The Chicago Bears (2-4) travel to face the New England Patriots (3-3) at Gillette Stadium for Monday Night Football. The Patriots are heavy favorites at home despite the lack of clarity at the QB position. Whether it is Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones getting the start, SISB believes the game total will remain fairly low, setting it at only 39.5 for the third-lowest implied points total in Week 7.
Chicago is 0-3 on the road this season, and the Patriots are coming off back-to-back wins. New England has covered 50% of its contests this year, winning both games in which it was favored. Chicago has covered 33.3% of its games this year, despite losing four of the five games in which it was an underdog.
New England should be the clear choice on the ML, but there is little value in that wager.
As for the game total, Chicago’s game totals have gone under 66.7% of the times while the Patriots have gone under in 50% of games this season.
Here is where the odds currently stand at SISB:
- Moneyline: Bears (+275) | Patriots (-350)
- Spread: Bears +10.5 (-110) | Patriots -10.5 (-110)
- Total: 40.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Bill Belichick and the Patriots find ways to win, and they shouldn’t have any issue vs. this Bears offense that is scoring an average of 15.5 points per game (second-worst in the NFL). Justin Fields is exactly the kind of young QB the Patriots shut down, and with limited pass attempts (fewest in the NFL), the Patriots can also work on limiting David Montogmery and the run game. The Patriots have allowed only 18.8 points per game this year while only allowing two rushing TDs (second-fewest) and 119 ground yards per game. That’s bad news not only for Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, but also for their mobile QB and this run-first offense that is averaging 170.7 rushing yards per game.
On top of that, the Bears are converting only 24.5% of first-down opportunities and only 33.3% of fourth downs. They’re just … not good.
The Patriots are averaging 23.3 points per game offensively while the Bears are allowing only 19.7.
Any way I add this up, it’s a low-scoring affair. Take the under. As for picking against the spread… I liked the Patriots to cover as of early Sunday morning, when the line was 8.5 points. But then it bumped up to 10.5 and that’s too much for what should be a low-scoring game. I’m not touching that.
The Pick:
Under 40.5
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