The final leg of the Triple Crown is here—although it looks a little different than in years past.
This year's Belmont Stakes, the last of the three meaningful horse races of the year behind the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, is not being held at its classic location of Belmont Park. Instead, the race will be held at Saratoga, a track quite used to large crowds and big races. Belmont Park is undergoing renovations this year so the race shifted to Saratoga.
There are no horses competing to complete the Triple Crown this year after Mystik Dan won the Derby and Seize the Grey took the top spot at Preakness. But it's still set to be a great day of horse racing.
How much would it cost to meander on up to Saratoga and buy tickets to see the Belmont Stakes play out? Here's the breakdown of the ticket prices.
You can find the various pricing options available through the Belmont Stakes website, which then redirects to Ticketmaster. There, general admission tickets are currently going for $64.35, or $55 before fees. The GA ticket gets you onto the grounds where you can enjoy all the basic amenities the course has to offer, and offers standing room access for the Clubhouse, Grandstand, and Backyard areas.
However, there are alternative options if you were interested in a more elevated experience.
For a prime view at the final turn, you'll want a ticket for the Cutwater Stretch Grandstand. It's an exclusive private hospitality area with a buffet, cash bar, and private betting areas. Prices vary for the Cutwater Stretch; the cheapest available is $556 after fees and the priciest, which secures you a front-row seat in the Grandstand right at the turn itself, is going for $2,574.
Should you really want to ball out, you can rent out a Spa Veranda on top of the Grandstand at the final turn. Each veranda can host up to 50 guests apiece and comes with "an all-inclusive platter and premium open bar package." They are available starting at $5,500.
If proximity to the finish line is all that matters, you better have bought your tickets a while ago. The only luxury seating area located directly next to the finish line is The Porch, which sold out well in advance. However, there are tickets still available for the 1863 Club, which is just past the finish line. A ticket to get in the door there is going for $2,020.
All in all, as was the case with the Derby and Preakness, it is not altogether unreasonable to simply get through the gates to see the race. The bill runs high when you start branching out into additional amenities. But if you wanted to just see the horses, $65 is all that it'll cost.
The 2024 Kentucky Derby was as thrilling as it gets. The 150th Run for the Roses finished in breathtaking fashion in a three-way photo finish in the closes race the event has seen since 1996. Many are still buzzing about the result, including some controversy involving jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who was riding runner-up Sierra Leone.
Gaffalione has been ordered to do a film review of the race with stewards on Thursday. Gaffalione could face discipline after the review.
The incident in question came on the final straightaway as Sierra Leone and Forever Young closed on eventual winner Mystik Dan. Gaffalione and Sierra Leone were positioned on the outside, with Forever Young to their left and Mystik Dan on the inside. As the horses neared the finish, Gaffalione reached out with his left arm and appeared to grab Forever Young, ridden by jockey Ryusei Sakai. He maintained contact for a few seconds as the horses appeared to be jostling for position.
Here is the statement from the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission issued on Monday:
"The Stewards review every race in Kentucky live and by video replay before posting it official and they followed the same procedure for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. After conducting their standard review of the race, determining no further review or investigation was necessary to conclude there were no incidents that altered the finish of the race, and seeing there were no objections filed, the Stewards posted the Kentucky Derby official. Following the race, the Stewards ordered Tyler Gaffalione, jockey aboard Sierra Leone, to film review on May 9, 2024. The Stewards conduct film reviews routinely to review the conduct of jockeys during a race. The Stewards, in their discretion, can take disciplinary action against a jockey following the review."
It's unclear what will happen as a result of the review, but SI's Pat Forde speculated a short suspension would likely be the most that would come of it. And it could result in no punishment at all.
Walking by the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle after the biggest victory of his life, trainer Kenny McPeek held the hand of his daughter, Annie. McPeek looked at her and, with his other hand, held his index finger and thumb about three inches apart. That was his assessment of the margin of victory in one of the most dramatic Derbies in the 150-year history of the race.
A three-horse photo finish, the first in the Derby since 1947, turned the 1 1/4-mile race into a withering battle of inches in the final strides. Nobody knew in real time who won—Mystik Dan on the inside, or the hard-charging duo of Sierra Leone and Forever Young in the middle of the track. When the official order of finish was posted it evoked gasps and roars from the Churchill Downs crowd of 156,710, with Mystik Dan declared the winner by a nose over Sierra Leone in second and Forever Young third.
Mystik Dan’s win was a significant upset at odds of 18-1, but the first career Derby win for McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez nearly got away from them at the last second. Hernandez had gotten Mystik Dan clear in the stretch and was seemingly home free, driving for the finish line. Hernandez had no idea what was coming for him.
“Three jumps before the wire,” he said, “I didn’t see them at all.”
Then the pursuers loomed alongside. Sierra Leone and Forever Young waged their own battle and evoked memories of the 1933 “Fighting Finish” Derby, in which the jockeys of Brokers Tip and Head Play engaged in literal hand-to-hand combat in the stretch. Sierra Leone jockey Tyler Gafflione reached out with his left hand to seemingly grab the saddle or reins of Forever Young as they dueled. In the end, they both came up agonizingly short.
Past the wire, Hernandez thought he won but wasn’t sure as Mystik Dan galloped out around the turn. The jockey asked an outrider if the result was official yet, but it wasn’t.
“That was the longest two minutes in sports,” Hernandez said. “From the fastest two minutes (as the Derby is known) to the longest two minutes.”
After that brief eternity, the outrider got the news and relayed it to Hernandez: “You just won the Kentucky Derby.”
That moment capped an epic 25 hours for McPeek and Hernandez, who teamed up to win the Kentucky Oaks Friday with monster filly Thorpedo Anna. McPeek became the first trainer since 1952 to win that double, and Hernandez was the first jockey to do so since 2009. Neither man operates at the highest echelon of horse racing, but they stand astride the sport today.
In the days leading up to those races, McPeek radiated an almost outrageous confidence. “It wouldn’t surprise me if I won both,” he said two weeks ago.
The Oaks unfolded largely as expected Friday, with 4-1 Thorpedo Anna (“a grizzly,” McPeek says) dominating. Then came the harder part Saturday.
McPeek arrived at his Churchill barn at 7:30 a.m. Saturday, opened the back of his Mercedes SUV to let out his dog, and greeted reporters with this line: “Let’s do it again tonight.”
And then they did, with Hernandez delivering a ride that was both smart and daring.
The 38-year-old Louisiana native, who rides regularly at Churchill, got Mystik Dan out of the gate cleanly and steered him from the No. 3 post quickly to the rail for a ground-saving trip. Hernandez kept Mystik Dan tucked into a pocket of clear ground, never farther back than eighth place, settling the colt into an easy stride. “He was just cruising along so nicely and so comfortable,” Hernandez said.
From there, Hernandez drafted behind Track Phantom through the far turn. When Track Phantom drifted just a touch off the rail, Hernandez pounced. He urged Mystik Dan into the hole like a running back finding a sliver of daylight.
Joel Rosario appeared to try to swerve Track Phantom back over to cut him off. The two horses bumped hips but Mystik Dan was undeterred—he’s a smaller horse but still powered through along the rail and cut the corner into the stretch, drawing clear.
“Brian gave us a huge opportunity because we saved ground, saved ground, saved ground,” McPeek said. “And when you look at that photo finish, I think we needed all of it to hold off the two second- and third-place horses.”
It takes incredible nerve to urge a horse into a tight spot at high speed. But the Derby was on the line. It was a now-or-never moment and a spur-of-the-moment decision.
Mystik Dan, far, ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr won the 150th Kentucky Derby.
Matt Stone//Courier Journal / USA TODAY
“We might have took out a little bit of the inside fence, but that's okay,” Hernandez joked.
Hernandez had spent many years at Churchill learning from the master of the inside move, Calvin Borel, who won Derbies aboard Mine That Bird and Super Saver by hugging the rail. The shortest way around the track is as close to the rail as possible.
“As a young kid out of Louisiana, I got the privilege of sitting in the same corner (in the jockeys room) as Calvin Borel,” Hernandez said. “So I got to watch him ride those Derbies all those years. And today, with Mystik Dan being in the three‑hole, I watched a couple of his rides there between Super Saver and Mine That Bird. I said, ‘You know what? We're going to roll the dice.’”
Hernandez rolled sevens, Meanwhile, favored Fierceness rolled snake eyes—getting a favorable trip and pace but fading badly in the stretch to finish 15th. Second choice Sierra Leone came running late, as expected, but couldn’t collar Mystik Dan.
Sierra Leone was a $2.3 million yearling purchase, regally bred and seemingly destined for this moment. Mystik Dan was a homebred owned by Arkansas businessman Lance Gasaway, a former standout small-college wide receiver for the Arkansas-Monticello Boll Weevils who had never gotten a horse to the Derby before.
Asked what he was going to do Saturday night to celebrate, Gasaway said, “Probably drink a lot of alcohol.”
Gasaway got into racing through his father, who died a year ago Saturday. His stable isn’t lavish, but the decision—informed by input from McPeek—to breed their mare, Ma’am, to former Derby runner Goldencents proved to be the master stroke that produced Mystik Dan.
“This isn’t some zillion-dollar operation,” McPeek said. “We didn’t throw money at this. We thoughtfully went through it all, and it’s amazing.”
The 61-year-old McPeek has been around the sport for a long time, rising to within reach of winning a Derby in the 1990s. He finished second in 1995 with Tejano Run and had the 2001 favorite, Harlan’s Holiday, who finished seventh. Meanwhile, the Lexington, Ky., product and University of Kentucky graduate dabbled in things like developing an app (Horse Races Now) for videos of races. He’s always been a racing wonk who loves to talk about the inner workings of the sport.
“My grandfather took me to the races at Keeneland when I was boy,” he said. “Learned how to read a pedigree. Used to go to the Keeneland library and read about good horses. Went to [Kentucky] and found the [agriculture] library—in the basement of the agriculture library, I read every thoroughbred and blood horse record ever printed when I was in college.”
He’s won some big races—the 2002 Belmont, the 2020 Preakness, the Kentucky Oaks on Friday—but the Derby had remained elusive. For a Kentuckian, that was tough. Now, he’s reached the pinnacle.
By a matter of inches. The margin between making history and suffering a staggering defeat was that tiny. The three-horse photo finish in the 150th Kentucky Derby will be talked about in the sport for the next 150 years.
The 2024 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs came right down to the wire.
Mystik Dan edged Sierra Leone and Forever Young by a nose on Saturday, surging ahead on the final turn and barely holding on to secure an upset victory.
The race was so close it took officials several minutes to officially proclaim Mystik Dan as the winner.
Mystik Dan, guided by jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., previously finished third at the Arkansas Derby in March and won the Grade III Southwest Stakes in February.
"Brian just did an amazing job," Mystik Dan's trainer Ken McPeek said after the race. "Just a brilliant, brilliant jockey and ride."
McPeek completed a career Triple Crown as a trainer, previously winning the Preakness in 2020 with Swiss Skydiver and the 2002 Belmont Stakes with Sarava.
Mystik Dan will have a chance to notch the second title of a Triple Crown pursuit on May 18 at the Preakness Stakes in Baltimore.
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce was among the celebrities enjoying an afternoon at the 2024 Kentucky Derby on Saturday afternoon.
He flexed a bit of fashion, too. Kelce, who signed a two-year contract extension with the Chiefs earlier this week, donned a white pinstripe suit with a blue top hat to the event.
Kelce and the Chiefs will reunite later this month when organized team activities begin May 20. The 34-year-old tight end will be chasing a third straight Super Bowl title and his eighth career 1,000-yard season in 2024 after coming up just 16 yards short last year.
This week, University of Kentucky redshirt sophomore Jackson Smith announced his commitment to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers from the transfer portal. Smith spent the previous two seasons with the Wildcats where he never saw game action, but was twice named to the SEC academic honor roll.
Extremely excited to continue my academic and athletic career at WKU! Go Tops! pic.twitter.com/RtOPUHeFzr
Smith was an extremely accomplished specialist in high school, winning National Specialist of the Year three years in a row (2019, 2020, 2021) from ProKicker.com. The same outlet named him as #1 kicker/punter in the 2022 recruiting class. Smith is also the son of former All-SEC punter Andy Smith, who also played at Kentucky.
Current WKU field goal kicker Lucas Carneiro, also a redshirt sophomore, was a CUSA honorable mention after going a perfect 47-for-47 on PATs in 2023. He was 9-12 on field goal attempts last season. The starting punter position will be different in 2023 after Tom Ellard's transfer to Division II's Northern State University.
WKU will open the 2024 season on August 31 at Alabama.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency issued a news release that raised eyebrows and revived suspicions in thoroughbred racing. In the first four months of 2024, the CBP’s Port of Cincinnati office intercepted eight shipments of venom from snakes, scorpions and spiders, plus other substances used as performance enhancers in horses.
The venoms have been used at racetracks as numbing agents for horses, allowing them to run through injuries. The shipments were coming from Mexico, according to the release, and some were headed to people “with nexus to racing or other horse performance venues.”
With the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, this drug bust was another periodic reminder of the drug cloud and attendant equine safety issues that hover over horse racing. So was the recent New York Times documentary, “Broken Horses,” which examined the spates of equine deaths that rocked the sport last year—including 12 at Churchill Downs in the weeks before and after the Derby, which led to an unprecedented shutdown and relocation of the track’s spring meet. And there was the news from Oaklawn Park in Arkansas about two horses under the care of trainer Tim Martin who died suddenly this week.
There are many people attempting to clean up the sport, and progress has been made. The Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) is making strides as a regulatory body, though resistance persists in some corners. In general, racetrack equine deaths have declined over time (though there was a slight rise last year, up from 1.25 per 1,000 starts in 2022 to 1.32 in ’23). It’s harder now to sweep aside horse deaths without some measure of accountability.
But controversies past and present are always close at hand. Take a glance at the entries for the Derby, and a couple of names provide context for the inner conflicts of racing.
One is trainer Saffie Joseph, who will saddle Catalytic in the Run for the Roses. Last year at this time, Joseph was sent packing from Churchill after two of his horses died suddenly, Parents Pride and Chasing Artie. Joseph was suspended and his Derby colt, Lord Miles, was not allowed to run. “I was a scapegoat,” Joseph said at the time, inferring that the track had to find someone to punish amid a cluster of pre-Derby horse deaths.
By the end of June, Joseph had been reinstated at Churchill after a Kentucky Horse Racing Commission investigation. "We remain deeply concerned about the condition of Parents Pride and Chasing Artie that led to their sudden death,” said Bill Mudd, president and chief operating officer of Churchill Downs, Inc. “However, given the details available to us as a result of the KHRC investigation, there is no basis to continue Joseph's suspension.”
Joseph, who said he has never spoken to Churchill CEO Bill Carstanjen, is wondering where he needs to go to have his reputation restored after necropsies of the horses did not conclude anything nefarious.
“It crushes you,” he says. “I’m glad everything worked out and the truth was revealed. One of the horses had rat poison in it—they said that the level wasn’t enough to cause it, but they’re not going to say that. But if you look at the report, it says that. Did that cause it? We don’t know.
“I knew we didn’t do anything. It destroys you.”
Kentucky Derby horse Track Phantom is co-owned by Brewster and trained by Steve Asmussen.
Matt Stone/The Courier Journal / USA
Another name: Clark Brewster, part owner of Derby runner Track Phantom. He’s better known in racing as Bob Baffert’s voluble, caustic and contentious lawyer.
Baffert is the biggest trainer in the sport and also a current pariah at Churchill. He won a record-breaking seven Kentucky Derbys but had to give the last one back, the 2021 triumph by Medina Spirit, which was stripped after the horse tested positive for a prohibited race-day medication. That has spurred an endless feud between Baffert and Carstanjen.
Baffert initially was assessed a two-year ban from competition at Churchill, knocking him out of the 2022 and ’23 Derbys. Baffert sued Churchill in March ’22, but the case was dismissed last year. Then last July, the suspension was extended another year, with a Churchill release saying that "Mr. Baffert continues to peddle a false narrative concerning the failed drug test of Medina Spirit … A trainer who is unwilling to accept responsibility for multiple drug test failures in our highest-profile races cannot be trusted to avoid future misconduct."
That showdown added another chapter this spring when Amr Zedan, owner of the Baffert-trained standout Muth, attempted to sue his way into this Derby. That suit, which cited “Carstanjen egomania” in arguing that Baffert was being unfairly punished, also was unsuccessful. But Muth looms as a potential Preakness favorite and Triple Crown spoiler two weeks after the Derby.
On the slight chance that long-shot Track Phantom wins the Derby, keep the cameras rolling on Brewster. If he encounters Carstanjen in the winner’s circle it could be spicy.
Churchill Downs has gone to massive lengths to gussy itself up for the 150th Derby, sinking $200 million into remodeling its paddock area. The result is a three-level masterpiece of modern architecture that dramatically modernizes the place. It is primarily targeted for use one weekend a year by the rich, of course, but will also be enjoyed and appreciated by everyday racegoers for years to come.
There is change on the other side of the grandstand as well, less glamorous but more closely aligned to the survival of horse racing: The dirt racing surface has been redone. It’s darker and, some trainers said in recent days, deeper than it had been. A new fleet of tractors harrow the dirt between races and during morning training hours, and new methods of testing the track have been implemented. The horses are wearing biofeedback sensors that can help spot issues with stride and potentially flag developing injuries. A safety management committee composed of trainers, jockeys and other track workers meets once a week.
How much will all that help? It remains to be seen. But the changes are a tacit acknowledgment that the one thing that can kill horse racing is the killing of horses.
The 2024 Kentucky Derby has finally arrived, and it is a big one. Saturday's race will mark the 150th to take place at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. There will undoubtedly be some additional fanfare to celebrate the sesquicentennial race, but you can also expect the usual Derby fare — outrageous outfits, Mint Juleps, and an exciting race.
There will also be the usual assortment of famous and wealthy individuals in attendance. The Derby, among all its other qualities, is a gathering place for many highly successful individuals, from Tom Brady to Jack Harlow. Even the Queen of England attended back in 2007. Whenever the camera pans ove the crowd during the Derby the audience is almost assured to spot someone rich, famous, or both.
Those people don't have any trouble attending the Derby, what with their endless bank accounts and all. But what are ticket prices like for the general population?
An Infield General Admission ticket, which gets you in the door, costs $130. This is as basic as basic admission gets for the Derby. You get to go in through the gates to Churchill Downs, receive a program, enjoy what must be an overpriced specialty cocktail, and set up your own lawn chair to watch the Derby itself on the big board.
The next level of GA is listed as an Infield Final Turn General Admission ticket. The price point starts at $275, and it is as advertised. A standing room only ticket that lets you set up shop on the lawn right by the final turn. An exciting place to be, no matter how close the race is, and a fairly reasonable price upgrade compared to the Infield GA ticket.
A higher-level entry price comes in the form of a Frontside Plaza Walkaround ticket, which are already sold out. The starting price listed on the Derby website for such a ticket is $693. Sold as a two-day package for the Kentucky Oaks as well as the Derby, it's advertised as enjoying "a reimagined view of the Paddock with standing room access and frontside amenities." Regardless, that's a pretty penny, to be sure.
After that is when the real money starts rolling. The hospitality suites are all very expensive; the Silks Balcony & Loge, for example, charges $3,650 for entry. The Turf Club Balcony & Terrace costs $3,525 to get in. There are some more semi-reasonable options, such as the Champions Balcony & Loge ($1,775) or the Plaza Balcony & Loge ($1,775).
The nicest listed options appear to be the Woodford Reserve Paddock Club & Enclosure and the Spires Terrace & Suites. Neither has a price listed; interested parties must contact the Derby. As with many sporting events, the "cheap" options aren't very cheap and the nicest options can run up to thousands of dollars.
That's just about all you need to know about how much it costs to attend the Kentucky Derby in 2024. Enjoy!
For those in the game, horse racing is an accrual of scar tissue. It’s a steady layering of disappointments that is blessedly alleviated by the soothing balm of occasional victory. If hitters in baseball are celebrated for being successful 30% of the time at the plate, that’s still better than horsemen—none of the top 25 North American trainers for 2024 has a win percentage higher than 29.
And no race is harder to capture than the biggest of them all, the Kentucky Derby. Chad Brown is one of the most successful trainers in the sport and Mike Repole is one of the most successful owners, yet the Derby has kicked them around plenty. They’re a combined 0-for-14 in the Run for the Roses—but that stat only scratches the surface of their scars.
This year, maybe, one of them will break through. The irrepressible Repole owns the Derby favorite, Fierceness. The pensive Brown trains the Derby second choice, Sierra Leone. On paper, they appear to loom over their 18 rivals. But paper can be shredded quickly when the starting gate springs open Saturday evening at Churchill Downs.
They know better than to get overly optimistic. It’s all too fragile.
Repole has seen his blue-and-orange racing silks—the colors of his beloved New York Mets and Knicks—go to post seven times in the Derby. His best finish is fifth. But the real heartache came in 2011 and again last year, when his best colts were scratched late in the lead-up to the race.
Repole interacts with his horse, Fierceness, the Kentucky Derby favorite.
Pat McDonogh / USA TODAY NETWORK
Thirteen years ago, 2-year-old champion Uncle Mo was the second choice in the morning-line odds, having won four out of five career races. But the day before the Derby, Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher pulled Uncle Mo out of the race after he developed an illness that caused him to lose weight.
“I don’t think I’ve ever had a horse as good as Uncle Mo,” Pletcher said at the time, one year after winning his first Derby with Super Saver.
“Uncle Mo, in my opinion, he’s five to seven lengths better than any horse in this race,” Repole said. “As bad as I want [to] win this race, [Pletcher] is 43 and I’m 42. He looks a lot older than I do, but the bottom line is that we’re going to be around a while.”
Pletcher and Repole hung around long enough to see gut-punch history repeat in 2023, when favored 2-year-old champion Forte was stunningly scratched by Churchill veterinarians the morning of the Derby. Forte had stumbled slightly during a Thursday breeze on the track and was diagnosed with a foot bruise. In a week rife with racing tragedy, with a dozen horses dying due to a variety of issues, caution prevailed and the colt was sidelined.
“I’m devastated,” Repole said last year. “I’m shocked. I think they were overly cautious, but I have to respect the fact that they’re overly cautious.”
Last year’s devastation has been rinsed away. An entrepreneur who has made a lot of money in a variety of ways, Repole is a font of optimism. He’s fourth among North American thoroughbred owners in earnings for 2024 and is always looking for his next score. He is not easily discouraged.
“A year after Forte, and I got Fierceness?” Repole said last week. “What great luck. Like, what the f***? There’s 20,000 foals born every year, and the Derby favorite was one out of 20,000 and now you come back a f***ing year later and you have one out of 20,000 again? What great luck. I’m humbled by this. This is not normal. Three 2-year-old champions.
“No one should feel bad for Mike Repole. I’ve got a pretty awesome life. I’ve got an awesome family—my parents, my daughter, my wife, my friends from childhood. I’m 0-for-7 with [Derby] starters, 0-for-2 with [scratched] favorites, 0-for-9. This will be No. 10. Who would have thought that growing up in Queens and going to Aqueduct, I’d be on my 10th Derby entry? It’s all great.”
Brown has been teased by the Derby gods even more than Repole. On three separate occasions, he’s felt the massive adrenaline rush of seeing his horse enter the home stretch with a chance to win—Normandy Invasion was on the lead in 2013, while Good Magic and Zandon were giving chase in second place in ’18 and ’22. None hit the wire first.
Normandy Invasion faded to fourth after chasing a hot early pace. Good Magic couldn’t catch Justify, a monster on his way to winning the Triple Crown. Zandon dueled with Epicenter before both were passed in deep stretch by a certifiable fluke, 80–1 long shot Rich Strike.
“What a feeling both ways,” Brown says. “I’ve had the fortune of having the feeling that most trainers will never get—when you turn for home in the Derby, three times I thought I was going to win.
“That long walk [to the barn] afterwards, each time I walked back on the track thinking, ‘I’m not positive I’ll be back with a horse quite as good.’ It’s one thing to get a horse to the Derby, but can you get to the quarter pole in the Derby? By the quarter pole, most of them can’t win. That’s a hard spot to get to.”
Brown at his stable on the backside of Churchill Downs.
Matt Stone/The Courier Journal / USA
The only spot harder to reach is the Derby winner’s circle. If either Repole or Brown is going to get there this year, it will be via distinctly different race scenarios.
The 5–2 morning-line favorite, Fierceness’s weapon is sheer speed. A slight, wiry colt, the Repole homebred doesn’t look like much until he’s in full flight. Fierceness has lost two of five lifetime races after poor starts, breaking poorly in the Champagne Stakes as a 2-year-old and being pinballed by other horses after the break in the Holy Bull Stakes. But when he breaks cleanly and avoids trouble, it’s over.
The most recent evidence of that was a 13½-length blowout in the Florida Derby. Fierceness got to the front, dictated terms and then drew off in a jaw-dropping performance.
“When he runs his race, he’s just faster than these horses,” Brown says of his top competition. “If he gets the position early in the race he likes, and he gets away from there cleanly and he takes to the Churchill track, he’s going to be tough to run down. He’s just running a bit faster than these horses. So I respect the horse a lot, and we’ll just see how it plays out into that first turn. I’d say that he’s a deserving favorite for sure.”
Sierra Leone, 3–1 in the morning line, is a closer who will come from off the pace. The regally bred son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner looks the part of a champion—he’s a physical specimen. His pedigree and conformation led a deep-pocketed ownership group to spend a whopping $2.3 million on him as a yearling in ’22.
“You could breed literally many thousands of horses and not get one to come out that perfect, in every regard,” Brown says.
Sierra Leone gallops at Churchill Downs.
Pat McDonogh / USA TODAY NETWORK / USA
From there, it was up to Brown not to blow it—something that happens more often than you might think with pricey horses. (The most expensive yearling of all-time, The Green Monkey, fetched a preposterous $16 million at auction in 2006 and never won a race.) Brown earned the opportunity with a résumé that includes 18 Breeders’ Cup victories, two Preakness triumphs and leading North America in earnings five different years.
“There’s a lot of pressure associated when the ownership group chooses you to train a sale-topping yearling like this,” Brown says. “They have a lot of choices. When they pick you as a trainer, you take a lot of responsibility with that. They don’t apply pressure; you apply pressure yourself. It’s a wonderful group to train for, very experienced ownership. But yes, the expectations are high, so it’s extra rewarding to get to at least this moment, to confirm that they made a good decision.”
Sierra Leone has lost only once, by just a nose, last December. His two 3-year-old races have been stirring stretch wins in the Risen Star and Blue Grass Stakes, displaying the requisite stamina to handle the Derby’s 1¼-mile distance.
The question for Sierra Leone will be traffic, since he will be starting from the problematic No. 2 post and coming from well back in a 20-horse field. There figures to be a lot in the way for jockey Tyler Gaffalione to weave through.
“A big horse with his running style, it does make the trip more challenging,” Brown says. “Ironically in this race, you’d probably prefer a handier horse that maybe has a little more speed and is not quite as big, because of the 20-horse field and tight turns at Churchill. But he does have other attributes that you like.”
Sierra Leone has many attributes. So does Fierceness. Their accomplishments to date have moved them to the forefront of the 150th Kentucky Derby—so close they can almost touch it. Mike Repole and Chad Brown are just two minutes and change away from a breakthrough victory in a race that has haunted them. But only one can get there, and maybe neither will.
This is the game. Even the most successful horsemen lose far more often than they win, and no race is harder to win than this one.
The Kentucky Derby is one of the hardest horse races to bet because it’s unknown territory for the equine competitors. They’ve never run this far and never been part of a field this size. With 20 3-year-olds going 1¼ miles, things can get wild and weird.
But that won’t stop the betting public from trying. It might be a fool’s errand trying to hit the Derby, but it’s also a badge of honor. You have to take a swing, if only for the bragging rights if you somehow get it right.
Accordingly, this is how I would bet $100 in the 150th Run for the Roses on Saturday at Churchill Downs. (Disclaimer: If you unwisely choose to follow my sketchy strategy, that’s a you problem and not a me problem.)
Fierceness is the deserving favorite, and in early wagering, he was bet down from 5–2 to 2–1 as of Thursday afternoon. As is often the case in the gossipy racetrack world, there has been a lot of whispering about whether Fierceness has lost his fastball this week. I’m not buying it.
He’s not physically imposing and isn’t a dazzling morning galloper, but when asked to race, his best is far better than any of his competition. He could, to use a racing term, “bounce” (regress) off his massive Florida Derby effort and still win. Fierceness has the raw speed to get away from early traffic problems as long as he breaks well.
I look for him to be on or near an honest pace before taking command of the race with about five furlongs to go. If the first half mile is run faster than 46 seconds, that will tax the front-runners; if it’s 46 or slower, they’re in good shape. John Velazquez, Fierceness’s excellent jockey, could dictate the early fractions if he gets to the lead without serious pressure.
The win bet: $40 on Fierceness.
Most of the other $60 will go into exotics in search of a bigger payday. I’ll play a $5, three-horse exacta box with Fierceness, Sierra Leone (5–1 as of Thursday afternoon) and Just A Touch (a juicy 14–1). That bet—which calls for two of those three to finish 1-2, in any order—will cost $30.
I’ll also take a swing at a $1 trifecta part wheel, trying to hit the top three finishers. I’ll play Fierceness and Sierra Leone in first with those two, Just A Touch, Catching Freedom (8–1) and Forever Young (8–1) in both the second and third spots. That’s a $24 bet.
I’ll play a $2 Oaks-Derby double, which is picking the winners of both the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and the Derby on Saturday. The wager there will be on Thorpedo Anna in the Oaks and Fierceness in the Derby.
The last four dollars are simply to avoid actively hating myself. I’ll place a $2 win bet on the horse that’s looked good every morning on the track but I don’t have covered otherwise (Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold at 34–1) and $2 to win on the longest shot on the board (currently Society Man at 59–1). The latter hedge bet is in deference to the Rich Strike fluke-burger win in 2022.
Good luck to everyone. We can all complain about how bad our wagers turn out Saturday night.
