After an inspiring start to the season after 11 games (8-3), Miami buckled over a challenging three-game road trip (0-3 vs. 49ers, Chargers, and Bills). Last week, Tua Tagovailoa threw three costly interceptions in the second half vs. the Packers, putting them on the hot seat for a postseason berth if they lose to New England. Tagovailoa is 4-0 in his career against the Patriots while never losing to the Jets in three starts. If the Dolphins come up short against New England and beat New York, they’ll need Buffalo to defeat the Patriots in Week 18.
The Patriots come off two devastating losses, leaving New England fans clamoring for coaching and quarterback changes. Their franchise has been the best in the NFL since the turn of the century. Unfortunately, Patriots fans don’t see that success in the league can turn on a dime with a mediocre quarterback and a downgrade in the coaching staff. New England controls their playoff destiny by defeating Miami and Buffalo. The Patriots are 1-4 over the past five matchups.
The Dolphins rely on their two stud wide receivers (Tyreek Hill – 113/1,632/7 and Jaylen Waddle – 67/1,260/8) while being up and down running the ball (330/1,438/12). Miami’s defense allowed 114 points over their past four matchups (28.5 per game), with quarterbacks tossing eight touchdowns. The Dolphins played better vs. the run in four of their past five matchups (2.6, 3.6, 3.6, and 3.2 yards per rush). Miami has 19 sacks over the last six weeks.
New England’s defense regressed in four of their past five games (33, 24, 30, and 22 points allowed) while losing the time of possession in each contest (36:17, 38:08, 33:31, 33:16, and 36:48 minutes). This bend, don’t break style works vs. weaker opponents. The Patriots’ defense helped its cause by scoring five times with one punt return for a touchdown. The bottom line with their offense is the lack of explosive players with up-and-down play by their offensive line (25 sacks in their five worst games). In addition, New England ends too many drives with field goals or turnovers.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds
Moneyline: Dolphins (+120) | Patriots (-143)
Spread: MIA +2.5 (-110) | NE -2.5 (-110)
Total: 42.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Game Info: Sunday, January 1st, 2023 | 1:00 p.m. ET | CBS
Dolphins Straight-Up Record: 8-7
Dolphins Against The Spread Record: 7-8
Patriots Straight-Up Record: 7-8
Patriots Against The Spread Record: 7-7-1
Bet on Dolphins-Patriots at SI Sportsbook
Odds and Betting Insights
New England is 2-6 when receiving points this year, including four straight losses as an underdog. They are 3-4 at home straight up and against the spread. The total landed on the under in six of their past eight matchups, with four consecutive wins on the under at home. The Patriots lost 20-7 in Miami in Week 1. The under has come in five straight games for New England after an outright loss in their previous contest.
There’s been early line movement since it was announced that Tagovailoa was in concussion protocol. The line flipped to making the Pats favorites after opening as 1.5-point underdogs.
The weather forecast is between 48 and 58 on Sunday in Foxborough, with a reasonable chance of rain. This forecast should be considered a win for Dolphin fans.
The Patriots lack chemistry this season while making too many out-of-character turnovers and mistakes late in games. For New England to win, their defense must lead the way with a stellar performance, highlighted by their pass rush (50 sacks). Tagovailoa hasn’t played well over the past month (competition rate – 52.6), with six touchdowns and five interceptions. I expect Bill Belichick to find a way to keep the Patriots’ playoff hopes alive for at least one more week.
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