I have been a running back truther for as long as I can remember playing fantasy football. My first-ever draft pick came back in 1998 when I took Terrell Davis. I later traded for then-rookie Fred Taylor. Can you say championship?
Since then, I’ve focused my early-round picks on runners. From Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, and LaDainian Tomlinson in the past to the likes of Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall in more recent years, getting a few stud runners was always at the forefront of my fantasy roster build.
So, when the “Zero RB Strategy” was introduced by Shawn Siegeleback in 2013, I scoffed. This philosophy is based on completely avoiding running backs in the first five rounds. Instead, fantasy fans load up on wide receivers, a tight end, and a quarterback before turning their attention to the running back position. To me, it made zero sense. After all, backs have long been the lifeblood of fantasy football!
Why the hell would I avoid that?
In my opinion, the Zero RB strategy required a lot of luck. You had to hope at least a few of the backs you drafted after the first five rounds panned out, and many times those lottery tickets ended up in the waiver wire garbage. If you didn’t land a breakout or sleeper runner on the wire either, well, your backfield was likely trash. In this scenario, a bad backfield was a fantasy death sentence.
Then, the 2022 season happened.
A few of the running backs we’ve leaned on for years, like Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, and Leonard Fournette (to name a few), saw their totals decline at some level. The top overall pick, Jonathan Taylor, finished as the RB32, making it the third straight year the consensus top pick was a runner who failed to meet expectations. We also saw a further increase in the number of backfield committees emerge around the league.
At the same time, wide receivers thrived.
Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb were among the young wideouts who were rising up. A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith (to name a few) also thrived for fantasy fans. And while the position isn’t completely clear of injuries (Cooper Kupp), it’s far less likely a receiver will suffer a long-term ailment compared to a running back. That’s part of the reason we are seeing so many runners holding out over current contractual issues while No. 2 and 3 wide receivers are getting their bags.
This has been the perfect storm of sorts, and it’s created a huge shift in the importance of wideouts. In the high-stakes world of the NFFC, where some of the best fantasy players play for oodles of dough, eight of the top 12 overall picks are wideouts. What’s more, 17 of the first 36 picks (top three rounds) are receivers. It’s a different world, folks.
When we include these factors, plus the emergence of the top-tier quarterbacks and tight ends as top-50 overall choices, we’re now seeing running backs getting pushed down draft boards. It’s created a scenario where (I can’t believe I’m saying this), the Zero RB Strategy is a more viable approach. In fact, I have even used it in the last two years.
Do I use this all the time? No. I prefer an altered version where I draft three wideouts in the first four rounds. The other two picks are likely running backs. I’ve also used the “Hero RB” philosophy, which has managers grab a running back in Round 1 and then go with wide receivers in each of the next three rounds. It all depends on where you’re drafting and the flow of the draft, but I’ve pushed runners down in my top 200 regardless.
That doesn’t mean I’m avoiding the position altogether, of course. Besides CMC, I’d love to get Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall or Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round this yaer. But when you look at the ADP data, there are more elite runners on the board later in drafts.
Right now, you can draft productive running backs like Kamara, Rhamondre Stevenson, James Conner and D’Andre Swift outside of the top 50. Breakout/sleeper runners, who used to go in the top 50 when managers would reach at the position, are also on the board much later. This season, that list includes the likes of Zamir White, Jonathon Brooks and Zack Moss, who are all available outside the top 80 based on the current ADP data at the NFFC. Heck, you can even get Nick Chubb outside of the top 90. I know he’s coming off a gruesome knee injury, but he’d have been picked much higher in past years.
This strategy isn’t for everyone. Heck, I’ve even said I don’t follow it to a tee. It might be my long love affair with running backs that keeps me from avoiding the position with each of my first five picks. With that said, I am far more likely to have three and maybe four wide receivers on my roster with my first five picks than I would have five years ago.
Don’t be afraid to make that switch to your draft strategies either. Offenses around the NFL have evolved, and fantasy managers should follow. I did. Much like Jedi master Yoda told Luke Skywalker in The Empire Strikes Back, “you must unlearn what you have learned.”
Greatness is difficult to achieve, and it can be even more difficult to duplicate. That’s why I always preach to fantasy football managers, new and old, to “beware the magical season" when preparing for drafts.
The NFL has had more than its share of players who failed to make good after a "magical" season. Remember Braylon Edwards, who looked like a fantasy star when he posted 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns for the Browns in 2007? He went on to score 15 more touchdowns ... the rest of his career.
A more recent example is Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL in rushing yards and was the RB3 with the Raiders in 2022. Unfortunately, his stats took a nosedive last season. Jacobs rushed for 848 fewer yards and averaged 5.2 fewer fantasy points, finishing just 28th among fantasy runners.
There are countless other examples too, some of which include former gridiron greats. Heck, Dan Marino threw for almost 1,000 fewer passing yards and 18 fewer touchdowns (1985) following what was the best statistical campaign of his Hall-of-Fame career in 1984. Even Marino isn't exempt!
The point here is one monster season doesn't guarantee another, even if an elite athlete recorded it. So, which players who exceeded expectations last season might be in line for a decline in their statistical success in 2024?
Here's a list of 20 players, some of whom are elite fantasy players, who will still likely struggle to produce the same statistics from a season ago.
Josh Allen’s 15 rushing touchdowns: Allen and Jalen Hurts both rushed for 15 scores a season ago, which is the most by a quarterback in league history. What’s more, there’s only been six quarterbacks to rush for at least 10 touchdowns in a single season in the Super Bowl era. That list includes Allen, Hurts (2), Cam Newton (2), Kyler Murray, Kordell Stewart and Daunte Culpepper. Allen had never rushed for more than nine touchdowns in a single season before this past season, so I expect that 15-score total to decline.
Jalen Hurts’ 15 rushing touchdowns: Hurts is in the same boat as Allen, as he’ll struggle to hit the 15-rushing touchdown total again. The good news, though, is Hurts hit double digits in that category each of his last three seasons. Still, I’m more comfortable with a 10-TD projection, especially with fantasy superstar running back Saquon Barkley in the backfield.
Justin Herbert’s 35.1 pass attempts per game: The Los Angeles Chargers ranked seventh in pass percentage last season under Kellen Moore, and Herbert averaged 35.1 pass attempts in 13 games. New offensive coordinator Greg Roman has served in that role for three different teams in 10 years at the NFL level. During that time, the most pass attempts one of his quarterbacks has averaged was Lamar Jackson (31.8 in 2021). He is the lone QB to average more than 30 pass attempts per game under Roman. That’s bad news for Herbert, who will be hard-pressed to duplicate his 35.1 attempts.
Matthew Stafford’s late-season run: Stafford finished last year as the QB15, averaging 16.2 points per game. It was a tale of two seasons, however, as Stafford averaged 251.1 passing yards, 13.5 fantasy points and scored nine touchdowns in his first nine games. Over his final six starts, he averaged 284.1 passing yards, 20.3 points and threw 15 touchdowns. In that span, Stafford scored at least 18.5 points in five straight games. He had strung together five straight such performances just once before in his career (2013). I wouldn’t expect the veteran to duplicate such a productive span of games again.
Breece Hall’s 95 targets and 76 receptions: Hall finished last season as the RB2, due in part to a serious statistical run in the second half that saw him emerge as a huge option in the Jets pass attack. In his first eight games, Hall averaged 3.9 targets and 2.9 catches. He went off in his final 10 games, however, averaging a stout 6.8 targets and 5.7 receptions.
That rise in targets and catches came in large part because of the quarterbacks the Jets were using. Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle started a combined five games (played in eight), and they targeted Hall a ton out of the backfield. The duo combined to target running backs on nearly 30 percent of their pass attempts! By comparison, Aaron Rodgers targeted his runners as receivers in just 20.7% of his passes in his last season in Green Bay.
Raheem Mostert’s 21 touchdowns: Mostert came out of nowhere to score 21 times last season. He had scored just 19 touchdowns in his previous eight years … combined! Those touchdowns made up for 47 percent of his 267.7 points, so regression is coming. Heck, even if Mostert scores eight to 10 touchdowns in 2024, I’d consider that a major win as a fantasy manager.
Aaron Jones’ late-season touches: Jones scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in all but three of his first eight games of last season. In that time, he averaged 12.8 touches, 3.8 yards per rush, and 10.9 points. Over his final three regular-season games, however, he averaged a robust 23.3 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 15.9 fantasy points. That is a massive increase for the veteran runner.
If we also include his two playoff games, Jones averaged 22.6 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 19.4 points in his final five contests. He also rushed for 100-plus yards in every game. Before this “magical” stretch, Jones had never rushed for 100-plus yards in more than two consecutive games! So, as good as he was in this stretch, it’s likely to be an outlier.
Gus Edwards’ 13 rushing touchdowns: Edwards was a red-zone machine last season, scoring 13 touchdowns on the ground. He had rushed for 13 touchdowns in his previous four years … combined! So, while he will be in the run-based offense of new coordinator Greg Roman in Los Angeles, Edwards will have competition for touches in the form of J.K. Dobbins and rookie Kimani Vidal. Six to eight touchdowns might be more attainable.
Puka Nacua’s 1,575 receiving yards: Nacua was a stat monster last season, finishing fourth in fantasy points among wideouts. He did it, in large part, based on his rookie-record 1,575 receiving yards. That begs the question … what if Cooper Kupp stays healthy for most of this season?
After all, Nacua averaged 78.7 yards in the 12 games he played with Kupp last season. That would be around 1,338 yards over a full season. In the five games Nacua played without Kupp, he averaged 108.4 yards. That would project to over 1,840 yards. So, anyone who is drafting Nacua in the first round and expecting a duplication of his 2023 yardage totals has to be doing so with the thought Kupp is going to miss a portion of the season. If not, Nacua might end up being less productive in terms of real and fantasy football.
Stefon Diggs 160 targets: Diggs averaged 9.4 targets per game last season and was sixth in targets among wideouts. It was the fourth straight year he had seen at least 154 targets. That trend is unlikely to continue though, as he now joins a crowded receiver’s room with Nico Collins, Tank Dell and others. With Collins averaging 7.3 targets per game and Dell at just under seven, it’s difficult to see Diggs getting over nine per game, not to mention 160 targets. Instead, I’d project him for closer to 130-140 unless injuries occur.
Keenan Allen’s 1,249 receiving yards: Some might have forgotten because he was injured late in the season, but Allen was an elite fantasy wideout in his first 13 games. That won’t be the case this season, though. With his move to the Bears, he’ll have to share targets with DJ Moore, rookie Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. Also, keep this in mind … the Bears have had only nine wide receivers post 1,000-plus yards in the Super Bowl era. What’s more, the offense has produced multiple 1,000-yard WRs in the same season twice (1995, 2013).
Courtland Sutton’s 85.6% catchable target rate: Sutton finished as the WR35 last year, which came even though he scored 10 touchdowns and was third among wideouts (min. 75 targets) in catchable target rate. That came because of Russell Wilson, who ranked third in adjusted completion percentage among quarterbacks with at least 10 games played. That stat factors in drops, spikes, throwaways, hits as the ball is thrown and batted balls, per Fantasy Points Data. With a rookie in Bo Nix or Zach Wilson (QB21 in ADJ CMP%), Sutton will likely see far fewer accurate passes in the Broncos offense.
Rashee Rice late-season target share: Rice was one of the top wide receivers in fantasy football in the second half of last season, ranking WR8 based on points over the final eight weeks. In that time, he saw 23.9% of the wide receiver targets in Kansas City, compared to a 12.6% share in his first 10 contests. The Chiefs added Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy in the offseason, however, which will no doubt put a dent into Rice’s share. He is also expected to be suspended for off-field issues, decreasing his value further.
DeAndre Hopkins’ 137 targets: Hopkins has long been a fantasy star, but he’s started to lose a little of his sparkle. He posted an average of 13.2 fantasy points per game last year, which is his lowest total since his rookie campaign, and it took him 137 targets to do it. With the addition of Calvin Ridley, who saw 136 targets last season, not to mention Tyler Boyd, who knows the offense of new head coach Brian Callahan, and Nuk’s target share is in serious danger of dropping even further as he enters his age-33 campaign.
Jordan Addison’s 10 receiving touchdowns: Addison finished a solid WR23 as a rookie, mostly on the strength of his 10 touchdown catches. The problem is seven of those scores came with Kirk Cousins throwing him the football. In the nine games without him, Addison found the end zone just three times. Who knows, maybe journeyman San Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy will exceed expectations, but 10 scores for Addison seems unlikely.
Adam Thielen’s 231 PPR fantasy points: Thielen was a star in the first half of last season, ranking eighth in fantasy points among wideouts while averaging 17.8 points. His stats went south the rest of the season, however, as Thielen was the WR43 in his final eight games with an average of 8.9 points. With the additions of Dionte Johnson and Xavier Legette, Thielen will struggle to hit even the 200-point mark during his age-34 campaign.
Evan Engram’s 963 receiving yards: Engram is coming off a career season that saw him put up 963 yards, which is 197 more yards than his previous high (2022). Fantasy managers should keep in mind, however, he was more effective when Christian Kirk was out. In five games without Kirk, Engram averaged a robust 71.4 yards. Compare that to the 50.5 yards he averaged when Kirk was active, and it’s obvious Engram’s ceiling was affected. Also, the Jaguars added Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. in the offseason.
David Njoku’s 882 receiving yards: Njoku was a fantasy star last season, finishing sixth among tight ends in total fantasy points. He was also sixth in yards at the position. Where I’m concerned is in his splits with and without Deshaun Watson. When Joe Flacco was in place of an injured Watson, Njoku averaged 78 yards per game. With Watson under center, that total shrunk to a modest 38.3 yards. The Browns also added wideout Jerry Jeudy in the offseason, so Njoku could be hard-pressed to post more than 650 yards.
Cole Kmet’s touchdown market share: Kmet was a popular target for Justin Fields in the red zone last season, posting a 31.6% receiving touchdown market share (min. 75 targets) per Fantasy Points Data. That was second best behind only Sam LaPorta. Unfortunately, that percentage seems destined to fall with the trio of Moore, Allen, and Odunze at wide receiver, not to mention the addition of veteran tight end Gerald Everett, in 2024.
Jonnu Smith’s 70 targets: There was a time last season when Smith was a startable asset in fantasy leagues, even outscoring his former teammate, Kyle Pitts. Unfortunately, his move to Miami will not benefit him in the stat sheets. Since coach Mike McDaniel took over the offense, his tight ends have averaged a league-low 2.2 fantasy points per game. Their tight ends also ranked dead last in targets, receptions and yards, and they’re tied for the second-fewest touchdowns scored. That’s bad news for Smith’s fantasy appeal.
Success in fantasy drafts is all about projecting which players are on the verge of a big season, and knowing who might take a step back in the numbers. It’s those players, who have been labeled as “busts” in the past, who can be the most detrimental to a fantasy manager’s chances at winning a title.
That might not be truer at a position than wide receiver.
The reason is simple: wideouts have emerged as the single most important position in all fantasy football. That means missing out on a high-end receiver can be tough to overcome. Case in point … fantasy managers who whiffed on Cooper Kupp last season probably had some major issues at the position, unless they picked up his teammate, Puka Nacua.
Most folks probably weren’t so fortunate, however.
With that in mind, here are eight receivers who will be high draft picks or are big names who could struggle to produce as prominent starters.
1. Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
I had Adams listed as a player to beware last season, and he went on to post decreased totals in almost every statistical category. He still finished in the top 10 in points among wideouts, but he was wildly inconsistent. Adams scored fewer than 13 points in nine games, including five with single digits.
The Raiders don’t have an attractive quarterback situation with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew and the team drafted tight end Brock Bowers in the first round. That could affect Adams’ target share, at least to some degree. So, for those thinking Adams could return to elite fantasy status or that he’ll be more consistent, you might want to think again.
2. Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
Diggs is coming off a disappointing second half of last season, which resulted in him averaging just 16.1 points per game. That was his lowest total with the Bills. Now in Houston, he joins a super-talented core of receivers that includes Nico Collins, who broke out last season, and Tank Dell, who was on his way to busting out before getting hurt. The team also boasts Noah Brown, Dalton Schultz and a new running back in Joe Mixon. Diggs will be hard-pressed to see anywhere near the target share he enjoyed in Buffalo. Unless injuries occur on the roster, Diggs can’t be trusted to retain his previously elite status.
3. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
I know, listing Kupp as a bust candidate after he was a bust last season is low-hanging fruit. And, honestly, part of me wants to put Nacua in the article. After all, we could be (and likely are) drafting him based on a magical, ceiling season in the stat sheets. But the truth is, Kupp has only played in 13 games in the last two years due to injuries, and he’s entering his age-31 season. That makes him a hard fade as a No. 1 wideout, and he’s even a risk as a No. 2.
4. Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans
Ridley was a top-20 fantasy wideout last year, but he was anything but reliable. He scored fewer than 12 points 10 times including nine where he scored single digits. Now in Tennessee, the veteran will be catching passes from a young quarterback in Will Levis and contending for targets with DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and Tyler Boyd. The Titans also have two good backs in Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, so Ridley could be hard-pressed to see high target totals consistently. To me, he’s only a No. 3 wideout.
5. Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears
Allen was putting up monster numbers last year, but injuries cost him what might have been a career-best campaign. However, an offseason trade to the Bears makes him a lot less attractive from a fantasy standpoint. Their offense is led by a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, and it’s loaded with talent that includes DJ Moore, rookie Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. That’s a lot of mouths to feed, making it unlikely that Allen will see 150-plus targets. If you do draft him, it should be as a No. 3 receiver.
6. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Lockett is coming off a down season that saw his reception, yardage, and touchdown totals decrease compared to 2022. What’s more, his 11.9 point-per-game average was his lowest since 2017. Entering his age-31 season (he’ll turn 32 in September), I see Lockett falling behind teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the pecking order. That idea is playing out in drafts, as JSN is going ahead of Lockett based on average draft position. With the statistical arrow pointing downward, he shouldn’t be picked as more than a No. 4 option in drafts.
7. Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Watson was considered a breakout player last year, but he went on to miss eight games due to injuries and was held to fewer than 12 points in all but two of the nine games he was active. His absence opened the door for teammates Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks to emerge into viable options for Jordan Love and fantasy managers. I’m not opposed to taking him in the later rounds as a No. 4 wideout, but I’m otherwise out on Watson.
8. Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
Thielen was one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football in the first half of last season, averaging 20.2 points in his first seven games. The wheels fell off after that, however, as he dropped to 8.9 points in his final 10 contests. Aside from that, Carolina traded for Diontae Johnson and drafted Xavier Legette, so Thielen will struggle to see such a high target share again. Entering his age-34 season, he isn’t worth more than a late-round selection.
With the calendar hitting the middle of June, we are quickly getting into the fantasy football draft season. To help build your strategies and give you a look into what your drafts might look like, I’ve done yet another of my one-man, 10-round mock drafts to help you determine which fantasy players might be picked where in your upcoming leagues.
This mock draft includes 12 teams and is based on a full PPR scoring system. Each team is required to start one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end and two flex starters (non-super flex).
No kickers or D/STs were required in this mock.
Each team went into the draft with a different strategy in the first five rounds.
1.1. Team 1: Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers 1.2. Team 2: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys 1.3. Team 3: Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins 1.4. Team 4: Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings 1.5. Team 5: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions 1.6. Team 6: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals 1.7. Team 7: Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons 1.8. Team 8: Breece Hall, RB, Jets 1.9. Team 9: A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles 1.10. Team 10: Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles 1.11. Team 11: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions 1.12. Team 12: Puka Nacua, WR, Rams
Notes: This is going to be a mostly chalk top-12 picks. McCaffrey will lead the way, and Robinson, Hall, Barkley and Gibbs are all worth first-round picks at running back. Some might not think as highly about Barkley, but he was the RB13 last season in a lousy offense and missed three games. Imagine what he could be in Philadelphia! I have Lamb as the top wideout, slightly ahead of Hill and Jefferson (who has a questionable situation at quarterback but should still produce). In all, seven of the top 12 picks are wideouts. That includes Nacua, who busted out last season and now ranks far ahead of his veteran teammate in Los Angeles, Cooper Kupp.
ROUND 2
2.13. Team 12: Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets 2.14. Team 11: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts 2.15. Team 10: Marvin Jarrison Jr., WR, Cardinals 2.16. Team 9: Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars 2.18. Team 7: Davante Adams, WR, Raiders 2.19. Team 6: Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts 2.20. Team 5: Chris Olave, WR, Saints 2.21. Team 4: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers 2.22. Team 3: Drake London, WR, Falcons 2.23. Team 2: Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers 2.24. Team 1: Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens
Notes: This round is also dominated by wide receivers, with seven coming off the board. That includes Wilson and Harrison Jr., who are both breakout candidates for fantasy fans. London is also in line for a career season with Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, which has pushed him into the top 24. At running back, I have Williams in the top 20 despite some of his durability concerns and the addition of Blake Corum. I’m also in on Jacobs, now in Green Bay, to rebound from a poor 2023. I also like Henry to remain productive in purple.
ROUND 3
3.25. Team 1: Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles 3.26. Team 2: Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers 3.27. Team 3: Josh Allen, QB, Bills 3.28. Team 4: Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers 3.29. Team 5: Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs 3.30. Team 6: De’Vone Achane, RB, Dolphins 3.31. Team 7: James Cook, RB, Bills 3.32. Team 8: DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks 3.33. Team 9: Nico Collins, WR, Texans 3.34. Team 10: Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints 3.35. Team 11: Ken Walker, RB, Seahawks 3.36. Team 12: Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, 49ers
Notes: This is the first round we see a quarterback, as Hurts and Allen were picked in the top three. It’s also at this time when we see more running backs coming off the board, as White, Pacheco, Achane, Cook, Kamara and Walker all had their names called. White, Pacheco and Achane are RB1s for their respective teams, while Cook and Kamara are RB2s. Team 11, which went running back, running back, running back, landed Walker as its RB3. Of course, Walker will be more of a No. 2 runner in most drafts. The wideouts who came off the board include Evans, Metcalf, Collins and Samuel Sr.
ROUND 4
4.37. Team 12: Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions 4.38. Team 11: DJ Moore, WR, Bears 4.39. Team 10: Stefon Diggs, WR, Texans 4.40. Team 9: Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs 4.41. Team 8: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins 4.42. Team 7: Devonta Smith, WR, Eagles 4.43. Team 6: Joe Mixon, RB, Texans 4.44. Team 5: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs 4.45. Team 4: Malik Nabers, WR, Giants 4.46. Team 3: Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens 4.47. Team 2: Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams 4.48. Team 1: Amari Cooper, WR, Browns
Notes: LaPorta, the first tight end to come off the board, is also the first player taken in the round. Kelce, the top tight end in the previous five years, came in just a few spots later. The wide receiver feeding frenzy picked back up in the round too as seven more were drafted. That includes Diggs, who I have going one round behind his new teammate, Collins, and the second rookie wideout, Nabers. Kupp, who was a first-round pick last season, falls to the end of Round 4 after missing more games due to injuries last season, coupled with Nacua’s emergence into one of the elite wide receivers in fantasy football.
ROUND 5
5.49. Team 1: Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals 5.50. Team 2: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens 5.51. Team 3: D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears 5.52. Team 4: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots 5.53. Team 5: Zack Moss, RB, Bengals 5.54. Team 6: Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders 5.55. Team 7: Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars 5.56. Team 8: Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens 5.57. Team 9: James Conner, RB, Cardinals 5.58. Team 10: C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans 5.59. Team 11: Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers 5.60. Team 12: Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
Notes: This round also starts with a tight end in McBride, who I see as a major breakout candidate. He has top-three upside as the Cardinals' unquestioned No. 1 option at the position. Three quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson are also called in this round. Several teams that went with wide receivers in the first three to four rounds are now looking for values as their No. 1 or 2 running back. Those included Swift, Stevenson, Moss, and Conner. I might have McConkey ranked a bit higher than some other analysts, but the target share potential with the Chargers is hard to ignore.
ROUND 6
6.61. Team 12: Zamir White, RB, Raiders 6.62. Team 11: Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals 6.63. Team 10: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills 6.64. Team 9: Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals 6.65. Team 8: Jonathon Brooks, RB, Colts 6.66. Team 7: Nick Chubb, RB, Browns 6.67. Team 6: Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys 6.68. Team 5: Geroge Pickens, WR, Steelers 6.69. Team 4: George Kittle, TE, 49ers 6.70. Team 3: Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings 6.71. Team 2: Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins 6.72. Team 1: Jayden Reed, WR, Packers
Notes: White, a potential breakout candidate as the new lead back in Las Vegas, is picked as an RB1 for Team 12. That squad started with three wideouts, a tight end and quarterback. Brooks is the first rookie runner off the board, while veteran Chubb drops out of the top 60 coming off a gruesome knee injury suffered last season. Kincaid, another tight end who could bust out, went a few spots ahead of Kittle. Mostert, who scored 21 touchdowns and was a top-five runner last season, lasts until the end of sixth round. Projected touchdown regression is an absolute draft killer!
ROUND 7
7.73. Team 1: Keenan Allen, WR, Bears 7.74. Team 2: David Montgomery, RB, Lions 7.75. Team 3: Tank Dell, WR, Texans 7.76. Team 4: Najee Harris, RB, Steelers 7.77. Team 5: Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons 7.78. Team 6: Tony Pollard, RB, Titans 7.79. Team 7: Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars 7.80. Team 8: Jordan Love, QB, Packers 7.81. Team 9: Austin Ekeler, RB, Commanders 7.82. Team 10: Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos 7.83. Team 11: David Njoku, TE, Browns 7.84. Team 12: Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Commanders
Notes: Allen, whose stock took a dive when the Chargers traded him to the Bears, is the first pick of Round 7. He’ll serve as the No. 3 wideout for Team 1. The round includes just one more wideout, Dell, who also lost value due to personnel changes (most notably, the addition of Diggs). This was a running back heavy round with six coming off the board. That includes both Commanders runners, Ekeler and Robinson Jr., and Pollard. He’ll serve as the new projected starter in Tennessee, though a committee situation with Tyjae Spears could put a cap on his fantasy ceiling. There are also three tight ends in this round, with Pitts being picked first. With Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, this is his best shot to bust out and finally meet his lofty fantasy expectations.
ROUND 8
8.85. Team 12: Devin Singletary, RB, Giants 8.86. Team 11: Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals 8.87. Team 10: Calvin Ridley, WR, Titans 8.88. Team 9: Diontae Johnson, WR, Panthers 8.89. Team 8: Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys 8.90. Team 7: Brock Purdy, QB 49ers 8.91. Team 6: Marquise Brown, WR, Chiefs 8.92. Team 5: Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers 8.93. Team 4: Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos 8.94. Team 3: Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers 8.95. Team 2: Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs 8.96. Team 1: Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings
Notes: There are some nice potential values in the round, including quarterbacks Murray and Purdy. Singletary has never been a fantasy superstar, but he seems to have the Giants backfield all to himself and he knows the offense of coach Brian Daboll from their time in Buffalo. The round also includes both Chiefs wide receivers in Brown and Rice. No one knows if and for how long Rice will be suspended for his off-field issues, so he’s tough to project at this point. Still, these will be Kansas City’s projected starters in 2024.
ROUND 9
9.97. Team 1: Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans 9.98. Team 2: Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders 9.99. Team 3: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys 9.100. Team 4: Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders 9.101. Team 5: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks 9.102. Team 6: Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles 9.103. Team 7: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Titans 9.104. Team 8: Jameson Williams, WR, Lions 9.105. Team 9: Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks 9.106. Team 10: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars 9.107. Team 11: Keon Coleman, WR, Bills 9.108. Team 12: Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs
Notes: Round 9 is full of potential values, including Spears, Bowers, Daniels, JSN, and Williams. Personally, I have Daniels as a breakout candidate in his rookie season. I also like Williams, who is getting a lot of positive hype out of Detroit. The round ends with six wideouts, three of which are rookies. I have Smith-Njigba and Lockett coming off the board within a few picks of each other, but I’m higher on the former in his second year. Thomas Jr., Coleman, and Worthy could earn significant roles for their respective teams and could move up in future mocks. For now I like them as No. 4 fantasy receivers.
ROUND 10
10.109. Team 12: Trey Benson, RB, Cardinals 10.110. Team 11: Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks 10.111. Team 10: Rome Odunze, WR, Bears 10.112. Team 9: Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens 10.113. Team 8: Jerome Ford, RB, Browns 10.114. Team 7: Tyler Allgeier, RB, Falcons 10.115. Team 6: Chase Brown, RB, Bengals 10.116. Team 5: Christian Watson, WR, Packers 10.117. Team 4: Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons 10.118. Team 3: Adam Thielen, WR, Panthers 10.119. Team 2: Mike Williams, WR, Jets 10.120. Team 1: Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders
Notes: The second rookie running back, Benson, starts things off in the 10th. He’s one of six runners picked in the round, all of which are committee of handcuff options. Odunze might be more talented than some of the rookie wideouts who have been drafted ahead of him, but his landing spot was the least attractive causing his re-draft stock to fall. This is also the round where Cousins, who was on pace to throw for 5,000 yards last season, had his name called. Now in Atlanta, he should push for top-12 quarterback value.
