Two of the NFL’s worst offensive teams will look to get on track on Thursday Night Football when Justin Fields and the Bears host Carson Wentz and the Commanders.
Wentz, who sports a winning record of 45-40-1 as a starter, has struggled in recent seasons. Dating back to the start of the 2020 season, the veteran signal-caller is just 13-20-1 (.394) as a member of the Eagles, Colts and Commanders. The former second overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft is one of the biggest moon shots in MVP future odds at SI Sportsbook at +15000 odds.
While Wentz has thrown for the fifth-most yards (1,390) and touchdowns (10), he also has tossed the second-most interceptions (six). Despite solid statistical production, turnovers have limited Washington to 18 points per game (26th).
Wentz’s lack of ball security can also be attributed to his lack of protection as he’s been sacked the second-most (20) times of any quarterback this season.
The Commanders, who have lost four straight games, will face a Bears squad which has lost three of its last four games. Chicago, which ranks 27th in the league in scoring (17.2 points per game), needs to open up the playbook.
For the second consecutive week, the Thursday night matchup finds two struggling clubs both in the standings as well as from a betting perspective. The Commanders are a dismal 0-4 against the spread (ATS) over their last four games, while the Bears are 2-5-1 ATS over their last eight home games at Soldier Field.
Bet on Commanders-Bears at SI Sportsbook
- Spread: Washington +1.5 (-118) | Chicago -1.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: WSH (+100) | CHI (-118)
- Total: 37.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
- Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: WSH 34% | CHI 66%
- Game Info: Oct. 13, 2022 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
The line has flipped since opening with Washington as a one-point road favorite over the Bears at SI Sportsbook to Chicago now installed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The game total, which opened at 39.5, has dropped two full points to 37.5.
Fields has failed to live up to expectations this season guiding the Bears to the worst passing offense in the league. Chicago, which ranks 32nd in passing (116.6 yards per game), has only attempted 88 passes this season. To put this futility in perspective, 21 quarterbacks have more completions than Fields does attempts.
The Commanders head on the road on a short week looking to rebound from a crushing home loss to the Titans in Week 5. Wentz, who passed for 359 yards and two touchdowns, threw his sixth interception at the worst possible time. Facing third-and-goal from the Titans’ three-yard line with five seconds remaining, Wentz forced the ball to J.D. McKissic but was intercepted by a diving David Long Jr.
Chicago is 0-3 on the road to start the season but will try to rebound at home, where it won in Week 1 versus the 49ers and Week 3 against the Texans.
Dating back to last season, bettors have been burned by both of these teams as the clubs have combined for an abysmal 7-11-2 ATS (38.9%) mark over their last 20 games. Through five weeks, the under is 11-5 (68.8%) in nationally televised prime-time games. Hitting at a 68.8% clip, combined with these two offensively challenged clubs, makes the under simply too easy to back.
Instead, we will invest in the team who plays more inspired at home against a team that is 0-4 straight-up (SU) and ATS since the season opener.
BET: Bears Moneyline (-118)
Trends:
- Washington is 0-4 ATS over its last four games
- Washington is 1-3-1 ATS over its last five road games
- Chicago is 2-5-1 ATS over its last eight home games
- The over is 5-1 in the last six matchups between these NFC foes
- The Commanders are 5-1 SU and ATS over the last six games versus Chicago
***
2022 SI Betting Thursday Night Football: 1-3-1 ATS & Props 9-9 +1.15 Units
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 9-8 ATS & Props 16-12 +5.75 Units
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS & Prop Wagers +4.00 Units
2021 SI Betting NFL Overall YTD: 53-44-1 ATS & Props +14.22 Units
2020 SI Betting NFL: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting’s Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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