The Buccaneers limp into the postseason with an 8-9 record, while finishing only one game ahead of the Panthers, Saints and Falcons in the NFC South standings. The Bucs dominated the Cowboys in Week 1 (19-3), but they finished the year with only six wins in their final 15 matchups. Their saving grace is Tom Brady, who has a 35-12 record in the postseason with seven Super Bowl titles.
The Bucs have talent at wide receiver (284/3,130/16 on 432 targets), but their offensive line must give Brady a longer passing window to create more touchdowns. Tampa Bay struggles to run the ball (366/1,2224/5 – 3.3 yards per carry), but its backs will catch plenty of passes (123/829/5). Brady has only been sacked 22 times thanks to his ability to get rid of the ball quickly, but he gained only 6.4 yards per pass attempt (7.4 in his career).
Tampa holds quarterbacks to 6.6 yards per pass attempt, with only one team passing for more than 275 yards. When some games have gone wrong, their run defense was an issue (KC – 37/189/2; ATL – 31/151/1; CAR – 27/173/1; BAL – 33/231/1; CLE – 34/189/2; SF – 56/209/3).
The Dallas defense lost its pass rush over the previous five games (six sacks – 54 on the year), leading to quarterbacks delivering nine touchdowns to wide receivers. A wideout has a score versus the Cowboys in seven consecutive games. In addition, two of their past four opponents passed for more than 300 yards (JAC – 318/4; PHI – 355/2). Dallas also struggled in three games defending the run (CHI – 43/240/2; GB – 39/207/1; JAC – 27/192).
Offensively, Dallas can’t win if Dak Prescott turns over the ball (11 interceptions over the past seven games). CeeDee Lamb (75/932/8) has been one of the better wide receivers over his last 11 matchups. However, the Cowboys must get Tony Pollard going after he tallied just just 99 combined yards with six catches over his previous two starts while missing a game with a thigh issue.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Wild-Card Odds
Moneyline: Cowboys (-143) | Buccaneers (+120)
Spread: DAL -2.5 (-118) | TB +2.5 (-110)
Total: 45.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Jan. 16, 2023 | 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
Cowboys Straight-Up Record: 12-5
Cowboys Against the Spread Record: 9-7-1
Buccaneers Straight-Up Record: 8-9
Buccaneers Against the Spread Record: 4-12-1
Bet on Cowboys-Buccaneers at SI Sportsbook
Odds and Betting Insights
Since winning the Super Bowl in 1995, the Cowboys have an eight-game road losing streak in the playoffs while picking up four home wins. This season, Dallas went 4-4 on the road. They are 0-4-1 over the last five road games on grass.
· The Cowboys are 4-5 against the spread (ATS) over their last nine games while being the favorite in all contests.
· The game total has gone over eight of the last 10 Cowboys’ games.
· Tampa was a two-point favorite versus the Cowboys in Week 1.
· Since Week 2, Tampa is 2-12-1 ATS (0-6 on the road).
· The Buccaneers have yet to cover in 2022 as an underdog (0-3).
· The game totals for Tampa started the year 10-2 in favor of the under, but the trend has shifted to the over in four of the past five contests.
The Cowboys are the better team, but their defense can’t let Brady dink and dunk his way up the field. My New England roots want to see Brady have one last dance, while others have seen enough of him over the previous two years. The Buccaneers have been a donation all year from a pure betting investment.
I’ll take Dallas straight-up, while laying the extra juice.
BET: Cowboys -2.5 (-118)
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