Two of the NFL’s best offenses kick off Week 4 on Thursday Night Football when Joe Burrow and the Bengals host Tua Tagovailoa and the AFC East-leading Dolphins.
Mike McDaniel has guided Miami to a 3-0 start and his Coach of the Year odds at SI Sportsbook has shrunk to +500 – behind only Nick Sirianni at +300 odds.
Tagovailoa, who is 9-1 in his last 10 starts, is now sixth in MVP futures at SI Sportsbook at +1600 odds. Tagovailoa has acutally moved ahead of the quarterback he’s facing Thursday in Burrow, whose odds have ballooned to +2500.
The Bengals are four-point home favorites Thursday night and have been a solid team to back at the betting window, posting a 9-2 against the spread (ATS) mark over their last 11 games dating back to last season (including playoffs). The rubber will meet the road in prime time against a Dolphins team that is 11-1 SU (straight-up) and 10-2 ATS over their last 12 games, including 3-0 starts this year.
- Spread: Miami +5.5 (-125) | Cincinnati -5.5 (+105)
- Moneyline: MIA (+165) | CIN (-200)
- Total: 47 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
- Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: MIA 56% | CIN 44%
- Game Info: Sept. 29, 2022 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
The line has ticked up since its opening of the Bengals as a three-point home favorite over the Dolphins at SI Sportsbook to Cincinnati now being displayed with a 5.5-point demand. The game total, which opened at 48, has dropped to 47.
Tagovailoa ranks second in the NFL in passing yards (925) and third in passing touchdowns (eight). To say his success can be linked to possessing arguably the best wide receiver tandem in the NFL is an understatement.
Jaylen Waddle ranks second among all wideouts with 342 receiving yards and is closely followed by Tyreek Hill, who ranks third with 317 receiving yards. The dynamic duo, who have combined for five of Tagovailoa’s eight touchdown passes, will face a Bengals defense that has been stingy against opposing wideouts. Cincinnati has only allowed one touchdown to opposing wide receivers while not allowing any player to top 91 receiving yards.
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals also possess an explosive offense. Burrow, who has multiple touchdown passes in two of the three games, will need to be at the top of his game Thursday. Burrow has a trio of downfield weapons in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd and could have success against a porous Miami pass defense that has surrendered the second-most passing yards (893) through three weeks. The Dolphins could also be facing a major loss in their secondary if top cornerback Xavien Howard (groin) is unable to play on the short week.
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The Dolphins held the Patriots and Bills to just three combined touchdowns, but the Miami defense will be playing on short rest after just being on the field for 92 snaps in extreme heat Sunday. Miami is one of three teams (Detroit, Atlanta) that is off to 3-0 ATS start, but Tagovailoa is dealing with back and ankle injuries.
BET: Bengals -4 (-110)
Trends:
- Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four games dating back to last season
- Miami is 3-1-1 ATS over its last five road games
- The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games
- The under is 8-0 in Cincinnati’s last eight games
- The under is 9-4 in Miami’s last 13 games
2022 SI Betting Football: 0-2-1 ATS & Props 5-7 -2.95 Units
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 9-8 ATS & Props 16-12 +5.75 Units
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS & Prop Wagers +4.00 Units
2021 SI Betting NFL Overall: 53-44-1 ATS & Props +14.22 Units
2020 SI Betting NFL: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting’s Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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