In the opening game of a series in Baltimore between the two teams jockeying for the lead of the AL East — the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles — Baltimore walked away with a win that nearly could have been lost.
In the top of the ninth inning on Monday, Yankees utilityman Oswaldo Cabrera hit a ball deep to left field. The ball, launched 379 feet, would have been a home run in six parks in the majors according to Statcast, but not Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
It was noted by Yankees commentator Michael Kay that it would have been a home run three years ago, calling out the fact that the Orioles reconfigured the stadium to move the left field back a distance.
Instead, it was an easy flyout that led to an Orioles’ win.
Wednesday, for the third game in the four-game set, Cabrera hit another ball that went 352 feet to right field. This one was ruled a home run because it got lodged in the right-field foul pole fencing.
“At the moment that I hit the ball, I know it that I hit really well, but I didn’t know where was the ball. So if you see my running to first I was like, ‘where’s the ball?'”
One night, falling short to the dimensions of the field. A few days later, getting past the same park’s dimensions, just by the skin of the ball, both events playing into the final scoreline directly.
Going into Thursday’s matchup, the Orioles lead the series 2-1, with both teams locked in a tie for the top spot in the AL East.
Anyone who’s ever started a new job knows the feeling. You’re new to the area, perhaps you don’t know the workspace layout very well. Coworkers’ names prove elusive. Maybe you do something mildly embarrassing to leave a shaky early impression—for example, in the case of Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser, throw away a treasured keepsake of your nine-time All-Star closer.
There’s a reason they call them rookie mistakes: It’s because rookies make them. A lot of them.
But fear not, newbies, because the 2024 season is now more than a month old, giving plenty of opportunities to shake off the early butterflies and settle into your new lives as big leaguers. To mark the occasion, we present to you the first edition of Sports Illustrated's Rookie Roundup. Each week, we’ll check in on the latest from the game’s standout first-year players, alternating between the American and National Leagues.
The idea is to shine a spotlight on the best (and most entertaining) happenings from rookies far and wide. We’ll cover the headliners, of course—and with the steady influx of young talent, there are plenty of already big names to track—but also aim to uncover hidden gems making names for themselves as the season progresses.
This week’s focus is simple: We’ll highlight the five best AL rookies so far, with the NL’s top five coming next week. All of the players considered have, of course, made their fair share of rookie blunders. But they’ve made up for them (and then some) with their stellar play to this point.
1. Colton Cowser, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore’s organizational rebuild (read: tank-a-thon) from the late-2010’s resulted in the franchise picking in the top-five of the draft in four consecutive years from ’19 to ’22. One of those picks turned into Cowser, whose 26-game debut last season (with a .115 batting average and zero home runs) left a lot to be desired. Named to the Opening Day roster by manager Brandon Hyde after posting a 1.136 OPS during spring training, Cowser seized an everyday role by the season’s second week and hasn’t looked back.
Cowser’s hitting profile is a modern twist on the "three true outcomes" template: lots of walks and strikeouts, sure, but plenty of hard contact (rather than merely home runs). His 34.3% strikeout rate is the eighth-highest among players with at least 90 plate appearances, and his 38.1% whiff rate is the seventh-highest. But a quick glance at his Baseball Savant page shows plenty of red bars, as Cowser’s barrel rate, hard-hit rate and expected slugging percentage all rank in the 90th percentile or better. Combine all that with a 10.1% walk rate and excellent defense, and Cowser could follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps and make it back-to-back Rookie of the Year awards for the Orioles.
Miller has struck out 29 batters in 14 1/3 innings so far this season.
Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports
2. Mason Miller, RP, Oakland Athletics
If they gave trophies to teams for putting together five-and-a-half weeks of mediocre play when almost everybody in the baseball world expected nothing short of total ineptitude, the Athletics would get one. The franchise is in an abysmal position, with an owner resolved to move the team to Las Vegas and coming off consecutive 100-plus loss seasons. While the roster is low on household names (an A’s staple as old as time itself), the team has outperformed projections to this point with a 17–18 mark, and Miller’s been a key reason.
A five-year college career spent at Division III Waynesburg (with one season at Gardner-Webb) didn’t keep Miller from being drafted by Oakland in the third round in 2021. He logged just 28 2/3 minor league innings from ’21 to ’23 before debuting in April of last year. Miller pitched in 10 games for the A’s last season—six of them starts—and impressed enough to make the roster out of spring training this season as a part of the bullpen.
That’s an extremely truncated acceleration timeline, which is sort of fitting given how quickly Miller has ascended into becoming the league’s most dominant closer. His fastball averages (yes, averages) 100.7 mph, and he’s struck out 29 of the 54 batters he’s faced this season. Miller is a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances, helping Oakland to a 7–5 record in one-run games. His FIP currently sits at -0.06, and while it’s sure to climb out of the red eventually, Miller’s already established himself as one of baseball’s most electric pitchers.
3. Wilyer Abreu, OF, Boston Red Sox
Abreu earned himself a late August call-up in 2023 but retained his rookie status coming into ‘24. He hit well in his debut, and has built on last year’s showing to quickly become one of Boston’s most important pieces so far.
Abreu ranks fourth among AL rookies in runs scored (16) and RBIs (13), adding strong defense in right field and speed on the base paths, going a perfect 5-for-5 in stolen base attempts. If there’s a reason to temper optimism a bit, it’s the fact that his .297/.381/.473 slash line is buoyed by a .403 BABIP. Statcast paints a far less enthusiastic view of Abreu, with an expected batting average of .225. Even if regression is on the way, he’s shown enough to solidify promise as a bonafide everyday player.
Gil gave up just two hits and no runs with five strikeouts in his last start against the Orioles.
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
4. Luis Gil, SP, New York Yankees
New York’s rotation has collectively risen to the occasion in reigning Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole’s absence, and Gil has more than done his part in the efforts.
The 25-year-old has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his six starts. His most impressive outing was also his most recent: 6 1/3 shutout innings against the Orioles on Wednesday. Gil averages 11.61 strikeouts per nine innings, fourth-most among pitchers who have thrown at least 30 frames. Walks have been an issue, though one that’s trending in the right direction: He gave up 17 free passes in 19 2/3 innings in his first four outings, but has allowed only three in his last two starts.
5. James McArthur, RP, Kansas City Royals
A Royals team coming off of a 106-loss campaign has been one of 2024’s biggest surprises so far, with a 20–15 record and the second-highest run differential (plus-44) in the AL. There’s plenty of credit to go around the roster, but McArthur’s emergence as a lockdown closer (Sunday’s blown save against the Rangers notwithstanding) deserves recognition.
McArthur’s best asset is his control. He’s walked only two of the 66 batters he’s faced so far, compared to 18 strikeouts. Missing bats is also a strength, as McArthur has a whiff rate of 34.9%. Sunday’s meltdown was his first blown save since taking over as the team’s closer, but even then, his strengths were on display. He drew 18 swings on his 30 pitches—with eight of them whiffs—and he didn’t walk a batter. McArthur spent six years in the Philadelphia Phillies’ system working primarily as a starter before being traded to the Royals in 2023, beginning his transition to the bullpen. He seems to have found his rhythm there, and has so far played a crucial role in one of MLB’s best success stories.
UPDATE: Juan Soto's MRI came back with only inflammation, according to MLB insider Jon Heyman. His AL MVP odds have still dropped to +450 at FanDuel Sportsbook -- but they have rebounded after falling as low as +650.
The initial prognosis on Juan Soto's MRI is that it's only inflammation and he should be ok, per @JonHeyman
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 7, 2024
What follows is the initial story of the odds movement following Soto's exit from Thursday night's game against the Minnesota Twins. His odds have remained the same at DraftKings Sportsbook (+235) throughout this process.
New York Yankees fans everywhere held their breath on Thursday night after Juan Soto was lifted from the team's win with what the Yankees called, "left forearm discomfort."
However, MLB insider Jon Heyman revealed on Friday that the Yankees are "nervous" when it comes to Soto and his injury and his odds have fallen since the injury occurred.
"The Yankees have their fingers crossed, they're nervous."
— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) June 7, 2024
Soto is slashing an impressive .318/.424/.603 with 17 homers on the season. He was right behind teammate Aaron Judge in the odds as the No. 2 favorite for the AL MVP.
That has since changed at FanDuel Sportsbook, a sign that Soto could be looking at a stint on the injured list. Even if Soto plays, oddsmakers may be taking their chance on him being less effective with his forearm bothering him, at least in terms of his ability to win AL MVP.
Kansas City Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. and Baltimore Orioles star Gunnar Henderson have leapfrogged Soto in the latest AL MVP odds. Soto dropped from +210 to +650 since being removed from Thursday's game, a massive falloff that signals oddsmakers believe he's at least expected to miss some time or be less effective in the MVP race.
The other important note here is Judge has jumped to a clear favorite in this market. After posting an OPS over 1.400 in May, Judge is now hitting .289 on the season and leads baseball in homers (21), doubles, and walks drawn.
Despite the movement at FanDuel, that isn't the case everywhere in the betting market.
In this case, oddsmakers still believe in Soto's AL MVP case, although Witt Jr. and Henderson are right on his heels for the No. 2 spot.
Until the Yankees officially announce a roster move, Soto's status is truly up in the air.
The star outfielder addressed the media on Thursday, saying he's been dealing with the ailment for a couple of weeks. While he's been able to play through it, there has to be some concern that this has been building over time.
Juan Soto says he's felt the forearm tightness for a couple weeks but it hasn't impacted his baseball related activities at all pic.twitter.com/UuyC2ATyyA
Soto didn't have to make many throws against the Twins on Thursday, and it's unclear if there is a specific spot where he could have aggravated his forearm that led to his removal from the game.
If the injury isn't bothering Soto when he hits, he theoretically could stay in the AL-leading Yankees lineup as a designated hitter.
The problem? That spot is usually manned by slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who has been injury-prone in the past and is certainly risky to play in the field. For now, the Yankees and their fans -- and Soto bettors -- are hoping for some positive news about his injury in the coming days.
I think this helps Judge's MVP case the most, as the Yankees would rely even more on the 2022 AL MVP if Soto can't play for any period.
Judge has finished in the top five in MVP voting in three different seasons in his MLB career.
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Three decades have passed since the end of Hall of Fame former Baltimore Orioles pitcher Jim Palmer's distinguished career.
However, antipathy toward shoddy umpiring never leaves former players. Palmer proved as such during the Orioles' 4-2 win over the New York Yankees on Tuesday night, which he called for Mid-Atlantic Sports Network.
After shortstop Gunnar Henderson was called out on strikes on a pitch outside the zone in the first inning, Palmer lit into umpire C.B. Bucknor.
"You kinda wonder how bad he's gonna be and he's shown us already in the first inning," Palmer said. "All you want is a guy that understands the strike zone."
"He shouldn't be umpiring and he is, and they know it."
According to Umpire Scorecards, Bucknor's 91.6% accuracy on pitches called is tied for the lowest in baseball this season among umpires who've worked at least five games.
"He shouldn't be umpiring and he is, and they know it," Palmer said. "He's been around a long time, it doesn't mean you—it's kinda like pitching. When I couldn't get people out, I became a broadcaster."
Bucknor, who's worked five postseasons and two All-Star Games, has been an MLB umpire since 1996.
