Heading into last week’s game vs. the 49ers, the benching of Derek Carr invited concerns about whether or not the Raiders would play inspired ball vs. a top-tier defense. In the end, Jarrett Stidham made the most of his opportunity, leading to 365 passing yards and three touchdowns. He completed nine passes of 20 yards or more, with two of the plays reaching the 40-yard mark. More importantly, Davante Adams delivered a beast game (7/153/2) with multiple challenging catches. In the end, their overtime loss officially ended the postseason hopes for Las Vegas.
Kansas City has run off nine wins over its past 10 games after losing at home to the Bills. The Chiefs enter Week 18 tied with Buffalo in the loss column (3), giving them an outside chance of finishing as the top seed in the AFC. The Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring (465 points), but they have also allowed the most points (356) among AFC teams currently qualifying for the postseason.
A change of coaching staff in Las Vegas didn’t help the team over the first nine games (2-7), with six losses coming by a touchdown or less. However, down the stretch, the Raiders have fought hard in every game (4-3). Their three losses came by three points each. Las Vegas struggles to pressure the quarterback (25 sacks – none over the past three games) while fading over the past three weeks vs. the run (32/206/1, 27/106, and 27/170/2). Their defense does tighten up in the red zone (20 field goals in their last nine matchups), but offenses have a minimum of three touchdowns in nine of the 16 games.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds
Moneyline: Chiefs (-450) | Raiders (+350)
Spread: KC -8.5 (-118) | LV +8.5 (+100)
Total: 52.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Game Info: Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023 | 4:30 p.m. ET | ABC
Chiefs Straight-Up Record: 13-3
Chiefs Against the Spread Record: 4-11-1
Raiders Straight-Up Record: 6-10
Raiders Against the Spread Record: 8-8
Bet on Chiefs-Raiders at SI Sportsbook
Offensively, the Raiders run the ball well (403/1,960/13 – 4.9 yards per rush), and the passing game spreads the ball well among running backs (88/660/2), wide receivers (188/2,521/20 – thanks to Adams: 95/1,443/14) and tight ends (61/782/5). The mobility of Stidham should help the passing window for Las Vegas.
Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards (5,048) and touchdowns (44) despite lacking an impact option at wide receiver (188/2,506/13). He has the best tight end production (141/1,710/14) in the NFL while relying more on his running backs over the past five weeks (34/374/7). Kansas City scored 57 touchdowns in 2022, with plenty of help running the ball (389/1,802/15).
Kansas City will pressure the quarterback (49 sacks), leading to them gaining only 6.7 yards per pass attempt (6.0 over their past four games). The Chiefs will give up rushing yards (1,724), but running backs only have seven scores on the ground. Offenses can beat Kansas City with passing touchdowns (32).
Odds and Betting Insights
With this game being played Saturday, all eyes around the NFL will be watching. Three teams (BUF, CIN and KC) are within striking distance of earning a first-round bye in the AFC. Since moving to Las Vegas, the Raiders are 1-4 against the Chiefs, with a pair of blowout losses in 2021 (41-14 and 48-9). Earlier this season, Kansas City edged out a 30-29 win at home vs. Las Vegas. Mahomes has been a magician all season, and he should find a way to win this game. My bet is on the Raiders with the points. The only team to beat Las Vegas by more than a touchdown in 2022 was the Saints (24-0).
· Kansas City has failed to cover the spread in its past six games against the AFC West. In addition, they are 0-4 vs. the betting line in their past four games when favored on the road.
- The Chiefs are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games. In their 13 wins, they’ve covered six times.
- Las Vegas is 6-0 vs. the point spread when facing a team with a winning record (four games have been at home).
- The Raiders are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games and 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
