A win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 9 (15-9) ended a five-game losing streak for the Lions and helped them save their season over the nine games (7-2). Detroit scored over 30 points in six of their eight wins this season, but they have also given up 30 points or more in four games (all losses). Over the past eight matchups, the Lions scored 29 touchdowns and 14 field goals on 81 possessions. Jared Goff has been sensational over this span, minimizing turnovers (no interceptions and one lost fumble with 15 passing touchdowns).
For Detroit to reach the playoffs, they must beat the Packers, but the Lions need a loss or tie by the Seattle Seahawks to reach the postseason for the first time since 2016. Green Bay only needs a win to advance to the playoffs.
Midseason, the Packers went 1-7 over a seven-game stretch, highlighted by losses to the Giants, Lions, Titans, and Eagles. However, a four-game winning streak in December puts Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers in position for a postseason berth for the 12th time in 14 seasons.
The Lions run the ball well in the red zone, leading to success in rushing touchdowns (23 – eight on the road). In addition, Detroit used their tight ends more effectively at the goal line over the previous three weeks (six scores plus 16 catches for 166 yards). The Lions also can make big plays with their wide receivers (224/2,828/14), showcased by gaining over 8.0 yards per pass attempt in eight contests. In their first matchup, Green Bay held Detroit to short yards passing (14-for-26 with 137 yards and two touchdowns).
On the downside, the Lions have too many down days defending the run (449/2,388/21 – 5.3 yards per carry). In addition, quarterbacks have beaten them for 8.0 yards per pass attempt. Eight offenses gained over 200 yards from their wide receivers (217/3,079/14 – 14.2 yards per catch).
After their loss to Detroit, Green Bay had been a much better offense (33 points per game). Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had more than one passing touchdown in the Packers’ last four wins, partly due to their improved success running the ball (125/555/7).
The uptick in play by Green Bay’s defense led to 68 points over the last four weeks, thanks to three fumble recoveries and nine interceptions. The Packers only have 34 sacks on the season (none vs. the Lions). Their Achilles heel in this matchup will be stopping the run (454/2,268/16 – 5.0 yards per rush).
Lions vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Game Info
Moneyline: Lions (+188) | Packers (-225)
Spread: DET +4.5 (-110) | GB -4.5 (-110)
Total: 49.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Game Info: Sunday, January 8th, 2023 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Lions Straight-Up Record: 8-8
Lions Against the Spread Record: 11-5
Packers Straight-Up Record: 8-8
Packers Against the Spread Record: 8-8
Bet on Lions-Packers on SI Sportsbook
Odds and Betting Insights
The only difference between the Packers and Lions schedules this season is three games (GB – Buccaneers, Titans, and Rams ~ DET – Seahawks, Jaguars, and Panthers). Green Bay has the edge in their secondary, but Detroit has enough weapons at receiver to move the ball via the ball. Adding DJ Chark and Jameson Williams forces the Packers to protect against the deep ball. In the end, I’ve been a fan of the Lions all year, and I like the direction of their team. Experience favors Aaron Rodgers, but Detroit has a more explosive offense. I’ll be investing in the underdog in this matchup.
- Detroit covered the spread as an underdog in their last five games (7-3 on the year). The Lions have been the winning play on the betting line in eight of their last nine matchups.
- The game total for Detroit went over in five of their previous eight contests (9-7 on the season).
- The Packers have a four-game winning streak against the spread, but they are 2-4 when favored (3-4 at home).
- The game total has gone over five of the past seven games for Green Bay.
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