Fantasy managers and player proposition bettors find Week 5 of the NFL season kicking off with a Thursday Night matchup between the Colts and Broncos.
Both teams are dealing with major issues at the running back position. The Broncos lost leading rusher Javonte Williams (ACL, LCL) for the season last week, while Indianapolis is uncertain if star tailback Jonathan Taylor (ankle) will be healthy enough to suit up on the short week.
Michael Pittman, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy will be starting in almost every fantasy league. If you are opposed to wagering on the side or total, backing players from your own fantasy team to surpass their projections of score a touchdown can often result in an extremely profitable ROI.
With veteran quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson leading the offenses Thursday night, respected money has targeted several skill position players from both teams. Let’s take a deeper look at where they made investments!
Bet on Colts-Broncos Player Props at SI Sportsbook
Colts Player Prop Info
Alec Pierce Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Indianapolis rookie wideout Alec Pierce was solid in the Week 4 loss to the Titans. The former Cincinnati standout finished second on the team with four receptions for 80 yards and tied Mo Alie-Cox with six targets. Since returning from injury, Pierce has amassed 141 receiving yards over the last two games and emerged as the clear WR2. With Pittman likely drawing Denver top cornerback Patrick Surtain, look for Ryan to target Pierce early and often, which should result in the rookie surpassing a projection he has easily done in consecutive weeks (61, 80).
Mo Alie-Cox Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Don’t laugh. Hear me out here. The fifth-year tight end, who was quiet the first three games, exploded for a team-high six receptions and 85 receiving yards and two touchdowns last week against Tennessee. Cox was on the field for a season-high 46 snaps (70%) and he appears to be developing a rapport with Ryan as a security blanket in the middle of the field. Tight ends have averaged 47 yards per game against the Denver defense this season, and with a projection total of only 17.5 yards we will likely only need one or two receptions for this investment to cash on a player who is averaging 12.9 yards per reception through four games.
PROP BETS:
Alec Pierce, WR, Colts: Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Mo Alie-Cox, TE, Colts: Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Broncos Player Prop Info
Jerry Jeudy Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Jeudy is the clear WR2 in the Denver offense behind Sutton. In the two games this season in which he has been healthy, Week 1 and Week 4, the third-year receiver has been on the field for 89% of the snaps. His presence on the field has led to solid production with Jeudy hauling in seven receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks in the season opener, and five receptions for 53 yards and a touchdown last week against the Raiders. With a weakened rushing attack due to Williams’s absence, Denver will likely take to the air in this matchup. Expect Denver to avoid the Colts’ sixth-best rush defense allowing 89.5 rushing yards per game, and instead utilize its best weapons in the passing game.
Melvin Gordon Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Melvin Gordon will now take over a bigger role in the Denver backfield following Williams’s season-ending injury. Respected money in Vegas is targeting his receiving yard projection of 12.5 yards. Thus far, running backs have amassed 23 receptions for 173 yards in four games against the Colts with five running backs (Rex Burkhead, 30; James Robinson, 14; Travis Etienne, 33; Derrick Henry, 33; Dontrell Hilliard, 18) exceeding this projection against Indianapolis this season. Gordon, who surpassed this projection in two of four games splitting work with Williams, has outperformed this number in 10 of his last 20 games.
PROP BETS:
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos: Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos: Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
2022 SI Betting NFL: 1-2-1 ATS & Props 6-8 -1.45 Units
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 9-8 ATS & Props 16-12 +5.75 Units
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS & Prop Wagers +4.00 Units
2021 SI Betting NFL Overall: 53-44-1 ATS & Props +14.22 Units
2020 SI Betting NFL: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting’s Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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