The Championship Round of the NFL postseason features some great matchups, as the Eagles host the 49ers and the Chiefs face the Bengals at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City will play with a hobbled Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a high-ankle sprain last week and will affect player props in that contest.
The Niners and Eagles both have great defenses, which could mean less success in the stats sheets for players in what figures to be a highly competitive battle.
Here are a few of the props I like this week, and you can find them (and many more) over at SI Sportsbook! Also, be sure to check out the props from our Princess of Props, Jen Piacenti, and fantasy experts, Frankie Taddeo and Shawn Childs!
Miles Sanders under 51.5 rushing yards (-118)
Sanders rushed for 90 yards in last weekend’s win over the Giants, but this week’s matchup against the 49ers is a lot tougher. Their defense allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs during the regular season, and the position averaged a mere 3.3 yards per rush and 59.6 yards per contest against them. Moreover, no runner has had more than 69 rushing yards against them, and only eight have beaten them for 51 or more yards. I like the Niners to keep Sanders under 50 yards.
Brock Purdy under 219.5 passing yards (-120)
Purdy has thrown for more than 219.5 yards just three times in seven career starts, and this week’s brutal matchup in Philadelphia makes him unlikely to hit that total. The Eagles allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks at Lincoln Financial Field during the regular season, and only the Packers and Saints allowed fewer passing yards at home. What’s more, Kirk Cousins is the lone signal-caller to beat the Eagles for more than 220 passing yards in the City of Brotherly Love.
Joe Burrow over 1.5 touchdown passes (-175)
The juice on this prop is high, but there’s a good reason for it … Burrow has owned the Chiefs in the stat sheets. In three career games against them, including the playoffs, Joe Cool has eight touchdown passes and at least two in every contest. Kansas City allowed more touchdown passes to quarterbacks during the regular season than any other team in the league, including 11 QBs who threw for multiple scores against them, so Burrow is in a pretty good spot to hit this player prop.
Isiah Pacheco under 12.5 longest rush (-118)
Pacheco has had long rushes of 31 and 39 yards in each of his last two games, and he’s had a rush of at least 13 yards in eight of his 18 games on the season. So why am I going under? This seems too low, so I’m going with the Costanza strategy (which worked with George Kittle’s receiving yards prop last week). Pacheco hasn’t had a rush of 13 or more yards in three straight games either, so this could be a law of averages winner for all prop bettors.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business to help you win a fantasy championship!
