Welcome back everybody and we’re gathered here today for the Week 6 Dynasty Stock Watch. We’re looking for value, we’re looking for leverage, we’re looking for bad, panicky managers. We’re looking for a manager to trade with that would storm off the football field after a heated division rivalry game loss, even if he’s brand new to said rivalry, and knock over a completely innocent guy—metaphorically speaking. And good on Davante Adams for apologizing immediately. But it’s too late to apologize… It’s too late.
Last week, I touched on D.J. Moore’s value and there’s been a whirlwind of speculation after the Panthers fired Matt Rhule. I wrote:
Dynasty managers are just stuck with Mayfield for another few months and hopefully Matt Rhule follows closely behind. I don’t mind trading Moore if you’re in a win-now situation as long as you understand that his underperforming may only last one season. And it’s very likely he’ll see a rebound in value with a regime or QB change. But I’m also not so confident that I would want to buy him, even at this reduced cost. He’s never been elite and I’m not going to trade for a player I believe is at his best as a middle-of-the-road WR2 with a second-year quarterback coming off a serious injury. Incremental improvement seems more likely, rather than a revamp or second wind being found heading into next season.
Well, I got the order wrong; Rhule is gone and Baker Mayfield is still around. This firing does illustrate how quickly narratives can change because with the news of Rhule’s firing, there were rampant trade rumors about Moore, Christian McCaffrey and I’m sure I didn’t see all the rumors floating around Twitter.
Will a coaching change help Mayfield make quicker decisions? Nope. Will it improve his pocket awareness? Nuh uh. Will Moore get targeted more? I wouldn’t count on it. But most of what makes NFL coaches successful is their ability to quickly pivot strategies and adjusting gameplans. The Panthers didn’t seem very nimble in that way, so I’ll be watching if there’s a new offensive direction.
And you may be saying, “So, you’re optimistic now that Rhule is gone, but you also said you’d be fine trading Moore. So obviously you weren’t optimistic last week.” I would just say that I try to bring a certain delicate nuance to player valuation. Notice I said valuation, not evaluation. Like life, there are no right answers in fantasy football. Black and white thinking, or bringing a certain inflexibility of thought, will work against you. So often in comment sections and Twitter replies, I’ll hear people scoff and react negatively to me with “that’s an obvious thing to say” or “you’re overreacting.” I would just remind those folks to keep an open mind. This article is a thought experiment. I’m talking through my thoughts. Think of me as an old dude, wearing a white robe, standing on the steps of the Parthenon in Athens, ruminating on what it all means.
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RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
On the surface, we’re witnessing a bit of a fall from grace. Steelers backup rookie running back Jaylen Warren had more snaps in Week 5 and even before that, Warren was getting a healthy 25 to 30% of snaps in Weeks 1-4. For those looking to jump ship, I don’t blame you. I think any perceived loss of value among the game’s best and dynasty’s most valuable can be especially pronounced. We’re talking about a player who likely commanded close to three future firsts in trade value a few months ago being reduced to a future fist and second. Allow me to pump the brakes. Kenny Pickett has one start and we can’t—nay—shouldn’t draw any early conclusions. At just 24 years old, even given the short shelf life of running backs, we still have at least a good four-year window of peak Najee ahead of us.
This situation just screams buy-low. For all that’s made of how bad the Steelers’ offensive line is, PFF rates their pass blocking at 68.9 (ninth-best) and run blocking at 58.5 (19th). Below average isn’t the end of the world. You prefer the Bengals’ offensive line? Trust me, it can get worse. And if the wheels come off and Pittsburgh opts to move on from Mike Tomlin—nobody’s untouchable!—it’s just further carves into Harris’s perceived value, deepening the well of value in this buy-low opportunity. I’d actually recommended waiting a little longer for a few more bad games for his price to really bottom out. Let Harris managers sweat it out as his value tanks. Then we can swoop in. I wouldn’t recommend a lowball offer, just be very selective when you make that first offer. If you offer more than my price check now, it’ll be harder to get him on the cheap after a month.
Price check: 2023 mid first
Win-now: Hold
Rebuild: Buy
RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Almost nothing is going your way if you’ve got Javonte Williams. Melvin Gordon was brought back sort of last minute during the offseason, quickly dashing our collective hopes Williams would have the backfield to himself. The new car smell of Russell Wilson didn’t last long once he hit the field and now the car stinks. Now a torn ACL and LCL burn away one of Williams’s prime years and there’s no guarantee he’ll be ready for Week 1 of the 2023 season. After seeing how long it took J.K. Dobbins to return from his torn ACL, I don’t blame any dynasty manager that feels compelled to move on. But Dobbins is a perfect example. The Ravens still have the kid gloves on as they manage his touches, but Dobbins looks just fine to me. I don’t see a decline.
I look at it like this: Based on Dobbins’s timetable, Williams won’t be back until December of the 2023 season. He’s essentially lost about 20 games from his career. But he’ll only be 23 next year, he still has a good five years left. Does anybody think head coach Nathaniel Hackett or Wilson will last that long if they stay on their current track? Gordon is on a one-year deal, Mike Boone could emerge but the jury’s still out. They signed Latavius Murray, so the cupboard is bare. When Williams comes back, the backfield is his again and they’ll sign a veteran for insurance. He’ll be right back where he was at the top of the depth chart or worst-case, Denver uses a second- or third-round pick on a running back in the 2023 NFL Draft and as Williams gets his feet under him again next year, his trade value will rebound. Saquon Barkley was out for how long? Derrick Henry missed half a season last year. Christian McCaffrey was out for almost two seasons. This is the life of an NFL running back. If you don’t have the stomach for an ACL here or an Achilles’ there, you’re going to be trading away good young talent almost every season chasing the next big thing. Look, if a 28-year-old running back tears his ACL his value is toast and I would sympathize with trading away a failed asset. Trading Williams is a cut-and-run and on principle, I can’t vouch for it.
Price check: 2023 mid first
Win-now: Hold
Rebuild: Buy
Dynasty stock watch accounting
• While my opinions have been less bold this season compared to last, I’m killing it. Week 1, I recommended Jeff Wilson Jr. as a buy and that was before Elijah Mitchell’s injury. I once again touted having George Pickens as my rookie WR1 in the preseason. And while the window was short, when David Montgomery was healthy to start the season, his value rebounded until it didn’t when he got hurt. If you successfully traded him before he got hurt, you definitely extracted max value.
• In Week 2, I pumped the brakes hard on dynasty managers buying into Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson. Samuel is still doing relatively well as a flex-caliber player, but wasn’t that already his ceiling? Dotson, like most of the Commanders offense, is hit or miss. But after Week 1, there were dynasty managers touting like they’d just landed the next Justin Jefferson—and yes, this interaction really happened to me. How quickly they fall. That’s what you get for buying magic beans from Carson Wentz. I compared Breece Hall to Nick Chubb, though I can see how this comparison might not read. I should’ve said more. I also touted Isiah Pacheco but we’re going to have to be patient with that one. My main writeups focused on holding Barkley, buying and holding both Cam Akers and Dameon Pierce. I still think Akers is the guy and Pierce quickly squashed any notion he wasn’t the Texans’ lead back after disappearing in Week 1.
• In Week 3, I dumped on Tom Brady, said to hold CeeDee Lamb and sell Trey Lance in a win-now, but keep in rebuilds and superflex leagues. I said I’d love to trade for Dobbins then, given how well the Ravens were (and are) playing.
My middling, rambling thoughts are doing mostly well. Just trying to keep myself honest. When I whiff on a take, and it’s inevitable, I’ll be sure to point it out.
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