In the opening game of a series in Baltimore between the two teams jockeying for the lead of the AL East — the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles — Baltimore walked away with a win that nearly could have been lost.
In the top of the ninth inning on Monday, Yankees utilityman Oswaldo Cabrera hit a ball deep to left field. The ball, launched 379 feet, would have been a home run in six parks in the majors according to Statcast, but not Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
It was noted by Yankees commentator Michael Kay that it would have been a home run three years ago, calling out the fact that the Orioles reconfigured the stadium to move the left field back a distance.
Instead, it was an easy flyout that led to an Orioles’ win.
Wednesday, for the third game in the four-game set, Cabrera hit another ball that went 352 feet to right field. This one was ruled a home run because it got lodged in the right-field foul pole fencing.
“At the moment that I hit the ball, I know it that I hit really well, but I didn’t know where was the ball. So if you see my running to first I was like, ‘where’s the ball?'”
One night, falling short to the dimensions of the field. A few days later, getting past the same park’s dimensions, just by the skin of the ball, both events playing into the final scoreline directly.
Going into Thursday’s matchup, the Orioles lead the series 2-1, with both teams locked in a tie for the top spot in the AL East.
UPDATE: Juan Soto's MRI came back with only inflammation, according to MLB insider Jon Heyman. His AL MVP odds have still dropped to +450 at FanDuel Sportsbook -- but they have rebounded after falling as low as +650.
The initial prognosis on Juan Soto's MRI is that it's only inflammation and he should be ok, per @JonHeyman
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 7, 2024
What follows is the initial story of the odds movement following Soto's exit from Thursday night's game against the Minnesota Twins. His odds have remained the same at DraftKings Sportsbook (+235) throughout this process.
New York Yankees fans everywhere held their breath on Thursday night after Juan Soto was lifted from the team's win with what the Yankees called, "left forearm discomfort."
However, MLB insider Jon Heyman revealed on Friday that the Yankees are "nervous" when it comes to Soto and his injury and his odds have fallen since the injury occurred.
"The Yankees have their fingers crossed, they're nervous."
— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) June 7, 2024
Soto is slashing an impressive .318/.424/.603 with 17 homers on the season. He was right behind teammate Aaron Judge in the odds as the No. 2 favorite for the AL MVP.
That has since changed at FanDuel Sportsbook, a sign that Soto could be looking at a stint on the injured list. Even if Soto plays, oddsmakers may be taking their chance on him being less effective with his forearm bothering him, at least in terms of his ability to win AL MVP.
Kansas City Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. and Baltimore Orioles star Gunnar Henderson have leapfrogged Soto in the latest AL MVP odds. Soto dropped from +210 to +650 since being removed from Thursday's game, a massive falloff that signals oddsmakers believe he's at least expected to miss some time or be less effective in the MVP race.
The other important note here is Judge has jumped to a clear favorite in this market. After posting an OPS over 1.400 in May, Judge is now hitting .289 on the season and leads baseball in homers (21), doubles, and walks drawn.
Despite the movement at FanDuel, that isn't the case everywhere in the betting market.
In this case, oddsmakers still believe in Soto's AL MVP case, although Witt Jr. and Henderson are right on his heels for the No. 2 spot.
Until the Yankees officially announce a roster move, Soto's status is truly up in the air.
The star outfielder addressed the media on Thursday, saying he's been dealing with the ailment for a couple of weeks. While he's been able to play through it, there has to be some concern that this has been building over time.
Juan Soto says he's felt the forearm tightness for a couple weeks but it hasn't impacted his baseball related activities at all pic.twitter.com/UuyC2ATyyA
Soto didn't have to make many throws against the Twins on Thursday, and it's unclear if there is a specific spot where he could have aggravated his forearm that led to his removal from the game.
If the injury isn't bothering Soto when he hits, he theoretically could stay in the AL-leading Yankees lineup as a designated hitter.
The problem? That spot is usually manned by slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who has been injury-prone in the past and is certainly risky to play in the field. For now, the Yankees and their fans -- and Soto bettors -- are hoping for some positive news about his injury in the coming days.
I think this helps Judge's MVP case the most, as the Yankees would rely even more on the 2022 AL MVP if Soto can't play for any period.
Judge has finished in the top five in MVP voting in three different seasons in his MLB career.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
With baseball all day, we all want to know who is going to crack one deep.
Lucky for you, I've canvassed the board for some advantageous matchups for hitters across Major League Baseball, including MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles.
In addition to Henderson, I'm eyeing two other hitters that are in line ofr home runs, find out who below!
Henderson is seeking his 20th home run of the season, and I love it to come on Wednesday.
Ranking in the 95th percentile or better in xSLG, average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, per MLBStatcast. Henderson is rightfully inside of +400 to go deep against Jose Berrios, who has allowed hard contact on more than 44% of balls put in play, which is in the 18th percentile.
15 of his 19 homers have come against righties, and Berrios' looming regression due to hard contact makes Henderson a prime candidate to go deep on Wednesday.
Jeimer Candelario
Candelario is swinging a sweet bat at the moment, hitting .368 over his last 19 at bats with a home run while slugging .579. He draws a favorable matchup against Dakota Hudson of the Rockies at the hitter friendly Coors Field.
Hudson is struggling this season, posting a 5.02 ERA that balloons at home to a 7.43 ERA in five starts while allowing two home runs.
Candelario is slugging .444 against righties, far higher than his .397 mark against lefties while mashing six of his seven homers against righties, I'll back him in a good spot on Wednesday afternoon in Colorado.
Jake Cronenworth
A lefty batter, Cronenworth is a dangerous hitter against right handed pitching, mashing all of his eight home runs against that side while slugging .528. He is a disciplined hitter who is barreling up nearly nine percent of balls in play, which is in the 63rd percentile.
With the wind blowing out at Angel Stadium at about eight miles per hour, and a soft-tossing Jose Soriano set to start for the Halos, I like Cronenworth to crack his ninth dinger of the year.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Kevin Brown and Ben McDonald called Sunday's Baltimore Orioles-Cincinnati Reds game on MASN. The away team crushed the home Reds, 11-1, leaving plenty of opportunity for Kevin Brown to really explore the space. By the time Adley Rutschman singled in the seventh inning, Brown was referencing the Kendrick Lamar-Drake beef.
"Gets a piece! Flares it over De La Cruz, which is basically like hitting a ball over a skyscraper! And Ramon scores on the RBI single. He's got more hits this week than Kendrick Lamar."
"He's got more hits this week than Kendrick Lamar" -Orioles broadcaster Kevin Brown pic.twitter.com/wTb4cUPclu
This reference was met with complete silence before McDonald said, "I know there's a joke in there somewhere." Without missing a beat Brown shot back that the reference, "went over your head just like it went over De La Cruz's."
Brown surely cannot be surprised that McDonald didn't get it. Just last season he had to explain to McDdonald who blink-182 was. Expecting a guy who apparently missed out on mainstream music culture over the last two decades to know who is involved in the latest rap beef seems unlikely. The man isn't even stay up to date on ice cream flavors.
Along those same lines, Brown did the audience a disservice by not asking McDonald if he has ever heard of Drake. In fact, he should probably make it a point of emphasis to see how many times he can make a popular culture reference that McDonald doesn't get. The Orioles currently have one of the best records in baseball and own the best run differential in the American League. There should be plenty of low stakes late game situations to really get creative.
