The divisional round of the NFL playoffs kicks off with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs hosting Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.
Jacksonville extended its winning streak to six games following an amazing come-from-behind victory over the Chargers in the wild-card round. After a terrible first half performance, Lawrence led the Jaguars back from a 27-point deficit en route to a 31-30 win. The comeback marked the third largest in playoff history and resulted in a showdown with the high-powered Chiefs on Saturday.
The Jaguars have posted an extremely profitable 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS) mark during this winning streak.
Jacksonville is 3-0 straight-up (SU) and ATS over its last three road games and now heads to Arrowhead Stadium for the second time this season. The clubs met in Week 10 with Kansas City emerging with a 27-17 win as 10-point home favorites.
Kansas City earned the 1-seed in the AFC and is well rested following it first-round bye. Andy Reid’s squad, despite winning seven of their eight home games, has crushed bettors’ bankrolls by failing to cover the spread six times (1-6-1 ATS).
The Chiefs are 6-0 straight-up (SU) and 4-1-1 ATS over the last six meetings with Jacksonville dating back to 2010.
Heading into the divisional round, respected money information from Vegas is on a roll. In Week 18 and the wild-card round, the information helped the SI Betting community go 7-2 on player proposition wagers and 6-0 on teaser investments!
Overall, the information finished up 7.4 units in the first round of the playoffs, leaving us with a profit of +13.4 units on the season in NFL wagering here at Sports Illustrated. Let’s keep the train rolling along and stay hot!
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs AFC Divisional Round Odds
- Spread: Jacksonville +8.5 (-110) | Kansas City -8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: JAX (+310) | KC (-400)
- Total: 52.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
- Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: JAX 47% | KC 53%
- Game Info: Jan. 21, 2023 | 4:30 p.m. ET | NBC
Jaguars Straight-Up Record: 10-8
Jaguars Against The Spread Record: 9-8-1
Chiefs Straight-Up Record: 14-3
Chiefs Against The Spread Record: 5-11-1
Bet on Jaguars-Chiefs at SI Sportsbook
Odds and Betting Insights
Jacksonville Offense vs. Kansas City Defense
The Jaguars finished the regular season with the league’s 10th-best passing attack (232.9 yards per game) and find a favorable matchup versus a Chiefs defense that has surrendered 37 total touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. However, Kansas City has fixed some of its issues on the back end and only allowed multiple touchdown passes in three of the last seven games.
Lawrence, who only threw one touchdown over the final three-regular season games, rebounded from a brutal first half in the wild-card win over Chargers. He tossed one touchdown and four interceptions in the first thirty minutes but came storming out the locker room, tossing three touchdowns and no interceptions en route to the monumental comeback.
In the Week 10 matchup, Lawrence was solid both in the air and on the ground. The former No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft completed 72.5% of his passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 26 rushing yards.
Lawrence and Travis Etienne, who have combined for 10 rushing touchdowns, will face a stout Chiefs’ defense that only yielded 10 rushing touchdowns. Etienne, who rushed for 112 yards in his first career playoff game last week against Los Angeles, produced 73 total yards in the first game against the Chiefs. The explosive back has averaged 94.3 total yards from scrimmage over the six-game winning streak.
However, we need to highlight that the former Clemson standout, who finds -105 odds on his ‘Anytime Touchdown’ market, has only scored once in nine games away from TIAA Bank Field. Despite receiving the bulk of the work, Etienne has failed to find the end zone in eight of his last nine games overall.
Christian Kirk led the club in receptions (84), receiving yards (1,108) and touchdowns (8) and was an integral part of the win over the Chargers last week, hauling in eight of 14 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. The fifth-year wideout finds a favorable matchup against a Chiefs’ defense that has allowed 20 touchdowns to wide receivers. In Week 10, Kirk torched the Kansas City secondary with nine receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns.
Kansas City Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense
Mahomes pilots the NFL’s leading passing attack that averaged 297.8 yards per game. The star signal-caller owns a 39-10 record (79.6%) at Arrowhead spanning the regular season and playoffs and finds a favorable matchup against a 28th-ranked Jaguars’ pass defense allowing 238.5 passing yards per game.
The Chiefs’ quarterback was outstanding in the first meeting, throwing for 331 yards and four touchdowns while adding 39 yards on the ground. The front-runner for the 2022 NFL MVP has been sensational in the postseason in his career, averaging 307.4 passing yards and 29.3 rushing yards while throwing 28 touchdowns and adding five rushing scores in 11 games.
Kansas City’s running game ranks 20th in rushing (115.9 yards per game) but has received a major boost from the production of Jerick McKinnon in the passing game over the second half of the season. The veteran has scored eight receiving touchdowns over his last six games, becoming one of Mahomes’s top weapons in the aerial attack. In the first meeting, McKinnon hauled in six of eight targets for 56 yards. Expect the Chiefs to utilize his receiving skills against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 5.94 receptions per game to opposing running backs.
After trading wideout Tyreek Hill in the offseason, Mahomes has relied heavily on Travis Kelce. The star tight end led the Chiefs in targets (152), receptions (110), receiving yards (1,338) and touchdowns (12). In Week 10, Kelce hauled in six of seven targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. Kelce has become a postseason star, averaging 86.1 receiving yards while catching 12 touchdowns in 15 playoff games.
Jacksonville vs. Kansas City Best Bet
Respected money believes that Mahomes, who is 8-3 in playoff games at Arrowhead Stadium, will move on to the AFC championship game for the fifth time in his career. Jacksonville has won six consecutive games and has covered the spread in three consecutive road games. Due to the prowess of Mahomes at home, bettors find this line inflated by oddsmakers. We are 6-0 over the last two weeks playing games as an exotic betting investment. If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it.
Let’s play this wager in the form of a two-team teaser backing the Chiefs with a ‘live’ underdog playing later on Saturday evening – the Giants.
EXOTIC BET: Two-team, Seven-Point Teaser KC -1.5/NYG +14.5 (-120)
Trends
- Kansas City is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS over the last six meetings vs. Jacksonville
- The Jaguars are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS over their last six games
- Kansas City is 1-6-1 ATS at home this season
- Kansas City is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home playoff games
- The under is 5-1 in Kansas City’s last six home games
2022 SI Betting NFL Football: 41-33-1+ Props +13.40 U
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 25-20 ATS + Props +5.75 U
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS + Prop Wagers +4.00 U
2021 SI Betting NFL: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 SI Betting NFL: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
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