Bettors will kick off divisional round action Saturday afternoon with an AFC matchup featuring Patrick Mahomes and the top-seeded Chiefs welcoming Trevor Lawrence and the upstart Jaguars.
Due to the prowess of Mahomes’s success at home (39-10 record), oddsmakers have posted an inflated point spread of more than a touchdown on a team that has only covered the spread (1-6-1) once at Arrowhead this season. Bettors should pivot from laying the wood on a Chiefs squad that has only covered the spread at a 29% clip (5-11-1) this season and instead target player proposition wagers.
Mahomes, who is 8-3 in 11 career playoff games, has stepped his game up in the postseason by throwing 28 touchdowns, while adding five rushing scores. Lawrence, who ranked eighth in the NFL in touchdowns (25) in his sophomore season, showed tremendous perseverance in his first career playoff game. The 2021 No. 1 pick threw four first half interceptions but rebounded in the second half to lead the Jaguars to the third-largest comeback in NFL playoff history.
Both teams’ ability to post significant offensive production is why this game has the highest point total (52.5) of the four divisional round games.
In Week 18 and the wild-card round, respected money information from Las Vegas helped the SI Betting community go 7-2 on player proposition wagers. For this matchup, they have targeted three skill position players that offer solid value.
Let’s take a deeper look at where they made investments!
Jaguars-Chiefs AFC Divisional Round Player Props
Travis Kelce OVER 79.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has been a scoring machine in his career in the postseason, scoring 12 touchdowns in 15 playoff games. Against the Jaguars earlier this season, Kelce hauled in six of seven targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. A deeper dive reveals that Jacksonville has struggled to defend tight ends, surrendering an average of 68.6 yards per game and nine touchdowns to the position. Bettors should expect Kelce to be a major red zone threat Sunday.
However, the -150 odds on his ‘Anytime Touchdown’ market are simply too prohibitive. Armed with the knowledge that Jacksonville is the worst team in the NFL at defending tight ends, we will invest in Kelce exceeding his yardage projection of 79.5 receiving yards. The Jaguars, who have surrendered a whopping 5.3 receptions per game to tight ends, will not be able to keep the veteran who led the Chiefs in the regular season in targets (152), receptions (110), receiving yards (1,338) and touchdowns (12) from posting supreme production.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-118)
Mahomes pilots the NFL’s leading passing attack averaging 297.8 yards per game. The star signal-caller finds a favorable matchup against a 28th-ranked Jaguars’ pass defense allowing 238.5 passing yards per game. Mahomes was outstanding in the first meeting, throwing for 331 yards and four touchdowns. In his postseason career, Mahomes has averaged 307.4 passing yards in 11 games. The NFL’s best quarterback has thrown three-plus touchdowns in his last three playoff games, while surpassing this projection of 2.5 touchdown tosses in seven of 11 games in his postseason career. Hitting a 63.6% clip, this market demands an investment.
Christian Kirk ‘Anytime Touchdown’ (+170)
Christian Kirk, who led the Jaguars in receptions (84), receiving yards (1,108) and touchdowns (eight), was an integral part of the win over the Chargers last week by hauling in eight of 14 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. The fifth-year wideout finds a favorable matchup against a Chiefs’ defense that has allowed 20 touchdowns to wide receivers. In the Week 10 meeting, Kirk torched the Kansas City secondary with nine receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns. The value here is simply too good to pass up on Lawrence’s top target in the passing game.
PROP BETS
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs: Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs: Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-118)
Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars: ‘Anytime Touchdown’ (+170)
2022 SI Betting NFL: 41-33-1 ATS + Props +13.40 U
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 25-20 ATS + Props +5.75 U
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS + Prop Wagers +4.00 U
2021 SI Betting NFL: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 SI Betting NFL: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
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