Heading into Week 18, the Vikings have been eliminated from being the number one seed in the NFC after their loss to Green Bay. However, they can still finish second in their conference with a win and a 49ers loss.
The Bears have the second-worst record in football while riding a nine-game losing streak. With another loss and a Texans victory, Chicago would have the top selection in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Three teams (CHI – 434, MIN – 414, and DET – 411) in the NFC North rank in the bottom four in the league in points allowed. The Vikings gave up 115 points (27.8% of their season total) in their last three losses to Dallas, Detroit, and Green Bay. Minnesota ranks poorly vs. the run (441/1,975/18 – 4.5 yards per carry) while also showing risk defending quarterbacks (300 passing yards or more to nine offenses) and wide receivers (nine teams gained more than 200 yards). Since Week 10, the Vikings have allowed 243 points (30.4 per game). In addition, Minnesota lost the time of possession battle in nine of their last 11 matchups. In Week 5, they held Chicago to 22 points.
Offensively, there have been too many games (9) where the Vikings have rushed for fewer than 100 yards. They have 16 rushing scores while gaining 4.2 yards per carry. Minnesota ranks highly in pass attempts (639 – 39.9 per game), with improvement in throwing the ball over their past four matchups (425/2, 460/4, 299/3, and 262/2). Their offensive line breaks down on many plays in pass protection (47 sacks), leading to a shorter passing window for Kirk Cousins (7.0 yards per pass attempt).
Chicago has one of the league’s weakest wide receiving corps (113/1,497/9), and they average only 21.9 passes. As a result, their only chance of winning comes on the legs of Justin Fields (160/1,143/8) and a dominant overall run game (536/2,897/17 – 5.4 yards per rush). The Bears passed for fewer than 200 yards in 14 contests.
The Bears allowed 30 rushes or more in seven consecutive contests, leading to 27 touchdowns and eight field goals over 76 possessions. Offenses gained 2,533 rushing yards on 504 carries with 29 scores. Quarterbacks have nine touchdowns with some success on the ground (98/371). Chicago continues to have a weak pass rush (20 sacks), helping four teams to pass for more than 300 yards. Their rankings against the pass have been supported by low attempts (28 per game).
Vikings vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Game Info
Moneyline: Vikings (-188) | Bears (+155)
Spread: MIN -3.5 (-110) | CHI +3.5 (-110)
Total: 45.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Game Info: Sunday, January 8th, 2023 | 1:00 p.m. ET | FOX
Vikings Straight-Up Record: 12-4
Vikings Against the Spread Record: 6-9-1
Bears Straight-Up Record: 3-13
Bears Against the Spread Record: 5-10-1
Bet on Vikings-Bears on SI Sportsbook
Odds and Betting Insights
In Minnesota’s four losses, they have outscored by 89 points. The Vikings have a 6-3 record since Week 9, but all their wins have been by seven points or fewer. Chicago may decide to rest Fields, inviting a potential line more in favor of Minnesota later in the week. This matchup points to the Vikings bouncing back with a season-ending win. The Bears need to have the talent at wide receiver to take advantage of Minnesota’s weakness in the secondary.
- Chicago failed to cover the spread in seven of their past nine losses. They are 3-4-1 vs. the betting line at home.
- The game total has gone over in eight of their past 10 matchups.
- Minnesota has four consecutive losses against the spread (2-4-1 on the road).
- The over has been the winning side of the game total in six straight games (10-3 over the past 13 matchups).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call the National Council for Problem Gambling 1-800-522-4700.
