The 2022-2023 women’s college basketball season is finally here, with the first slate of games kicking off on Monday, Nov. 7. Next week’s action jumpstarts a five-month-long campaign that will culminate with the national championship game on April 2 in Dallas. Ahead of the year’s tip-off, Sports Illustrated’s hoops writers are peering into their crystal balls to make predictions for what will unfold over the upcoming season.
Will reigning champs South Carolina be dethroned? Who will earn one of the coveted Final Four spots in Dallas? Who will live up to their preseason hype? We debate a range of topics across the sport as we look forward to what’s sure to be another riveting season in college hoops.
Dawn Staley led the Gamecocks on a dominant championship run last season.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
Ben Pickman’s Final Four picks
South Carolina: Aliyah Boston’s return is enough to put the Gamecocks in the Final Four, but coach Dawn Staley has also assembled perhaps the best supporting cast in the country around her star big.
Stanford: Two legitimate National Player of the Year candidates headline the Cardinal, who have plenty of experience in the frontcourt.
Texas: They almost made the Final Four last season, and a year later, star sophomore guard Rori Harmon should only continue to build on her stellar debut campaign. Plus, the acquisition of guard Shaylee Gonzales via the transfer portal may be the biggest addition of the college basketball offseason.
Tennessee: Kellie Harper’s group opened last season 18–1, but struggled over the final month of the year after All-SEC first-team guard Jordan Horston suffered a season-ending elbow injury. With Horston back healthy, plus a number of proven transfers coming in, Tennessee seems poised to get back to its first Final Four in more than a decade.
Wilton Jackson’s Final Four picks
South Carolina: Two words: Aliyah Boston. Not only is the Gamecocks’ center the most dominant player in women’s college basketball, but the reigning Naismith Player of the Year also has all the components of a championship player individually as well as the ability to lead and actively get her teammates involved. South Carolina goes as Boston goes. When you factor in Boston along with players like Zia Cooke, Victaria Saxton, Kamilla Cardoso, defensive specialist Brea Beal and Laeticia Amihere, who is primed to elevate her game this season as well as other players on the roster, it is hard to bet against Dawn Staley’s team going back-to-back on national titles.
Stanford: Even without the Hull sisters and Anna Wilson, head coach Tara VanDerveer finds a way to keep this team among the best and elite in the country. This season will not be any different as long as Haley Jones and Cameron Brink are on the court. One cannot forget the impact of Francesca Belibi as well. Expect the Cardinal to be in the mix for a Final Four spot.
Texas: The Longhorns are loaded with talent. Vic Schaefer, the same coach who led Mississippi State to back-to-back Final Four appearances in 2017 and 2018, has the talent this season that could catapult Texas to its first Final Four appearance since 2003. The Longhorns went toe-to-toe with Stanford in its Elite Eight loss, and with last year’s Big 12 Tournament Most Outstanding Player Rori Harmon, Aaliyah Moore, back-to-back WCC Player of the Year Shaylee Gonzales, Taylor Jones and more, Texas has the right pieces and the capability to potentially cut down the nets for a national title in Dallas in April.
Louisville: The Cardinals lost three great players—Emily Engstler, Kianna Smith and Chelsie Hall—after last season. But the one player who learned to become a leader from the trio of seniors remains in Hailey Van Lith. Now, as a junior, Van Lith’s leadership and production have become even more critical with the addition of Morgan Jones and Chrislyn Carr into the program. While ACC competition will not be a cakewalk this season, the Cardinals are my team to potentially represent the conference in a Final Four situation.
Emily Schumacher’s Final Four picks
South Carolina: The reigning NCAA champs aren’t going anywhere. The Gamecocks bring back their core four and replace their one departing player with point guard Kierra Fletcher for a dominant and experienced squad.
Texas: Coach Vic Schaefer has proven success, leading the Longhorns to an Elite Eight appearance and Big 12 tournament win last season. Highly decorated guard Rori Harmon returns to the court, bolstered by three top transfers and a trio of freshmen in the top 100 rankings.
Stanford: Boasting two preseason All-Americans and the nation’s top recruit, 6’7’’ Lauren Betts, the Cardinal will likely make their third straight Final Four appearance.
Tennessee: The Volunteers greatly benefited from the transfer portal this offseason to build around return high scorer Jordan Horston, who averaged 16.2 points per game last season.
Elizabeth Swinton’s Final Four picks:
South Carolina: Fresh off a national championship, the Gamecocks have the talent and depth to repeat. Led by reigning Naismith and Defensive Player of the Year Aliyah Boston, along with Zia Cooke and Brea Beal, South Carolina enters the season as the team to beat.
Stanford: The Cardinal reached the Final Four last season, only to be defeated by a balanced UConn team. The Huskies may not stand in the way of Stanford this time around; this is the year to break through for a championship.
Texas: The Longhorns fell to Stanford in the Elite Eight in March, but they enter the new season with one of Division I’s best backcourts. Rori Harmon will be joined by talented BYU transfer Shaylee Gonzales to strengthen Texas’ national title case this season.
Tennessee: The Volunteers enter the new season with reinforcements after falling to Louisville in the Sweet 16 last season. A strong transfer class bolsters an already-strong core and gives Tennessee the edge to round out the Final Four.
Who’s your dark-horse Final Four pick?
Pickman: Virginia Tech. Can a school ranked in the AP preseason top 15 really be considered a sleeper? Probably not, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Hokies end their season in Dallas. Reigning ACC Player of the Year Elizabeth Kitley and Maryland transfer Ashley Owusu should be one of the toughest duos in the country to stop.
Jackson: Tennessee. The Volunteers nearly made it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA tournament last season without Jordan Horston. Not only is Horston back and healthy for this season, but Tennessee will also feature the talented Mississippi State transfer Rickea Jackson, in conjunction with Tamari Key, who makes up a Volunteers’ squad that is long, physical and athletic. While it is no secret that Tennessee will have its fair share of battles in conference play—that includes a matchup against South Carolina— the Volunteers could present challenges to a lot of teams down the stretch of the season and within the tournament next spring.
Schumacher: Iowa. It’s no secret that the Hawkeyes are a scoring powerhouse. If they have put in the work defensively this off-season, there is no stopping Iowa.
Swinton: UConn. Injuries have the Huskies out of the projected Final Four, but Geno Auriemma can never be counted out. A big year from Azzi Fudd, along with a cohesive group, could help make up for Paige Bueckers’s absence and have UConn surprise this season.
National Player of the Year:
Pickman: Hayley Jones
Jackson: Aliyah Boston
Schumacher: Caitlin Clark
Swinton: Aliyah Boston
Who will win the national championship?
Pickman: Stanford. The Cardinal have the size to matchup up with anybody, including the reigning defending champion Gamecocks. Plus, expect to see continued improvement from stars Cameron Brink and Haley Jones, who will be pressed into more of a ball-handling role this season. Stanford fell in last year’s national semifinal, a game they fully admit was not their best. In many ways, they should have played South Carolina in the national championship last year. That meeting, however, will have to wait until this winter, so expect Jones and Aliyah Boston (the likely top-two picks in the 2023 WNBA draft) to compete head-to-head for this year’s title.
Jackson: South Carolina. This year’s Gamecocks team will look different from last year’s championship team. Nonetheless, a strong core group of players remains on this year’s team. That, I believe, will pay huge dividends for the program down the stretch of the season when it matters the most. Boston, Cooke, Beal and company know what it takes to cut down the nets. While there were certain instances and portions of the season where South Carolina struggled offensively during games or had slow starts in the tournament, those lessons become ever so valuable when and if they present themselves again during this season and in the tournament. Experience is a wonderful asset and will arguably be one of the biggest reasons that South Carolina remains a favorite to repeat. The most recent team to win back-to-back titles was UConn, in which the Huskies won four consecutive championships between 2013 to 2016.
Schumacher: I predict Stanford will win it all this year as the Cardinal are thirsty to rebound from last year’s loss to UConn in the final four. Power duo Haley Jones and Cameron Brink return to the court and are looking to measure up to their preseason honors. This Pac-12 favorite has the versatility and player depth to cut down the nets this season.
Swinton: Stanford. South Carolina has the talent and defense to go back-to-back, but the Cardinal have size on their side. Stanford’s defense has the potential to shut down Boston on the interior, a skill not many other teams possess. That will be the secret sauce to getting past South Carolina and winning the title, assuming the Gamecocks’ offense doesn’t take a jump this season.
I am not buying the hype on…
Pickman: UConn. Could the Huskies end the season in the top five nationally? Absolutely. But without star guard Paige Bueckers, there are a lot more question marks they need to sort through. Azzi Fudd will need to (and likely will) take a big step forward, and while Final Four appearances are routine in Storrs, with Bueckers out (plus top-recruit Ice Brady also set to miss the year), this might be the March in which the Huskies fall ahead of the third week of the tournament.
Jackson: Virginia Tech. It is tough to say that the Hokies are drastically overrated. For one, Virginia Tech head coach Kenny Brooks did acquire two-time All-American Ashley Owusu (Maryland) from the transfer portal along with Taylor Soule, a transfer grad student from Boston College, to pair up with Elizabeth Kitley, the reigning ACC Player of the Year and the league’s Preseason Player of the Year ahead of the 2022-23 season. While the Hokies recently earned their highest preseason ranking in the Associated Press poll, I am not quite ready to put Virginia Tech as the second-best team in the ACC behind Louisville, despite the Hokies being voted as the second-best team in the conference to begin the season. I am interested to see how things unfold for the program and where it stacks up next to Notre Dame, North Carolina and NC State.
Schumacher: Oregon. The transfer portal got the upper hand against the Ducks with the loss of Maddie Scherr and Sydney Parrish. Te-Hina Paopao is back, but Sedona Prince’s collegiate career is over due to a recent injury, in a huge blow to Kelly Graves’s program.
Swinton: Iowa. All eyes are on Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes, who were named the favorite in the Big Ten preseason rankings. After bowing out in the second round of the NCAA tournament as a No. 2 seed last season, Iowa has to prove that it can hang around for the long haul. The Hawkeyes have the talent with Clark and Monika Czinano but need to show they have what it takes to make a deep run this postseason.
One Bold Prediction
Pickman: Expect the unexpected during the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 — I’m not talking on-court product, but new this season, the regional rounds will be held at only two sites instead of the four used in past tournaments. That means more teams in fewer spaces, which could lead to more content-creating opportunities for players, more raucous crowds (that could unite opposing fan bases against a common opponent) and more overall madness.
Jackson: Don’t sleep on a revamped LSU team this season. The addition of former Maryland star Angel Reese into Kim Mulkey’s system will serve as a huge boost for the program. Getting Alexis Morris back, who missed the final portion of the regular season and the Tigers postseason experience, was a big reason why LSU was bounced in the second round of the NCAA tournament last season. Between Reese, Morris and others on the program’s retooled roster, LSU could potentially make its first Sweet 16 appearance since 2014 or its first Elite Eight appearance since 2008.
I also feel that Creighton is primed for another deep tournament run. The Bluejays were very impressive in earning their first Elite Eight appearance last season. With eight players returning, including Lauren Jensen, don’t be surprised if Creighton is still standing in the last week of March.
Schumacher: LSU will fight its way to the Sweet Sixteen. Year two under Mulkey is bound to outperform all expectations with the addition of transfer Angel Reese.
Swinton: Viewership will continue to break records. Last season’s South Carolina-UConn national championship game was the most-watched women’s title game in nearly 20 years, per ESPN, while the tournament as a whole was the most-watched in over a decade. Bueckers’s injury hurts national interest this season but returning talent will bring eyeballs to the sport and continue the momentum in viewership.
