Three weeks after the Giants and Vikings met in Minneapolis, they’re running it back with much higher stakes in the NFL wild-card round.
It’s the Giants, a popular upset pick that outperformed expectations by all accounts under first-year head coach Brian Daboll, against the Vikings, whose impressive record was propped up by a seemingly unsustainable mark in one-score games and marred by a few ugly losses. New York nearly pulled off the upset at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 16, but a 61-yard Greg Joseph field goal as time expired was the difference in a 27-24 loss.
For those reasons, Minnesota is a narrow favorite on its home field.
The Vikings got off to an 8–1 start, punctuated by a 33-30 road win against the Bills in overtime. The very next week, the wheels fell off in a 40-3 loss to Dallas, at home nonetheless. Minnesota was badly embarrassed in its only home loss of the year. There were other letdowns in the second half of the season for coach Kevin O’Connell’s team against the Lions and Packers, but the Vikings still ran away with the NFC North title to earn the right to host a playoff game.
The Giants similarly began the season strong only to falter down the stretch. New York started 7–2 heading and went 3–5–1 from Week 10 on. That early-season success was enough to clinch a wild-card spot after Week 17, though, and the Giants sat their starters in a surprisingly competitive Week 18 loss to the Eagles. Daboll’s squad had a propensity for winning one-score games this season as well, though not to the same degree as the Vikings.
New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings NFL Wild-Card Odds
Moneyline: Giants (+138) | Vikings (-163)
Spread: NYG +3 (-110) | MIN -3 (-110)
Total: 48.5 – Over (+100) | Under (-118)
Game Info: Jan. 15, 2023 | 4:30 p.m. ET | FOX
Giants Straight-Up Record: 9–7–1
Giants Against the Spread Record: 13–4
Vikings Straight-Up Record: 13–4
Vikings Against the Spread Record: 7–9–1
Bet on Giants-Vikings at SI Sportsbook
The strength of Minnesota’s top-10 offense is its passing attack, which averages the sixth-most yards through the air (263.8) in the NFL. A large chunk of that production can be credited to the connection between quarterback Kirk Cousins and third-year receiver Justin Jefferson, who led the league with 1,809 receiving yards.
The team traded for tight end T.J. Hockenson during the season and he’s had great success in the offense, averaging the second-most receiving yards on the team behind Jefferson. Hockenson had his best game as a Viking against the Giants in Week 16 when he finished with 109 yards and two touchdowns on 13 catches. Cousins has historically had a great connection with Adam Thielen in the red zone and K.J. Osborn came on late in the year with a pair of 100-yard outings.
Running back Dalvin Cook racked up over 1,100 yards on the ground but averaged the fewest yards per carry (4.4) of his career. That dip in production coincides with Cousins taking a career-high 46 sacks as Minnesota’s offensive line play has been a concern.
The Vikings enter the playoffs allowing the most points of any postseason team and the third-most in the league (25.1). The secondary is a bigger issue than the run defense, which isn’t great by any means, but only one team allows more passing yards per game than Minnesota (265.6).
New York is a league average offense that does most of its damage on the ground. Running back Saquon Barkley romped for more than 1,300 yards and 10 scores and quarterback Daniel Jones added just over 700 rushing yards. Jones, in the final year of his rookie contract, assembled the best season of his career and had one of his best games against the Vikings, throwing for 334 yards. He made the best of a less-than-ideal situation at wide receiver and cut down on the turnovers, too.
Barkley having his best (and healthiest) campaign since his rookie season is a large reason why the Giants’ offense took a step forward this season. He’s also a reliable receiving option for Jones and tied Richie James for the most receptions on the team (57).
On defense, the Giants were also a middle-of-the-pack unit. They defend the pass much better than the run, where they get gashed for the sixth-most yards per game (144.2). New York got to the opposing quarterback 41 times this season, 13th-most in the NFL, and three of those came in Week 16 against Cousins.
Odds and Betting Insights
The Giants’ 13–4 record against the spread in the regular season was tops in the NFL. They went 10–2 ATS as an underdog with six straight up wins and covered +3.5 on the road against the Vikings in the last meeting. New York is 6–1 straight up and also 6–1 ATS on the road and the under hit in just over half of their games.
Given Minnesota’s straight-up record, its 7–9–1 mark ATS is disappointing. And though it was 8–1 in Minneapolis this season, it only covered in four of those contests. The over hit in 11 Vikings games this season, the most in the league.
BET: Vikings -3 (-110)
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