Yankees-Astros ALCS Game 2 Odds, Lines, Bets

The American League Championship Series continues Thursday night with Game 2 as Framber Valdez and the Astros host Luis Severino and the Yankees at Minute Maid Park in Houston. Houston leads the series 1-0 after a dominant performance by Justin Verlander, who struck out 11 Yankees and surrendered only a single home run to Harrison Bader on the way to a 4-2 victory for Houston.

The Astros received homers from Yuli Gurriel, Chas McCormick and Jeremy Pena and scored three runs off of the Yankees’ bullpen. The Yankees managed just five hits and struck out 17 times while going 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position.

Bet on Yankees-Astros ALCS Game 2 at SI Sportsbook

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Yankees-Astros ALCS Game 2 Odds

Moneyline: Yankees (+120) | Astros (-145)
Run line: Yankees +1.5 (-175)| Astros -1.5 (+145)
Total: 7 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)

The Astros are favored again behind Valdez, who set an MLB record this season for consecutive quality starts (25). Valdez pitched to a 2.82 ERA and a 17-6 record in the regular season, though he ended the season a little shaky. In his only postseason start, Valdez allowed two runs and four hits versus the Mariners and didn’t look entirely sharp. After six days of rest, the Astros hope Valdez is in top form like Verlander on Wednesday. The Yankees have not been particularly successful versus Valdez, as he is a ground-ball pitcher- inducing 22.5% more ground balls than the average pitcher- and the Yankees thrive on extra-base hits.

Severino has been solid for the Yankees with a 7-3 record and 3.18 ERA. In his only postseason start, Severino was also a little shaky as the Guardians compiled three runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings. Only two Astros struck out Wednesday night and Severino has only an 18.4% strikeout rate versus the Astros’ roster.

Both Severino and Valdez allow a lot of hard contact, and that could lead to trouble quickly if either pitcher isn’t entirely on his game. Valdez surrendered only 11 total home runs this season (0.49 per nine innings), while Severino surrendered 1.24 per nine innings. That advantage goes slightly to the Astros.

The Yankees’ offense Wednesday came via two home runs. That may not be enough to beat this rested Astros team with arguably the deepest pitching in the postseason. The Yankees’ bullpen was their downfall in Game 1 and they need Severino to go as deep as possible to have their best chance for a victory.

I hate to sound like a broken record but I’m taking the home team once again, while also leaning toward the under.

As for player props, I will take Jose Altuve to go hitless at +145 odds. Maybe this will reverse-jinx him, but the veteran slugger is in a mighty slump and I like the plus-money payout.