Bengals-Bills AFC Divisional Round Odds, Lines, Spread and Best Bet

The third-seeded Bengals (12-4) face the second-seeded Bills (13-3) in a rematch of the game we didn’t get to see in Week 17.

This time, the Bills have home-field advantage at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park for Sunday’s AFC divisional round matchup.

Two of the hottest young quarterbacks in the game promise to make this a fun one with the game total set at 48.5 and the Bills favored by five at SI Sportsbook.

Both teams are coming in on lengthy win streaks. Josh Allen and the Bills have won eight in a row, while Joe Burrow and the Bengals have won nine. Both teams were favored last weekend, and both teams failed to cover the spread.

Both teams have a top-six offense and a top-six defense.

Allen has been excellent this year, despite recent struggles with interceptions. His 4,283 regular-season passing yards ranked seventh and his 762 rushing yards ranked third among quarterbacks and he led this offense to an average 28.4 points per game this year – second only to the Chiefs.

Wide receivers Stefon Diggs’s 1,423 regular-season receiving yards ranked fourth in the league. Diggs racked up 114 yards vs. Miami last week, while fellow wide receiver Gabe Davis racked up 113 of his own and also scored a touchdown.

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Buffalo’s running back room is capable with Devin Singletary, James Cook and Nyheim Hines able to do enough to keep defenses guessing. The Bills converted a league-leading 50.3% of third-downs this season.

Defensively, the Bills ranked as the second-best unit in the league for the regular season. However, across the last seven games of the season they allowed 220 passing yards per game. In last week’s wild card matchup, they allowed only 189 vs. third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson and only 231 total yards to the Dolphins. They also had a pair of interceptions as they squeaked by the Dolphins, 34-31, despite uncharacteristically allowing 75% conversion on third downs.

The Bengals aim to repeat as AFC champions and the pathway will not be easy, however, perhaps no one is more cool under pressure than Burrow. Burrow has not lost since Week 8, and his 35 passing touchdowns tied Allen and were behind only Patrick Mahomes. Burrow’s 4,475 regular-season passing yards ranked fifth at the position, and he boasts arguably the most talented wide-receiver trio in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.Chase and Higgins both logged more than 1,000 yards this season, while Boyd added another 762.

Running back Joe Mixon leads a steady run game for the Bengals’ offense, which ranked sixth overall in points during the regular season. Unfortunately for the Bengals it looks like they will be without left tackle Jonah Williams for this one, which could spell trouble for Joe Burrow’s ability to stay upright. Burrow took the sixth-most sacks during the regular season. However, it’s worth noting that Allen took seven sacks in last week’s wild card game alone versus the Dolphins.

Cincinnati’s defense has been strong vs. the run and the pass, allowing only 20.1 points per game this year – the sixth-best mark in the league.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills AFC Divisional Round Odds

Spread: Cincinnati +5 (-110) | Buffalo -5 (-110)
Moneyline: CIN (+188) | BUF (-225)
Total: 48.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Jan. 22, 2023 | 3 p.m. ET | CBS

Bengals Straight-Up Record: 13-4
Bengals Against The Spread Record: 12-5

Bills Straight-Up Record: 14-3
Bills Against The Spread Record: 8-8-1

Bet on Bengals-Bills at SI Sportsbook

Odds and Betting Insight

Cincinnati is 9-3 against the spread (ATS) after a win, while Buffalo is 6-7 ATS after a win. The Bengals are 1-0 ATS and 1-1 straight-up (SU) as a road underdog, while Buffalo is 3-5 ATS and 7-1 SU as home favorite.

Games have gone over only seven times this year for both teams.

Notice a pattern here? If you’re giving me five points for the Bengals, I’m taking them. These teams are closely matched and this could be the game of the weekend. Yes, the Bills probably win, but after they only squeaked by the Dolphins and a third-string quarterback, give me the points and the talented Burrow looking to repeat as AFC champions all day long. We may even get an upset.