How Tom Brady Has Performed as an Underdog

There’s a first time for everything—even for a 45-year-old quarterback.

When Tom Brady takes the field Monday night for the Cowboys–Buccaneers wild-card matchup, it will be the first time in his career he’s a home underdog in the playoffs.

Dallas, the No. 5 seed, is a 2.5-point favorite at Raymond James Stadium against Tampa Bay, the No. 4 seed. The Cowboys (12–5) have a better record than the Buccaneers (8–9), winners of the NFC South, but Brady led his team to a 19-3 win at AT&T Stadium Week 1 and he has never lost to Dallas (7–0).

Brady has delivered consistently across his 19 previous playoff appearances for bettors en route to his seven Super Bowl wins, but the odds are stacked against him this time.

The Buccaneers’ odds of winning the NFC at SI Sportsbook are +1000, tied for fourth-best, and they have +2500 odds, eighth-best, to capture their second Super Bowl in three seasons. Tampa Bay began the season with +700 odds to win it all, second only to the Chiefs.

Tampa Bay enters the postseason with the worst record against the spread (ATS) in the NFL (4–12–1) and was winless (0–3) ATS as an underdog.

Since joining the Buccaneers, Brady is 3–1 ATS as a home underdog with three wins straight-up. Each of those came in 2020, against the Chiefs (+3.5) and Packers (+2.5) in the regular season and again versus K.C. in the Super Bowl (+3). The Buccaneers played Super Bowl LV at home at Raymond James Stadium.

Tampa Bay was favored in every game it played in 2021, and Brady’s only loss ATS as a home underdog in the last three years came this season against the Bengals (+3.5).

Brady is 5–4 ATS overall as an underdog with the Bucs, whose nine games in that position since 2020 are the second-fewest in the NFL only to the Chiefs, who are 2–2 ATS when getting points over that same span. Three of those losses for Brady happened this season and they each occurred in the final five weeks: +3.5 at the 49ers, +3.5 vs. the Bengals and +6 at the Falcons in the season finale. Brady did not finish the Week 18 loss against Atlanta.

Brady is 37–26 straight-up in his career as an underdog and 41–20–2 ATS. Most of that damage was done with the Patriots, of course, where he spent the first 20 seasons of his Hall of Fame career.

Across his 10 Super Bowl appearances, Brady has only been installed as an underdog twice and he won both times as a 14-point underdog against the Rams in 2002 and as a three-point underdog against the Chiefs in 2020.

Brady’s postseason record is 35–12 straight-up and 25–21–1 ATS.

Given the way Tampa Bay has performed this season, it’s easy to see why Brady is in this seemingly rare underdog role against Dallas. But historically speaking, betting against Brady has been a bad beat in the playoffs.