We put them on a hanger and barbecued them. You had to learn how to catch fire with one match. I know what it is to survive.ā
Eating pigeons was part of life growing up in the Bahamas. So was going to the racetrack, where Larryās father was a trainer. He and his brothers would get out of school at noon on Fridays and catch a ride on a neighborās truck to the trackāagainst the wishes of his mom and grandmother.
āWeād get a beating every Friday night, but that didnāt matter,ā Demeritte says. āWeād go every Friday to the races.ā
As a teenager, Larry began training his own horses. He says he had 25 horses by age 19 and was winning training titles. But heād been smitten by Secretariat winning the Triple Crown in 1973 and knew he wanted to experience American racing. He came to the U.S. in ā76 as a groom, starting at the bottom.
In 1977, he was the groom for Silver Series, a talented horse that won five races that year, including the Hawthorne Derby, Ohio Derby and American Derby Handicap. āI slept with this horse,ā a young Demeritte told the Chicago Tribune during that summer run of wins.
By 1981, Demeritte struck out on his own as a trainer. Early returns were meager. He was 0-for-48, according to Equibase statistics, before breaking through with Tom Tale in December ā84. Demeritteās business remained modest; he was a quintessential ham-and-egg trainer on the Kentucky circuit, working the claiming game and looking for bargains at sales.
The Derby was a dream, but a fuzzy one. Demeritte didnāt often trade in horses of that caliber. He ran some horses on the Derby Day undercard, and the 1998 Louisville Courier-Journal Derby special section included a photo of Demeritte and his wife, Beryl. The caption on the picture noted that Demeritteās tie was ābearing the coat of arms of his native Bahamas.ā (Another photo subject in the special section that year was āNew York developer Donald Trumpā who ābrought Melania Knauss, of Vienna, Austria, to the Derby.ā Trump told the paper he was betting on Stephen Got Even in that Derby; the horse finished 14th.)
The following year, Demeritte guided the $3,000 purchase of a yearling named Daring Pegasus. Veruchi was a co-owner, his first partnership with Demeritte. A strong 2-year-old campaign had the horse on the 2001 Derby Trail, but the step up in competition in Derby prep races was more than Daring Pegasus could handle.
Demeritte moved into the realm of six-figure annual purse earnings in the 2000s but never landed a breakthrough horse. In ā10, he finally recorded his first graded stakes win with Memorial Maniac (that remains Demeritteās highest-earning year, at $459,616). He didnāt win another until West Saratoga captured the Iroquois last fall.
āI told the boys in the barn, this is our big horse,ā Demeritte says. āThis is the first horse Iāve trained in a long time that has gears. You have to manage him right. I feel like the route we took was the best route for him, to get him here without a lot of stress. When the right day comes with the big boys, heāll be ready for them.ā
The big boys are probably not game-planning to beat West Saratoga. But all Derby dreams are alive at this juncture, and Demeritte is as optimistic about this race as he is about his cancer fight.
āOh, he knows heās going to win,ā says Veruchi, who walked to the old Centennial Race Track as a kid in Colorado, then went on to own a car dealership. āHe says weāre going to win. I always ask him, āWhat if we donāt do good in this race, do you have a Plan B?ā No. No Plan B.
āFifty-to-one, horse donāt know. He has no idea what the odds are. All he knows is heās going to get out there and run his ass off.ā
Time-honored tradition calls for the winning trainer of the Derby to meet the media on the Sunday morning after the race. Itās an easy duty, basking in the glow of a lifetime achievement. But if West Saratoga wins the Run for the Roses, donāt look for Larry Demeritte at Barn 42 on Sunday.
He says he will be at Fork of Elkhorn Baptist Church in Midway, Ky., as usual, taking part in worship services and a menās discussion group. Veruchi went to church with Demeritte this past Sunday.
āMy encouragement is always that the men reach out to the young men in the church,ā Demeritte says of his discussion group theme. āI have a good Sunday school with a lot of men successful in life. We have to reach the younger people, so they can have hope. Kids give up too easily. Thatās something I donāt want to see. I want a kid to follow their dream and find their goal in life and work at it, and be successful at it.ā
The Derby has had an endless wellspring of people and animals that are easy to root for. Larry Demeritte and West Saratoga now join that age-old list. But Demeritte sees his role more as a representative for several groups than the object of affection.
Heās here for Black people in racing, who once dominated the Derby in its early days but have been marginalized for more than a century. Itās why he employs several young Black assistants, such as Donte Lowery, the exercise rider and groom for West Saratoga, who says his boss āinspires me in a big way.ā
āThatās why I do what I do,ā Demeritte says. āAnd thatās why I help keep young people around me. Thatās my encouragement. I donāt want it to take this long for Donte or my other boys at the barn to have to wait this long to go to the Derby as a trainer. Thatās my goal.
āWe are linked. When something goes bad, they group us as a Black community. So if something good is happening for the Black community, why wouldnāt I bring them along? Let them experience the goodness of this country. There is so much good here in America. I get so upset when I see the kids not appreciating their country.ā
Heās here for cancer patients. The Kentucky Oaks on Friday is a long-standing breast cancer awareness day, rife with pink regalia and a survivorsā walk on the track. Derby Day now has its own rallying cry for those fighting the disease.
āI feel, I guess, like Iām on a mission,ā Demeritte says. āThe Kentucky Derbyās great, but I feel itās deeper than that. If I can be [an] encouragement to people with cancer, if I can help someone, encourage them to make their journey easier, thatās what I want to do.ā
And heās here for his Bahamian brethren. About 20 family members will be at Churchill on Saturday, many of them coming from the Bahamas, here to see a moment decades in the making and wholly improbable.
āThis means a whole lot, more than really I can describe,ā Demeritte says. āThis goes very deep. I feel like Iām representing a lot of people, O.K.?ā
Larry Demeritte is representing a lot of people with a smile on his ageless face and a chemo port in his chest. He is a long shot in the Kentucky Derby and in life, a guy who shouldnāt be at Churchill Downs Saturdayāliterally and figuratively. But a bargain colt has brought him this far, and now there is no keeping him away, no keeping him down.