Weighing Ron Rivera’s Job Security With the Commanders

Week 6 starts Thursday. The mailbag starts now …

From Samuel Reyes (@YourfavHilo): Is it time to pull the plug on Ron Rivera and his staff? Either move him upstairs or completely get rid of him. His coaching isn’t working.

Samuel, I get your feelings on the trajectory of the operation. Washington was 7–9 in 2020, 7–10 in ’21, and would need to go 6–6 just to get to seven wins this year—which, given how much tougher the NFC East is than was expected, could be a bigger ask than you might think. And if the Commanders are worse than they were last year, that’d be three years of backsliding, and most coaches don’t survive that.

That said, I’ll be interested to see how much leeway Rivera gets for everything he had to deal with over the last 32 months. Before he coached a game for Washington, Rivera had to serve as the face of the franchise—because others were too cowardly to step up and do it—as pressure to change the nickname rose and eventually prompted a move, and as a workplace misconduct scandal exploded.

And more than just failing to face the music, owner Daniel Snyder more or less went into hiding.

Rivera represented the organization with dignity when it was badly needed. We’ll see whether that gets him more rope, and a fourth year, in Washington. My expectation would be if that comes to pass, there’d be some sort of mandate to tie up the quarterback position once and for all. This is actually where Rivera’s issue has been similar to the one that took down his Carolina successor, Matt Rhule.

Rhule and Rivera took big swings the last two years (both went after Matthew Stafford in 2021. Rhule went for Deshaun Watson this year, Rivera tried to get in on Russell Wilson), then preached a patient approach in passing on other options for stopgaps/reclamation projects. For Rhule, that meant Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. For Rivera, it meant Alex Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick and now Carson Wentz (with Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen sprinkled in along the way).

You don’t get forever to look for one, of course. And, again, if the Commanders don’t turn it around over the next three months, I think you’ll find that to be the case for Rivera in 2023.

From Codey Dauch (@codeydraws): What, if anything, can the Browns do to fix their defensive woes?

Codey, my guess would be that Cleveland defensive coordinator Joe Woods will be in the crosshairs, first and foremost, if the Browns don’t get better on that side of the ball. The collapse against the Jets was, obviously, inexcusable. And the Browns have gotten run over by the Falcons (202 rushing yards allowed) and Chargers (238 rushing yards allowed) since, which is a big reason why they’ve lost winnable games, and are 2–3 and not 5–0.

If there was an in-season change, linebackers coach Jason Tarver is the one position coach on hand with NFL play-calling experience.

The other place to look is, of course, at the team’s personnel. And there’s no question that while the defense is good personnel-wise on the edges of the front seven and in the secondary, there’s a little weakness up the middle, which is a big part of the reason for the run defense’s struggles. Anthony Walker’s injury exacerbated that and led to the Deion Jones trade this week. But it feels like it’ll take more than just Jones to fix the problem.

So as I see it, the Browns will probably keep an eye on the defensive tackle market over the few weeks left before the trade deadline, and hope their young players there come along. And the coaching situation bears watching.

From Piotr Rosol (@truwaves81): Is Geno Smith a franchise QB? Did the Giants tell Daniel Jones that he too can be like Josh Allen?

Piotr, I don’t think Geno is—but there’s an interesting thing to look at here, on how we look at quarterback development in general. I spoke with Smith after he threw for 320 yards and a 132.5 passer rating, and the Seahawks outlasted the Lions two weeks ago. One thing he said stuck with me.

“I mean, to be honest, I’ve been playing like this for a while,” Smith said. “It just doesn’t go recognized by you guys for some reason. But with the offense that I’ve inherited, man, we got playmakers everywhere. And these guys are playing great, they play hard, they’re some of the best players at their position in the league. We drafted two amazing tackles, we signed a first-class center who’s done a heck of a job, our running game is coming along, obviously we got to continue to build in all areas, but we’re getting better.

“I mean I’m just surrounded by playmakers, and it’s a luxury to be in this offense.”

So Smith gave credit to his teammates there, which a quarterback always should after a game like that, but that first thing he said really stood out. So I looked it up. His last game as a Jet, he had a perfect passer rating. In two games, and one start, with the Giants, his rating was 84.5. His rating through 10 games, and eight starts, in Seattle is 109.1.

Now, I don’t know that he’ll sustain it. We’ve seen quarterbacks get off to hot starts with new teams in the past, then have opponents adjust, and level off. So that could happen. But if Smith really is as good as he’s shown—with his improved accuracy and timing in the passing game so apparent? Then, we really do have something to talk about here.

The reason why is because it’s so rare that a player gets a chance to accumulate experience, sit for a while, then play again. Looking at that logically, that would give you a chance to make your mistakes early, learn from someone else, apply those lessons to your game, and really put all of it to work. Smith, who’s always had physical ability, got six years as a backup and really seems to have benefited from it. Are there others like Smith? Maybe someone like Teddy Bridgewater could be another one? It’s an interesting question.

Watch the NFL with fuboTV. Start your free trial today.

From Robert Canum Sr. (@stripman55): Sean Payton to the Broncos?

Robert, I don’t think so, at this point. But this is a good place to mention how, whether it’s the Broncos or the Chargers or the Cardinals or the Cowboys or whomever else, whenever a team has a coach hit a rough patch, this is going to come up. And the landscape to establish here for a team to land Payton, to me, is pretty simple. Four things I believe would have to be in place to get him in 2023 …

1) A solid roster, preferably with a franchise quarterback or a clear path to one.

2) A geographic location desirable to Payton (he has family in Texas and California).

3) A team that will pay a coach at the top of the market.

4) A team the Saints would be willing to do a deal with.

The last one isn’t irrelevant, by the way. The Saints aren’t exactly loaded with picks over the next couple of years (the Saints don’t have a first-rounder next year or a second-rounder the year after), so Payton’s desire to get back in is a good way for them to replenish their resources. And obviously, there are some teams that they’re not going to want Payton going to.

From Kevin T. Brown (@KevTBrown): Who’s buying and who’s selling at trade deadline? Which players do you see moving?

Kevin, the Panthers are obviously the first team up, especially considering they have only four picks, as it stands, in 2023, and five in ’24, and, of course, because they’re in the midst of a regime change. As we said in the MAQB this week, DE Brian Burns and WR D.J. Moore are the two who have elicited the most outside trade interest. To this point, Carolina has resisted starting a fire sale. We’ll see whether that changes.

The Bears are another team I’d watch, just based on it being the first year for a new group, and the way I think GM Ryan Poles, whose background is in college scouting, will value draft picks. Robert Quinn would be the most obvious name—an older guy who won’t be around long term who’s got gas left in the tank and plays a premium position. Eddie Jackson would be another I think teams would call on. And because of his contract status, Roquan Smith seems to be another name to watch.

I’d have had my radar up for the Seahawks before the year, but they’re playing well, and most of their key pieces are really young. Maybe the Commanders or Steelers would listen to some older players if things don’t improve.

As for teams looking to buy, the Packers and Bucs would be at the top of the list, because of the championship windows they’re in that won’t stay open forever (hello, Odell). The Bills are another team that I think would be aggressive if the right opportunity arose. And you always have to throw the Rams in there, though I do wonder whether they stumble much longer if this is the year they want to hang on to draft capital, with some holes to fill.

From Josh Fowler (@iamjoshfowler): Is it true you’re big on Cleveland radio, once a week?

Josh, you got that right.

(Is this an inside Boston sports radio joke? Maybe.)

From smatt (@Smitty_Matt): When does the Dan Campbell feel-good wear off if they don’t start winning?

Smitty, I think Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes get the standard three-year run. History tells us that most coaches, especially those in total rebuilds, are given at least that much, absent a real meltdown around them. After that, though? It’s increasingly rare that a team will keep a guy around without at least one playoff berth.

To try to prove that out, I looked at the last decade, encompassing hiring cycles from 2010–19. In that time frame, 68 full-time head coaches were hired by the 32 teams. A grand total of six made it to a fourth year without making the playoffs in their first three. Those six are …

• Jason Garrett, hired full-time in 2011, went 8–8 three straight years in Dallas, made it to a fourth, then went 12–4 in ’14. He lasted nine years, making the playoffs three times.

• Joe Philbin went 7–9, 8–8 and 8–8 in his first three years in Miami (2012–14), and was fired four games into his fourth year.

• Jeff Fisher was hired by the Rams in 2012, went 7-8-1, 7–9 and 6–10 in Years 1, 2 and 3, and was retained in ’15, the team’s last season in St. Louis. He was fired in ’16 in L.A.

• Gus Bradley was plucked from Seattle by new Jaguars owner Shad Khan in 2013, as the team planned a down-to-the-studs rebuild. He went 4–12, 3–13 and 5–11, and was fired at 2–12 in ’16.

• Todd Bowles’s 2015 hire led to a first-year 10–6 mark for the Jets. A funky halfway rebuild of an aging roster cost him from there. He went 5–11, 5–11 and 4–12 the next three years.

• Jon Gruden, recipient of a 10-year, $100 million deal, was retained in 2021 after going 4–12, 7–9, and 8–8 from ’18–20. He was fired amid the email scandal at 3–2 last fall.

So of those, only Gruden is from the four most recent years of that period. And looking at the five hires from 2020, Rhule and Joe Judge are already fired, and Rivera, Kevin Stefanski, and Mike McCarthy have made the playoffs. Which means Gruden will wind up being the only one from a five-year period.

Which means Campbell, and by extension Holmes, have this year and next to get it right. And the good news is there’s no lack of resources to do with, with two first-round picks and plenty of cap space for the Lions to play with in the spring.

From Kevin Pickett (@kpick38): Bert, will the NFL review these terrible roughing-the-passer calls during the season and make serious changes? I hate replay but could that be an option?

From Billy Conway (@bonescon): Why can’t roughing-the-passer violations just be dealt with through fines and/or suspensions after the league has had ample time to review the play? These calls are game altering and usually have zero impact on the outcome of the play so why enforce on the field?

Kevin and Billy, if anything happens, I think it’s a point of emphasis delivered at next week’s league meeting. My guess is they won’t want to do anything significant that would be perceived as a step back in the area of player safety. But I think there is a way to manage this quietly so there are fewer situations like the ones involving Chris Jones and Grady Jarrett this week.

To me, the command center in New York is the answer. They have a direct line to the officials. I’d tell them to get more aggressive in these situations about correcting calls on the field. And the beauty of that is no one really has to know about it.

I’ve told this story before, but there was a situation that went the other way in a Ravens-Steelers game a few years back. It was the one where Earl Thomas knocked Mason Rudolph out with a high hit. If you go back and watch the broadcast, you’ll see that when the game went to break, after the hit and as Rudolph lay on the ground, there was no flag. They came back from the break and there was one thrown. In between, the Ravens coaches ask why the flag was dropped so late. The answer—a call came from the booth.

So if they could correct a call that missed a penalty that way, I figure they can correct a call that went the other way, too. Or at least they should be able to.

From Mike Durand (@MikeyD_31): Is Mac Jones the guy for the Patriots going forward given Bailey Zappe’s sudden rise? Where is the line of demarcation for such a thing happening?

Mike, it definitely got my attention that, on WEEI in Boston on Monday, Bill Belichick was given the opportunity to slam the door shut on this, and declare, Mac Jones is our starter, and he declined to do so. And for those who say Belichick always operates that way, that’s not really the case. He snorted at a reporter in 2014 who asked whether Jimmy Garoppolo being inserted into the lineup with 10 minutes left in a blowout could mean more than just that, and repeated over and over during the ’21 offseason that Cam Newton was his starter.

So do I think Jones is being replaced? No, I don’t. But I do think Belichick could be using the natural opportunity here to send the message to a first-round pick that he has to keep earning his place as the starting quarterback. And I don’t think it’s far-fetched to consider that Jones chafing at some offensive changes, and there being some push-and-pull on the handling of his high-ankle sprain, could be contributing to Belichick doing this.

This much I know—Belichick didn’t handle it that way for no reason. He chooses his words pretty carefully. This wasn’t a mistake.

From Ricker81 (@D_Ricker81): Thoughts on the Giants compared to preseason expectations? What do you believe the long-term future holds for Jones/Barkley with the team?

Ricker, it’s a good team with more talent than I gave it credit for. I saw this as a full-on rebuild a couple of months ago. I think it’s more of a competitive retool now. And I think there are players there held over from the Dave Gettleman era who could be long-termers with the new regime—with Andrew Thomas, Kadarius Toney, Azeez Ojulari and Xavier McKinney in that category (both Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones have played well, but are in contract years, so their situations are a lot more complicated).

In a watered-down NFC, this very well could be a playoff team. Part of that is Brian Daboll doing a heck of a job. But there is better talent in place than many of us realize, which makes me think this could set up a quicker turnaround (depending on what happens at quarterback) than we all realized. And by that, I mean, with a couple of strong drafts, and a quarterback, this could be a very real contender by 2024.

From Greg (@panther1gb89): I know it’s early October, but your guess for new Panthers coach in ’23?

It’s really early. We still don’t know exactly who’ll be running the search. So any guesses would be premature.

But I really like the idea of Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris for this one (and I’m not saying that means other candidates aren’t qualified). There are a couple of reasons for it. First, he does have pretty extensive experience in the division (from Tampa Bay and Atlanta). The other thing is that David Tepper kept talking about building a culture. Morris comes from perhaps the NFL’s best in that department in L.A., has worked in places that both had it and didn’t, and has the personality to be a unifying force.

So mark Morris down as one name that works there. Another would be Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who’s similar to (and close with) Morris, and worked with Carolina GM Scott Fitterer over two stints in Seattle. And if you’re fixated on getting an offensive coach, and owner Tepper might wind up there, then Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, Giants offensive coordinator Mike Kafka or Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan would have merit as candidates.

From Kris Hudson (@KrisHudsonCRE): AB, wouldn’t it make more sense for the NFL to put a franchise in Mexico City before it expands to Europe?

Kris, this really comes down to money. London, from a business standpoint, a television distribution standpoint and now a stadium standpoint just makes the most sense for the league, and has for a long time, which is why, from 2007 to ’15, the International Series was focused solely on the UK, and why it still has triple the number of games that Mexico or Germany gets.

This was always a business proposition from the league. For the NFL to add or move teams to a new market, that market needs to add enough to the league’s bottom line to add to each percentage of the pie that the teams take home. In other words, if they were going to add a 33rd team, and the league was making $32 billion, the 33rd team would have to get the number well past $33 billion for the other owners to rubber-stamp its addition.

There’s a much better chance of that happening in London than in Mexico City.

From Quinn (@QuinnNaps): Does Brandon Staley have buy-in from his players re: his 4th down decisions? Do you know from sources whether more players have concerns like Keenan Allen voiced?

Quinn, I think Staley will be fine. He’s remarkably clear with his players, and transparent with the outside world, with these decisions, and really that’s what players are looking for. I’m sure it was frustrating for Keenan Allen, watching injured from 2,500 miles away. But I think if he were in the game, he’d have felt differently, and it sounds like Staley and him are good now.

And if you’re looking for the full explanation of the decision, Staley and I talked right after the game. We got it in the MMQB column Monday. Here it is again …

“Yeah, we just came here to finish the game with the ball, and third down, tried to have a run up with a pass solution against a loaded box, and tried to split it,” he said. “Didn’t happen. And we knew that they were gonna have to deny the ball on fourth-down-and-short and liked the matchup with Mike [Williams] on the slant, and just felt like that would be the best matchup for us and to finish the game with the ball.

“And the other thing was, I felt like we would be able to cover them and keep them out of [field goal] range [if it failed]. The kicker had missed one. We knew that they were gonna have to throw it. They weren’t gonna be able to run it to get back in it, and I liked our matchups in pass coverage. And we were able to finish it defensively and get out of there.”

So, again, I think Staley will be fine.

More NFL Coverage: