The San Francisco 49ers (1-2) host the division-leading Los Angeles Rams (2-1) in an NFC West showdown on Monday Night Football. Both teams enter this matchup 1-2 against the spread for the season, with the Rams winning two games straight up.
San Francisco has won four of the last five matchups between these two teams, so it seems safe to say Kyle Shanahan has Sean McVay’s number. The Rams enter this one as the slight road dogs, despite their better record.
Here is where the line stands at SI Sportsbook:
- Moneyline: Rams (+105) | 49ers (-125)
- Spread: Rams +1.5 (+110) | 49ers -1.5 (-110)
- Total: 42.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Both teams have underperformed offensive expectations so far this season, with the Niners averaging 324 offensive yards per game, and the Rams averaging only 306. That’s bottom nine in the league. San Francisco has scored 15.7 points per game while the Rams have scored 20.3.
Defensively, the Niners have been superior, allowing only 12.3 points per game as compared to the Rams 23.3. But can the Niners put up 23 points with Jimmy Garoppolo under center? The Rams’ run defense has allowed an average of only 67 yards per game this year. Jeff Wilson Jr. may fall into the end zone, but the onus will be on Jimmy G to get the ball out to his receivers. Look for Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk to be heavily involved vs. a Rams secondary that has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game (223) in 2022.
The reigning Super Bowl champs have looked a bit sluggish to start the season with Matthew Stafford throwing more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4) this year. Again, expect the receivers to be heavily involved in the Rams game plan, as the 49ers have only allowed 63 rushing yards per game. Neither Cam Akers nor Darrell Henderson are likely to have success on the ground. Instead, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee and Allen Robinson should see plenty of targets. In two regular-season games vs. San Francisco in 2021, Kupp averaged 120 yards per game.
Stafford failed to throw a TD in Week 3, but I don’t think that happens again this week. Jimmy G should have some success through the air vs. the Rams secondary. I see both QBs having a mediocre day and the game total staying under 42.5. In a matchup this tight, even though history is with the Niners, I’ll take the reigning NFC and Super Bowl champs plus the points.
The Pick:
Rams +1.5
Under 42.5
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