First place meets last place in a Monday night AFC West showdown in Kansas City. The Chiefs (3-1) host the Raiders (1-3) in a prime-time spot, and the home team is favored by more than a touchdown.
Patrick Mahomes is 7-1 against the Raiders in his career and Kansas City won both meetings last season by a combined score of 89-23. The Raiders infamously beat the Chiefs in 2020 and enjoyed their victory by taking a lap around Arrowhead Stadium in the team bus. Since then, Mahomes and Co. have won the past three meetings and are in position to make it four in a row.
Las Vegas scored its first victory of the year against the Broncos last week following a surprising 0-3 start. Kansas City is also coming off a win after it hung 41 points on the Buccaneers in Week 4 and avenged its Super Bowl LV defeat.
The Raiders are 7.5-point underdogs on the road and the 51.5 point total is a nod to both top-10 scoring offenses and an acknowledgement that neither defense has held up particularly well to this point.
- Moneyline: Raiders (+260) | Chiefs (-333)
- Spread: Raiders +7.5 (-118) | Chiefs -7.5 (+100)
- Total: 51.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
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Las Vegas has a multitude of weapons on offense, but Davante Adams is far and away Derek Carr’s top option. Adams’s target share, which is above 30%, is near the top of the league. After two off weeks, Carr and Adams linked up nine times for over 100 yards against Denver and the duo already has three touchdowns. Raiders tight end Darren Waller has been lightly used this season compared to years past as Mack Hollins has emerged as Carr’s second option. Carr also gets Hunter Renfrow (concussion) back this week, so he’ll have his full slate of receivers at his disposal.
Though Las Vegas passes the ball at one of the highest rates in the NFL, Josh Jacobs leads a solid rushing attack. The fourth-year pro had 144 yards and two scores on 28 carries in a win last week and he’s been more involved as a receiver as of late, too.
Kansas City allows a league-low 65.8 rushing yards per game, an average that cratered after the Buccaneers totaled six yards on the ground last week. Jacobs played poorly in both games against the Chiefs last season and totaled just 40 combined yards on 16 carries.
As for the Kansas City offense, everything has been working. Mahomes is tied for the NFL lead in passing touchdowns entering Week 5 (11), his connection with Travis Kelce is as strong as ever and offseason additions JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have helped compensate for Tyreek Hill’s departure. Even the ground game has been a reliable option for the Chiefs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire and rookie Isiah Pachecho, the team’s two leading rushers, both average better than five yards per carry.
In K.C.’s loss to the Colts, a poor rushing performance and two turnovers were the difference. The Chiefs were bottled up on the ground to the tune of 58 yards, Mahomes threw an interception and Skyy Moore fumbled a kick return.
The Raiders have not been a particularly opportunistic defense with just three total turnovers, but defensive end Maxx Crosby has been able to get to opposing quarterbacks with four sacks already in addition to eight tackles for loss. Kansas City’s revamped line has allowed five sacks, one of the lowest marks in the league, and Mahomes has been known to beat the blitz time after time when teams bring pressure.
Last week was a statement win for the Chiefs. I’m expecting another one, perhaps even more emphatic this time around. This is a large spread for a division game but ultimately one I’m comfortable picking Kansas City to cover given how it’s performing and how this series has unfolded over the last few years. The Raiders can and still should get theirs, so I like the over in this one as well.
The Pick:
Chiefs -7.5
Over 51.5
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