The Monday night meeting between the Raiders and Chiefs features the highest point total of the week.
Las Vegas and Kansas City have been known to put up a plethora of points in recent meetings and, despite the gap in these teams’ records, both offenses rank top 10 in scoring. This is a prime-time matchup with stars on both offenses, which makes it a perfect game to target some player prop bets.
Derek Carr Over 38.5 Passing Attempts (-120)
The Raiders quarterback averages exactly 38.5 pass attempts through four games, because – as one might expect across a 1-3 start – the Raiders have been in a lot of negative game scripts. That won’t change against the Chiefs, who are favored by more than a touchdown. Las Vegas passes the ball on more than 64% of its plays, the ninth-highest rate in the league, and Carr has already gone over this total twice this season. Carr aired the ball out 35 and 45 times in two games against Kansas City last year—both losses. An early Raiders deficit could force the team into an even more pass-dominant offense despite how well Josh Jacobs has run the ball. Carr needs to get the ball to his playmakers early and often to hang with the Chiefs on the road; it’s easy to see him getting up to 40 attempts in this contest.
Travis Kelce Over 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-118)
Kelce has scored in three of Kansas City’s four games and is tied for the third-most red zone targets (nine) in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes connected with him six times inside the 20 and half of those have gone for touchdowns. Kelce didn’t score in either game against the Raiders in 2021, but he scored in both games when these teams met in 2020. With a point total this high and Kelce again firmly ingrained as Mahomes’s top target, it’s almost always a good bet for him to find the end zone. The odds on Kelce’s receiving touchdown prop are also slightly better than his anytime touchdown odds (-138), and I’ll gladly take that boost.
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+125)
Plus odds on Mahomes to throw three touchdowns? I’ll take it! He tossed three last week against the Buccaneers, a decidedly better defense than the Raiders, and threw five earlier in the season against the Cardinals. In his last game against Las Vegas, Mahomes threw two in a 48-9 blowout but before that he threw five on 50 pass attempts in the earlier 2021 meeting. There’s still some resentment from when the Raiders came to Kansas City and beat the Chiefs in 2020 and took a victory lap around the stadium. Mahomes remembers, and I bet he’s in for a big outing.
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