Bettors will kick off their Sunday afternoon with a wild-card showdown of AFC East rivals when Josh Allen and the Bills welcome a short-handed Miami squad to upstate New York.
Following the news that Tua Tagovailoa did not clear concussion protocol and won’t play Sunday, oddsmakers made a major adjustment on the betting line by moving Buffalo from nine-point home favorites to a massive 13-point demand. Bettors now face an inflated point spread with rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson starting and should pivot to targeting player proposition wagers.
Thompson has failed to immediately grasp hold of Mike McDaniel’s offense which has resulted in a dismal 5.1 yards per completion on 60 pass attempts. The former Kansas State standout has struggled at the NFL level, which makes backing Miami skill position players a risky move.
Allen, who is 8-2 versus Miami, devoured the Dolphins’ defense in the regular season, averaging 352 passing yards and totaling six touchdowns. The elite signal-caller has thrown for more touchdowns (27) against Miami in his career than any other opponent, while adding an impressive 10 rushing scores in those 10 games.
Respected money in Las Vegas swept the board last week in NFL player props and for this matchup, they have targeted three skill position players from the Bills.
Let’s take a deeper look at where they made investments!
Dolphins-Bills AFC Wild-Card Player Props
Dawson Knox ‘Anytime Touchdown’ (+200)
Buffalo tight end Dawson Knox has been a scoring machine over the last month, notching a touchdown in four straight games. Against the Dolphins this season, Knox has hauled in 10 of 12 targets for 123 yards and a touchdown. Miami has struggled to defend tight ends, surrendering an average of 57.1 yards per game and 10 touchdowns to the position. The former Ole Miss Rebel was a major factor in the Bills’ offense last postseason, averaging 14 yards per reception with two touchdown. Bettors should expect Knox to be a major red zone threat Sunday. Grab the healthy plus-odds on his ‘Anytime Touchdown’ market at +200 armed with the knowledge he has scored nine touchdowns over his last 16 home games (including playoffs).
Josh Allen over 258.5 passing yards (-120)
Allen, who finished seventh in passing yards (4,283), should find continued success against a familiar division foe. The dual-threat quarterback has torched the Miami defense this season, throwing for 704 yards and six touchdowns in two regular-season matchups. Miami allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game (234.8). Besides Allen, who soared past this projection twice against Miami, four other quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, 318; Joe Burrow, 287, 257; Jared Goff, 321; Justin Herbert, 367) have surpassed this number. Expect Allen to be in peak form against a secondary he will easily exploit.
Isaiah McKenzie under 23.5 receiving yards (-114)
Over the last month, slot wideout Isaiah McKenzie has seen his role in the passing decline as veterans Cole Beasley and John Brown have been worked into the Buffalo rotation. Since Week 14, McKenzie has only averaged 16 receiving yards per game. The speedy wide receiver has failed to eclipse this number in eight of the last 12 games (66.7%). Drawing three targets or less in eight of his last 11 games, the former Georgia Bulldog is a solid player to likely underperform this projection.
PROP BETS
Dawson Knox, TE, Bills: Anytime Touchdown (+200)
Josh Allen, QB, Bills: Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Isaiah McKenzie, WR, Bills: Under 23.5 receiving yards (-114)
2022 SI Betting Thursday Night Football: 33-31-1 ATS + Props +6.45 U
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 25-20 ATS + Props +5.75 U
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS + Prop Wagers +4.00 U
2021 SI Betting NFL: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 SI Betting NFL: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
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