The Cowboys broke their eight-game road playoff losing streak Monday against the Buccaneers, giving Dak Prescott his first playoff win of his career. Even with a win, the Cowboys got beat in the secondary by Tampa’s wideouts (23/233/1 on 35 targets) and Tom Brady just missed a long score late in the game to Mike Evans.
Dallas has risk defending the run (497/2,198/9 – 4.4 yards per rush), which plays into the 49ers’ strength (467/2,191/18 – 4.7 yards per carry). San Francisco has been on a mission running the ball over the last six weeks (36/209/3; 34/170/1; 26/153/2; 27/170/2; 37/169/2; 33/181/1).
The Cowboys’ defense allowed more than 200 yards to wide receivers in three of their past five games (16/230/4; 16/241/2; 23/233/1).
The 49ers come into this week’s game with an 11-game winning streak, while scoring more than 30 points in six of their last seven matchups. Brock Purdy has been a savior at quarterback, leading to an impressive seven games (1,666 combined yards with 18 touchdowns) to start his NFL career. In addition, George Kittle upped his game over his previous five starts (20/302/7).
San Francisco finished with the league’s second-best defense vs. the run (389/1,321/11). Its defense allows 6.9 yards per pass attempt, but receivers increased their output three times over the past four weeks (15/205/3; 13/212/2; 20/225/2).
The Cowboys’ weakness down the stretch has been the turnovers by Prescott (11 interceptions over his last eight starts). On the positive side, he’s coming off his best game of the season (329 combined yards and five touchdowns). In addition, CeeDee Lamb has been elite since Week 7 (74/948/8 over 11 starts).
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Divisional Round Odds
Moneyline: Cowboys (+155) | 49ers (-188)
Spread: DAL +3.5 (-110) | 49ers -3.5 (-110)
Total: 45.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Jan. 22, 2023 | 6:30 p.m. ET | Fox
Cowboys Straight-Up Record: 13-5
Cowboys Against the Spread Record: 10-7-1
49ers Straight-Up Record: 14-4
49ers Against the Spread Record: 12-6
Bet on Cowboys-49ers at SI Sportsbook
Odds and Betting Insights
San Francisco is 9-1 at home, including seven straight wins. This game projects to have close to 60 runs with a fast-moving clock. The 49ers won their last six home matchups by a combined 117 points and each game by a minimum of 13 points.
The Cowboys are a better-quality team than the 49ers faced over the second half of the season and they have a play-making pass rusher (Micah Parsons – 13.5 sacks). I expect San Francisco to win going away.
· Dallas has been favored in its last 12 games and is 7-5 against the spread (ATS). The Cowboys started the season with three straight-up wins as an underdog, while falling to cover when getting points from the Bucs and Eagles.
· The game total has gone over in six of their last eight Cowboys’ games.
· The 49ers are 8-1 ATS over their previous nine games as a favorite.
· The over has been the winning investment six times over the last seven weeks for San Francisco.
BET: 49ers -3.5 (-110)
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