In the first matchup between Tampa Bay and Dallas, the Buccaneers had one of their better days running the ball (33/152) of the season, led by Leonard Fournette (21/127). Since the game, Tampa has gained fewer than 4.0 yards per carry in 15 matchups. Only three times all year have they rushed for more than 100 yards. Offenses have had success running the ball vs. the Cowboys (456/2,047/9 – 4.5 yards per rush), highlighted by three teams rushing for more than 175 yards (CHI – 43/240/2, GB – 39/207/1, and JAC – 27/192).
Bet on Cowboys-Buccaneers at SI Sportsbook
Bet: Rachaad White – Under 40.5 yards rushing
At SI Sportsbook, Rachaad White (40.5) and Leonard Fournette (37.5) have low rushing yards over/under totals due to their split role. Over the past six games, White rushed for fewer than 40 yards in five matchups while averaging 9.1 carries. In a big game, Tom Brady trusts Fournette more with the ball and in pass protection, pointing to him being on the field more than White.
Bet: Tony Pollard – Over 47.5 yards
Dallas rushed for only 71 yards on 18 carries in their first matchup. The Buccaneers bottled up Pollard (6 rushes for eight yards) while Ezekiel Elliott ground out 5.2 yards per carry, despite not having a rush over seven yards. Tampa Bay finished the year 15th in rushing yards allowed (458/2,052/12 – 4.5 yards per rush), with six offenses rushing for more than 150 yards (KC – 37/189/2, ATL – 31/151/1, CAR – 27/173/1, BAL – 33/231/1, CLE – 34/189/2, and SF – 36/209/3).
On SI Sportsbook, Pollard and Elliott are projected to rush for 47.5 yards. This week, I have them rated close in carries, while Pollard brings the most explosiveness to the table. Before the last two games (32/87 and 27/64), Dallas had a streak of 11 weeks with at least 115 rushing yards. Pollard has been quiet over his previous two contests rushing the ball (9/19 and 7/19), but his better success has been on the road (95/524/2 – 5.5 yards per carry).
Bet: Tom Brady – Under 28.5 completions
Tom Brady only attempted 27 passes in his first matchup against Dallas, leading to 212 yards, one touchdown, and two sacks. Before last week’s game (he played 56% of the snaps), Brady completed more than 30 passes in five consecutive starts, averaging 312 yards and 49.1 pass attempts. Despite his uptick in stats, he still gained only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Dallas has one top cornerback (Trevon Diggs), but an injury to CB Anthony Brown in Week 13 led to regressing on wide receivers coverage over the next three games (16/199/1, 16/230/4, and 16/241/2). In addition, the Cowboys’ offense won the time of possession battle in seven of their past two matchups.
Bets: Mike Evans – Over 63.5 yards receiving and over 23.5 yards for his longest catch.
Mike Evans has been a much better player at home (47/750/5 over eight starts) than on the road (30/374/1). CB Trevon Diggs tends to line up about 80% of the right side of the defense. Evans should see him on a fair share of play, but Tampa will move him around to get better matchups. CB Nahshon Wright offers better size (6’4” and 185 lbs.) to defend Evans, but he has allowed some big plays since moving into the starting lineup. Either way, Evans should see a favorable match or single coverage on many plays.
Bet: Dak Prescott – Over 247.5 passing yards
The Buccaneers’ pass defense benefited from 11 matchups vs. weaker passing teams (NO X 2, ATL X 2, CAR X 2, PIT, BAL, CLE, LAR, and ARI). They allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempt while giving up 27 passing touchdowns. Only one opponent gained more than 200 yards from their wide receivers (CAR – 14/215/2). Over his 12 starts, Dak Prescott attempted 30 passes or fewer in seven matchups. He passed for 250 yards or more in eight of his 10 starts.
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