Joe Burrow and the Bengals have flipped to become road betting favorites over the Chiefs in the AFC championship as sportsbooks continue to be flooded with bettors fading an injured Patrick Mahomes.
Faced with the impossible task of deciphering the health of Mahomes’s injured ankle, bettors should instead focus on player proposition investments.
Burrow has thrived in three career games versus the Chiefs, throwing for 982 yards and eight touchdowns, while adding one rushing score. Bettors should expect one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks to again heavily target his top weapon Ja’Marr Chase – who has nine touchdowns over his last nine games.
Last week, Travis Kelce proved to bettors he can be trusted to post solid production no matter who is under center. Kelce didn’t miss a beat when Mahomes was forced out of the game in the second quarter, catching four of the five completions thrown by backup Chad Henne – including a pivotal touchdown minutes before halftime.
Kelce (1,389) will soon take sole possession of third place in NFL all-time postseason receiving yards, moving ahead of Rob Gronkowski (1,389). Arguably the best tight end to ever play the game, the nine-year veteran is 53 yards behind Juilan Edelman (1,442) and 856 yards behind Jerry Rice (2,245) in playoff history.
Over the last three weeks of NFL action, respected money information from Las Vegas has helped the SI Betting community go 9-4 on player proposition wagers. In the AFC championship game, they have targeted three skill position players that offer solid value. Let’s take a deeper look at where they made investments!
Bengals-Chiefs AFC Championship Game Player Props
Ja’Marr Chase ‘Anytime Touchdown’ (-105)
Chase is making a strong case that he is the best wide receiver in the NFL in only his sophomore season. The former LSU standout has scored nine touchdowns over his last nine games. Burrow’s top target has hauled in 25 receptions for 417 yards and four touchdowns in three career games against the Chiefs. Chase has been dynamic in the playoffs, averaging 6.5 receptions per game, 85.5 receiving yards and recording three touchdowns in six postseason games. Knowing that the elite talent has scored 25 touchdowns in 36 career NFL games (69.4%), bettors need to invest in the star wide receiver’s ‘Anytime Touchdown’ market.
Travis Kelce ‘Anytime Touchdown’ (+100)
Kelce was dominant last week against the Jaguars, no matter who was playing quarterback for the Chiefs, grabbing a game-high 14 receptions for 98 yards and two touchdowns. The star tight end is a postseason star, averaging 86.8 receiving yards, while catching 14 touchdowns in 16 playoff games. The league’s best tight end has averaged 7.3 receptions, while adding four touchdowns in four AFC title games. At +100 odds, it’s worth betting on one of the best playoff performers in league history to find the end zone once again. Kelce’s 14 receiving touchdowns in the playoffs ranks third behind only Gronkowski (15) and Rice (22).
Isiah Pacheco Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Isiah Pacheco was a major factor in Kansas City’s divisional round victory over Jacksonville by rushing for 95 yards and a touchdown. The rookie tailback, who rushed for 66 yards and a touchdown in the Week 13 meeting with Cincinnati, has been assigned a projection of 47.5 rushing yards in the AFC championship game.
The former Rutgers standout has eclipsed this number in nine of his last 10 games thanks to averaging a solid 13.8 rushing attempts per game over that span. The rookie back has become stronger as the season has progressed, gaining 638 rushing yards since November while averaging an impressive 4.9 yards per rush since Week 9. A deeper dive reveals that nine running backs have surpassed this number against the Bengals this season. Bettors can combine those impressive stats with the strong likelihood that the Chiefs will attempt to establish the run in an attempt to reduce Mahomes’s workload.
PROP BETS
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals: Anytime Touchdown (-105)
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs: Anytime Touchdown (+100)
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs: Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
2022 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 43-36-1 ATS + Props +12.65 U
2021 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 33-27-1 ATS + Props +9.75 U
2021 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
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