The clocks move back for Daylight Savings on Sunday but the NFL continues to move forward. Though the sun will start shining less, we are shedding some light on the NFL action for Week 9 as we hit the midway point of the 2022 NFL season.
Each week, Sports Illustrated’s writers gives their best bet against the spread (ATS) to help our readers get a jumpstart on making their own picks for SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 contest. There’s been a handful of winners that took home the weekly grand prize of $10,000, but 12 players came up one pick short in Week 8.
Playing in the Perfect 10 is simple, free and fast. Head over to SI Sportsbook, pick the winners from the 10-game slate and hit submit. The game is free to enter and there’s $10,000 in total prizes every single week.
There’s six home underdogs on the Perfect 10 slate for Week 9 with the biggest being the Jets (+12.5) as the powerhouse Bills visit the Meadowlands. The Bears, Commanders, Lions, Falcons and Jaguars are also home underdogs.
As for the four home favorites, the Bengals (-8.5) are the biggest of the bunch as they host the Panthers. The Buccaneers, Cardinals and Patriots are also laying points at home.
Let’s get into the best bets for Week 9!
Jimmy Traina: Commanders +3.5
I’m not sold on the Vikings yet, especially their defense, which ranks 28th in total yardage. In its last three games, Minnesota held on to beat the Bears and Cardinals and defeated the Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa. Taylor Heinicke is better than Carson Wentz and it’s showing on the field with the Commanders playing much better in their past two games. I love getting the extra half-point at home with the 3.5-point spread. Plus, the Washington crowd and players should be fired up since it appears the end is near for Daniel Snyder.
Conor Orr: Panthers +8.5
We’ve seen how difficult it is for the Bengals to put consistent drives together without Ja’Marr Chase. We’ve also seen how completely feisty this Panthers team is despite its grim prospects. While it may not be an outright win, we could see Carolina coming within the 8.5 points to take this game to an interesting place. The Bengals, minus the white hot glow they exuded down the stretch last season, are simply finding their way.
Michael Fabiano: Bills -12.5
The Bills beat the Packers at home last week, but Josh Allen didn’t look sharp with a pair of interceptions. I like Allen to be motivated by that less than stellar performance and take it out on Gang Green, who are 1-3 ATS in their last four games against Buffalo. The Jets’ offense also looked a bit lost last week without Breece Hall and putting the game in Zach Wilson’s hands could mean a few turnovers for the Bills on the defensive side. Allen, who is 5-2 against the Jets, should have a nice day.
Jennifer Piacenti: Seahawks +2.5
When will we give Geno Smith and the Seahawks the credit they deserve? Not only have the Seahawks covered 62.5% of their games this season compared to the Cardinals’ 50%, Seattle has won four of six times as an underdog. Oh, and let’s not ignore the obvious: The Seahawks (5-3) are in first in the NFC West, while the Cardinals (3-5) are in last. Kyler Murray is great for my fantasy team but he’s tough to bet on for a win. I’ll happily take Seattle plus the points.
Frankie Taddeo: Patriots -5.5
New England is 4-1 ATS over its last five games and faces a Colts club it has beaten in eight of the last nine meetings. Colts rookie quarterback Sam Ehlinger making his second career start and aims to snap a two-game straight-up (SU) and ATS losing skid on the road in Foxboro. Bettors should look at two important factors: the history of Bill Belichick versus rookie quarterbacks, and that the Colts have turned the ball over the most times (16) of any team this season. That’s a recipe for not only a Patriots’ win but also a cover for the fifth time in the last six games.
Bill Enright: Patriots -5.5
Digest all that excellent information and against the spread trends that Frank mentioned above and add in some other game factoids:
- Star running back Jonathan Taylor is expected to miss the game for the Colts.
- The Colts are 30th in points per game (16), while the Patriots average 22.
- The Patriots’ defense ranks second in forced turnovers per game.
- The Colts are 31st in turnover margin.
Pack all that info up and combine it with Frank’s point about Belichick taking on rookie quarterbacks and inept offenses and carry it right to your betting ticket when you punch in the Patriots laying the 5.5 points.
Kyle Wood: Seahawks +2.5
The Cardinals struggle mightily at home. They went 3-5 at State Farm Stadium in 2021 and are off to a 1-3 start this season. That lone win came against the Saints on Thursday Night Football two weeks ago, a game in which Arizona scored two defensive touchdowns and still won by one possession. Seattle has done well on the road with a 2-2 record against the spread and two straight-up wins as an underdog. That’s not even getting to the fact that the Seahawks downed the Cardinals, 19-9, just a few weeks ago and held Kyler Murray out of the end zone That kickstarted a three-game win streak for Seattle, which it rides into Arizona in search of a third straight win over its NFC West foe. Getting a couple points is just added insurance for Geno Smith and Co.
Craig Ellenport: Bengals -8.5
The Panthers played tough last week and would have won at Atlanta if not for a stupid penalty that led to a missed extra point. Still, Carolina is playing its third road game in the last four weeks and just allowed Marcus Mariota to throw three touchdown passes. Joe Burrow and the Bengals pitched a clunker in Cleveland on Monday night but they are much better at home. After the season-opening loss to the Steelers, they’ve won their other two home games by 12 (vs. the Dolphins) and 15 (vs. Falcons). Even without Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals will bounce back here and score enough for the cover.
Matt Ehalt: Packers -3.5
The Packers actually played one of their best games of late in the loss to the Bills. The offense looked more functional—giving Aaron Jones touches is a good thing—and they get a Lions defense that couldn’t stop you and your friends during your pickup game the day after Thanksgiving. Detroit’s offense stalls in the second half and it is now without T.J. Hockenson. The Packers get back on track in Detroit, while the Lions’ woes continue.
Matt De Lima: Jets +12.5
The Jets have covered in four of their last five games and home divisional underdogs are 9-5 against the spread this year. I imagine the Bills will win this comfortably with Zach Wilson and the Jets doing enough in garbage time to cover.
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