The Sunday slate of wild-card weekend action kicks off with Josh Allen and the Bills hosting Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins.
Buffalo extended its winning streak to seven games following its victory over the Patriots in in Week 18 and continues to receive positive news on the recovery of Damar Hamlin. His miraculous progress is going to be a motivating force once again when the club takes the field before ‘Bills Mafia’.
During this seven-game winning streak, the Bills have only posted a marginal profit for bettors with a 4-3 against the spread (ATS) mark. Buffalo is 6-1 straight-up (SU) at Highmark Stadium this season but has disappointed bettors who have laid the wood on the home club. The Bills have been no less than seven-point favorites in any home game but have covered against the number three times.
Miami snapped a five-game losing streak in Week 18 to earn the 7-seed in the AFC after beating the Jets, 11-6. It now appears that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has cleared the concussion protocol after missing the last two games. News of his return began to drop the line late Tuesday as the Dolphins moved from 10.5-point underdogs down to only 8.5, while game total soared from 43.5 to 46.5.
The club was initially preparing for third-string rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson to start under center for the second consecutive game. The status of veteran backup Teddy Bridgewater (finger) remains unclear.
The two AFC East rivals split the season series with Miami covering the spread in both contests. The Bills are 8-2 straight-up (SU) but are just 4-5-1 ATS over the last 10 games in the heated rivalry dating back to 2018.
Heading into wild-card weekend, respected money information from Vegas is on a roll. Thee information helped the SI Betting community go 4-0 on player proposition wagers in Week 18, while also going 2-0 on both teaser investments.
Let’s keep the train rolling along and stay hot!
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Wild-Card Odds
Spread: Miami +9.5 (-110) | Buffalo -9.5 (-118)
Moneyline: MIA (+350) | BUF (-450)
Total: 46.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: MIA 37% | BUF 63%
Game Info: Jan. 15, 2023 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Dolphins Straight-Up Record: 9-8
Dolphins Against The Spread Record: 9-8
Bills Straight-Up Record: 13-3
Bills Against The Spread Record: 8-7-1
Bet on Dolphins-Bills at SI Sportsbook
Buffalo Offense vs. Miami Defense
The Bills finished the regular season with the league’s seventh-best passing attack (258.1 yards per game) and should be able to move the ball via the air against a Miami squad with the NFL’s sixth-worst pass defense that allows 234.8 passing yards per game. The Dolphins have surrendered 30 total touchdowns to quarterbacks and will be hard pressed to slow down Allen and his weapons.
Allen, who has thrown nine touchdowns over his last three games, finished second in the NFL in that category by tossing 35 scores on the season. The dual-threat quarterback has torched the Miami defense this season, throwing for 704 yards and six touchdowns in the two regular-season matchups. Allen has also been efficient on the ground, averaging 62 rushing yards in the two meetings.
Devin Singletary leads the Bills with 819 rushing yards but has also been solid in the passing game, tallying the fifth-most receptions (38) on the club. The versatile back struggled on the ground against Miami’s stout run defense (ranked No. 4 by allowing 103 yards per game), gaining 55 yards on 22 carries. However, he has been a factor in the passing game with 12 receptions for 106 yards and a touchdown.
After three subpar performances in which he averaged 41 receiving yards and no touchdowns, receiver Stefon Diggs was back to his stellar production in Week 18 by hauling in seven of 10 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown. The Bills’ offense is at its peak when Digg leads the way but he averaged 67 yards in the two games against Miami this season with no touchdowns. Expect Sean McDermott to make sure the game plan heavily involves his star wideout.
Miami Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
Tagovailoa—assuming he starts— will encounter a Buffalo defense that is surrendering the second-fewest points per game (17.9) this season. The Bills’ secondary has been outstanding of late, allowing an average of just 217 passing yards to quarterbacks over their last five games.
Miami’s running game, which ranks 25th in rushing (99.2 yards per game), may have suffered a critical loss. Running back Raheem Mostert leads the team in rushing yards (891) but broke his thumb against the Jets and his status for the wild-card game is in doubt. If he is unable to go, it would leave the bulk of the work in the hands of Jeff Wilson Jr. against a Bills’ defense that has surrendered seven total touchdowns to running backs over the last nine games.
Mike McDaniel’s aerial attack is anchored by the star tandem of Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Hill finished second in among all wideouts in both receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,710), while Waddle hauled in an impressive 75 receptions for 1,356 yards. The Dolphins boast the fourth-best passing game (265.4 passing yards per game) but just how healthy is Tagovailoa?
Dolphins-Bills Best Bet
Respected money believes that Allen, who is 3-0 in playoff games at Highmark Stadium in his career, will remain undefeated. Despite Tua’s return, Miami will struggle to emerge victorious in this matchup. We will avoid laying the wood choosing to instead play this game as an exotic betting investment.
Let’s play this game in the form of a two-team seven-point teaser backing the Bills with another home playoff team playing later in the day Sunday – the Bengals, who are seven-point home favorites over the Ravens.
EXOTIC BET: Two-team seven-point teaser BUF -2.5/CIN ‘PK (-120)
Trends
– Miami is 2-0 ATS vs Buffalo this season
– The Bills are 6-1 SU but just 3-4 ATS at Highmark Stadium this season
– Miami is 4-5 ATS on the road this season
– The over is 7-2 in Miami’s nine road games this season
– The over is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five home games
– The Bills are 8-2 SU, but just 4-5-1 in their last 10 meetings against Miami
2022 SI Betting NFL Football: 33-31-1 ATS + Props +6.45 U
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 25-20 ATS + Props +5.75 U
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS + Prop Wagers +4.00 U
2021 SI Betting NFL: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 SI Betting NFL: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
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